Dem
47
GOP
53
From the oral hearing earlier this month, it seems likely that the Supreme Court will gut the last bit of the Voting Rights Act. After all, in the modern era, the Supreme Court, not Congress, gets to decide what's the law. In the expectation that indeed the VRA will go the way of the dodo, a number of Southern states are already working on plans to gerrymander their maps even more, to make sure no district has enough Black voters to elect a representative. Since most white voters are Republicans and virtually all Black voters are Democrats in the South, it's not hard to do. If a state is 70% white and 30% Black, all that is needed is to make every district 70/30 and bingo! It is a bit trickier than that because Blacks tend to cluster in cities, but with some creative mapmaking, it is doable to make every district majority-white.
They are not the slightest bit shy about it, either. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (R-SC) said: "If we could have a clean sweep, I would love that." That would mean eliminating the seat of long-time Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC). Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) is running for governor and is even more aggressive. He doesn't even see the need for waiting for the Court. Just do it now.
Democrats don't like it but have little power to prevent it. John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said: "Many states across the South are already licking their chops to try and prepare to racially gerrymander maps as quickly as possible."
Florida will be even worse than South Carolina. There are currently eight Democrats in Congress from Florida (vs. one from South Carolina). Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) had a big hand in drawing the current (wildly gerrymandered) map, so he has some experience at this. He's game for another round if the VRA goes by the wayside. One problem is that Florida's Constitution prohibits drawing maps for partisan gain. On the other hand, DeSantis appointed five of the seven Florida Supreme Court justices. Charlie Crist appointed the other two, back when he was a Republican. A second, more serious issue, is the timeline. Unless the U.S. Supreme Court rules very quickly, it may not be possible to pull off a new gerrymander in time for 2026.
Texas, Missouri and North Carolina have already re-gerrymandered their maps this year. It is still pending in a few states, and if the VRA is killed in November, the dam will break and a dozen Republican states will get going on it. (V)