Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump has talked on and off about getting a third term. He has already defied the Fourteenth Amendment (birthright citizenship), so why not defy the Twenty-Second Amendment (two terms) as well? Steve Bannon has said he has a secret plan, but Bannon loves to own the libs and get them into a tizzy, so he may be talking out his rear end. Certainly, on the way to South Korea, Trump said it is perfectly clear he can't run again. Literally: "Based on what I read, I guess, I'm not allowed to run. So we'll see what happens."
Trump really wants a third term. Badly. He knows that even if no Democrat runs on a platform of retribution, the winner will be under enormous pressure to put him on trial and get a conviction. There are probably Democratic lawyers already compiling a list of possible charges. It has to be an actual statute, though. Generally abusing his power and being mean isn't good enough for a conviction. By squeezing lower-level officials, it would probably be easy to collect plenty of testimony to prove most crimes, if needed. If the Supreme Court voided a conviction on the grounds that the president can do anything he f**king wants to do, the president could declare Trump to be a terrorist and ship him off to Guantanamo Bay. Alternatively, if the Democrats have the trifecta, they could establish a carve-out to the filibuster for expanding the Supreme Court, expand it, charge Trump with something different, and try again. Additionally, there could be hundreds of civil lawsuits against Trump that could bankrupt him.
Trump knows that the White House switched parties in 2016, 2020, and 2024. People are very unhappy with the direction of the country now, and that could be an omen that it will switch again. Democrats are desperate to end the Trump era and will likely take into account "probability of winning" when choosing their own nominee in 2028. During the primaries, pollsters will probably run polls pitting each Democrat against J.D. Vance and other potential Republican nominees and those polls could dominate the primaries. "I can beat Vance" would be a pretty strong argument for any Democrat.
Note that there are at least one or two other potential routes to a third term besides being elected president. First, the GOP ticket could MAYBE be Vance/Trump. If the ticket wins, Vance could resign, making Trump president. Then Trump could nominate Vance to be veep for being such an obedient lapdog. However, there is a whole cluster of flies in the ointment here. The Twelfth Amendment includes the sentence: "But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States." Is Trump "ineligible to the office"? He is ineligible to be elected, but no Amendment addresses his eligibility to serve. If five Supreme Court justices rule that while he is not eligible to be elected, there is nothing there about serving, he's got his third, fourth, and fifth terms if he lives long enough.
A second problem is that Vance can't be trusted. Suppose that in the afternoon of Jan. 20, 2029, Vance were to call Trump and say: "I've changed my mind. I'm not resigning." Then Vance is president. End of story. Another guy who was pretty much as slimy as Vance is, namely Aaron Burr, almost became president under similar circumstances in 1800. A third problem is that people are not happy with the direction of the country. Despite the Democrats being in disarray, they could nominate a popular candidate and he or she could win. We think it will be a "he," though, since the "she-type" candidates are 0-2 and we suspect Democratic primary voters will decide this is not the time to take big risks. These issues aside, Trump has said the VP-route is too cute for him, making the first time that the words "Trump" and "cute" appeared in the same sentence.
If the veep route is out, there is another, more-convoluted, route that is likely legal. On Jan. 3, 2029, Trump could be elected speaker of the House. There are no constitutional barriers to that, not age, not even nationality. If the House elects Prince Louis (7) as speaker and mom and pop agree, then it is Speaker Louis. Then, on Jan. 20, 2029, both the newly elected president and vice president resign, making the speaker president. Again, no amendment bans anyone from serving a third term, just getting elected. Of course, this scenario requires Republican control of the House and a president and vice president who are willing to play ball. A ticket of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner (two for the price of one!) or Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr. would probably play ball, but could they get elected if the Democrats field a serious candidate? It's unlikely, but is a theoretical possibility.
That said, there are flies in the ointment here, as well. First, it would obviously require a Republican majority in the House, which might happen in 2029, but might not. Further, if the speaker becomes president, they are only "acting president," and they have to give up the job once a VP is confirmed. So, Trump could only hold onto the office in this scenario without a VP, putting his 80+-year-old heartbeat as the only thing between the next Speaker, or the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, and the presidency. If the House were to change majorities, or the Senate were to be in Democratic control, the red team could end up handing over the presidency to the blue team under these circumstances, were Trump to go to the big, golden toilet in the sky.
Finally, another option is repealing the Twenty-Second Amendment before 2028. Good luck with getting 67% of both chambers of Congress and then 38 states on board with that. (V)