Dem
47
GOP
53
In the majority of states, it is possible to predict the winner of a Senate election before the voting even starts. The major exceptions are the SSS (Seven Swing States). These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In those states, in theory, Senate races can go either way. However, something odd is going on there. Since Donald Trump took office in 2017, there have been 21 Senate elections in these swing states. You might expect that since they are swing states, one party would have won around 11 and the other would have won around 10. That is not the case. The Democrats have won 17 and the Republicans have won 4. And in the 4 years with Senate elections post 2016, Trump has been on the ballot in half of them. Still the Republicans are batting only .190 here. Does this have implications for 2026? It might.
Here are the Senate races in the swing states for 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024:
| Year | State | Democrat | Dem. Pct. | Republican | Rep. Pct | Winner |
| 2018 | Arizona | Krysten Sinema (D) | 50% | Martha McSally (R) | 48% | Democrat |
| 2018 | Michigan | Debbie Stabenow (D) | 52% | John James (R) | 46% | Democrat |
| 2018 | Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | 50% | Dean Heller (R) | 45% | Democrat |
| 2018 | Pennsylvania | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | 56% | Lou Barletta (R) | 43% | Democrat |
| 2018 | Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (D) | 56% | Leah Vukmir (R) | 45% | Democrat |
| 2020 | Arizona | Mark Kelly (D) | 51% | Martha McSally (R) | 49% | Democrat |
| 2020 | Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | 51% | David Perdue (R) | 49% | Democrat |
| 2020 | Georgia | Raphael Warnock (D) | 51% | Kelly Loeffler (R) | 49% | Democrat |
| 2020 | Michigan | Gary Peters (D) | 50% | John James (R) | 48% | Democrat |
| 2020 | North Carolina | Cal Cunningham (D) | 47% | Thom Tillis (R) | 49% | Republican |
| 2022 | Arizona | Mark Kelly (D) | 51% | Blake Masters (R) | 47% | Democrat |
| 2022 | Georgia | Raphael Warnock (D) | 51% | Herschel Walker (R) | 49% | Democrat |
| 2022 | Nevada | Catherine Cortez Masto (D) | 49% | Adam Laxalt (R) | 48% | Democrat |
| 2022 | North Carolina | Cheri Beasley (D) | 47% | Ted Budd (R) | 51% | Republican |
| 2022 | Pennsylvania | John Fetterman (D) | 51% | Mehmet Oz (R) | 46% | Democrat |
| 2022 | Wisconsin | Mandela Barnes (D) | 49% | Ron Johnson (R) | 50% | Republican |
| 2024 | Arizona | Ruben Gallego (D) | 50% | Kari Lake (R) | 48% | Democrat |
| 2024 | Michigan | Elissa Slotkin (D) | 49% | Mike Rogers (R) | 48% | Democrat |
| 2024 | Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | 48% | Sam Brown (R) | 46% | Democrat |
| 2024 | Pennsylvania | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | 49% | David McCormick (R) | 49% | Republican |
| 2024 | Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin | 49% | Eric Hovde (R) | 48% | Democrat |
Do these results tell us much about 2026? As luck would have it, four of the swing states (Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) don't have a Senate election next year. Three of them do, namely Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina. Of these, the latter two are open-seat races, which make them even more competitive. Three Republicans are running for the nomination in Georgia, so general-election polling doesn't mean much yet. Still, incumbent Jon Ossoff is ahead of all three of them so far. That could obviously change when he gets an actual opponent. Still, it is tough to beat an incumbent and midterms are generally painful for the president's party.
In Michigan, so far the only serious Republican who is in is Mike Rogers, who ran in 2024 and lost. The Democrats have two candidates battling it out, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Rep. Haley Stevens. Most initial polling has Stevens beating Rogers but Rogers beating McMorrow. Still, the margins are small and it's early in the cycle.
In North Carolina, the race is set. It is former governor Roy Cooper vs. former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. Whatley has never run for public office before, and starting in a race against a guy who has won statewide six times in a row is probably not the ideal way to commence a Senate career. There have been six polls of the race so far, and Cooper has substantial leads in five, with one July poll showing a tie. (V)