Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump's plan to gerrymander a win in the 2026 election is not working entirely as planned. California is holding a referendum next week, Proposition 50, which would redraw the map to roughly balance out what Texas did. Now Virginia is trying to pull a similar maneuver.
In Virginia, it is a bit more complicated because, like California, it has an independent redistricting commission. However, to get rid of it, the legislature must approve the change in two consecutive sessions. Democrats narrowly control both chambers now and are likely to continue their control of the House of Delegates after next week's elections, when all 51 Democrats and all 49 Republicans are up. The state Senate, where the Democrats have a 21-19 majority, is not up this year.
If the legislature passes the bill it is now working on in this session, it could vote on it again in the next session, as early as January, and then put a constitutional amendment before the voters early next year. No gubernatorial signature required. With a bit of help from Dave's Redistricting app, the Democrats could conceivably pick up as many as three House seats in Virginia. The current map is 6D, 5R, but with some creativity, 9D, 2R might be doable.
The net result of all this sturm und drang could be that the Republicans end up netting maybe 1-3 seats nationwide. But make the voters absolutely hair-tearing furious. They hate this stuff. This could give the next Democratic trifecta the cover it needs to end gerrymandering once and for all by having Congress decide how the maps are drawn. This could be by independent commissions in every state, by having all representatives elected statewide by proportional representation, or something else. Since Republicans control more maps than Democrats do, getting rid of all gerrymandering would help the Democrats. We don't know how this will play out in the next 4 years, but as we have noted before, be careful what you wish for. (V)