Oct.31

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Today in MAGA: Better Dead than Red?

As we have pointed out many times, Donald Trump has made clear that the last time that America was "great," and therefore the time he wants to return to, is the 1950s. This week, in yet another way, he moved the U.S. closer to that "goal," announcing that America would resume nuclear weapons tests for the first time in over 30 years.

Let's start with the actual announcement that Trump made. Like any true statesman, he used his personal, fact-free social media site:

The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

This was posted about an hour before Trump's high-profile photo-op/meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

As we have mentioned once or twice in the past, (Z) does an exercise with students where he asks them to grade several essays. One of them is a real, A-level essay from a student who has agreed to share their work anonymously. A second one is written, by him, to include just about every common essay mistake possible. A third one is written by ChatGPT. If you were trying to create a nuclear policy tweet that was the equivalent of that second essay—just about every mistake possible—this is the tweet you might end up with.

Let us run down some of the errors and problematic ambiguities, roughly in the order they appear:

• The United States does NOT have more nuclear weapons than any other country. Russia has over 5,500 of them, the U.S. has a bit more than 5,000.
  
  
• The latest update and renovation of existing weapons was conducted on the orders of, and largely during the term of, Barack Obama.
  
  
• China's nuclear stockpile is growing, but it's estimated it will be up to only 1,000 warheads by 2030. That's a scary amount, but it's not close to "even" with the U.S.
  
  
• There is no country, other than North Korea, that has tested nuclear warheads in almost 30 years. While it could have been done in secret, this is not likely, because it's not easy to hide AND because it's not a smart choice. Testing nuclear warheads risks re-igniting the arms race, which nobody particularly wants, and is also unnecessary, because nations can learn what they need to learn with lab tests and computer simulations.
  
  It is possible that Trump is actually referring to testing the missiles that deliver nuclear warheads. If so, the U.S. is already doing regular tests of that sort, as are China and Russia. So, whatever aspect of nuclear arms he was referring to, his tweet is either wrong or nonsensical or both.
  
  
• The Department of War, even if you grant Trump his preferred name for the Department of Defense, does not manage the nation's nuclear stockpile. The Department of Energy does. Even Rick Perry eventually figured that out.

In short, pretty much the only thing Trump got right was his name. Gold star?

Meanwhile, as with so many Trump "policy" initiatives, pretty much everyone is trying to figure out what put this notion into his head. That includes many of his advisers, who apparently had no idea this was coming down the pike. Here are our best guesses as to what's going on:

• China, Option 1: As we note above, Trump made this announcement about an hour before meeting with Xi. It's possible it was meant to somehow be a power play, as part of the art of the (Chinese) deal. We have never actually read the book that was ghostwritten for Trump, but we have no doubt it urges negotiators to put up a show of strength so as to gain an advantage at the bargaining table. If this was Trump's thinking, however, then it was dumb. First, there is no way that trickery like that is going to work on Xi. Second, the deal they signed was already hammered out by their underlings before they sat down. Their meeting was really just a photo-op, not a negotiating session.
  
  
• China, Option 2: Nearly all of the commentary says that Trump came out on the short end of the new China deal. First, because he met Xi face-to-face, and in Asia. That is playing according to Xi's rules. Second, because Trump agreed to slash tariff rates, and the main concession he got in return was a vague (and hard to enforce) promise to combat fentanyl trafficking. Third, because backing off the trade war is another TACO moment. So, the nuclear thing might have been to change the narrative.
  
  
• Russia: Obviously, when it comes to the arms race, Russia is much more a rival than China is, because of Russia's larger stockpile and because of its proximity to both Europe and the U.S. There is absolutely no evidence that the Russians have resumed testing nuclear warheads (and you can bet the U.S. has satellites keeping a close eye on the place where the Russians would be likely to do so, namely Siberia). However, the Russians have been testing nuclear-powered missiles. This does not change the missiles' destructive potential, it just changes their fuel source (to one that American scientists dismissed as unreliable many years ago). It's possible that Trump heard about this development, and misunderstood its implications.
  
  
• BSD: Trump, in general, likes to do things that ostensibly remind the world of his big, swinging di**. So, maybe he (and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth?) cooked this up as a way to "intimidate" the world in general (or Russia in particular).
  
  
• Distraction: Every column inch, pixel, tweet, panel discussion, minute of news broadcast, etc., that is dedicated to nuclear arms policy is one less column inch, pixel, tweet, panel discussion, minute of news broadcast, etc. that is dedicated to Jeffrey Epstein.
  
  
• MAGA: We started with this, but it's at least possible that Trump has warm memories of the 1950s and prosperity and his teenage years, and he has somehow associated them with the nuclear arms race and the nuclear testing of that era. So, just as he has somehow decided tariffs are inherently a good thing, maybe his gut tells him that nuclear testing is inherently a good thing. He may not be aware that, even in the 1950s, they knew they might be marching on the path to destruction. The thinking was that the risk was worth it, because being dead was a better option than being communist (hence, "Better dead than red").
  
  
• Sundowning: This is such a ridiculous possibility that we dislike even writing it. Still, Trump has been on an arduous trip in a part of the world where his circadian rhythms are certainly out of whack. He's also shown a tendency to become far less mentally focused as he wears down. Finally, about 48 hours after the nuclear weapons tweet, he sent a long, rambling message about how the Senate really needs to invoke the nuclear option and kill the filibuster. That's two policy announcements, both on social media, both while he's probably exhausted, both about "nuclear" topics. Is it possible he somehow got confused? Again, it seems ridiculous. And yet...

Naturally, Republicans in Congress have largely fallen in line behind Trump. Some of them are hawks, and the rest presumably decided that fighting Trump on this is not worth it, since who knows what he really means, and who knows whether he'll follow through, and even if he does, it doesn't actually change things much if the U.S. has enough weapons to wreck Earth 300 times, versus enough weapons to wreck Earth 325 times.

The Democrats, with veteran, astronaut and engineer Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) taking the lead, have pointed out that if the U.S. begins testing warheads again, it will give China and Russia permission to do the same. That is not only dangerous, it also gives them potential opportunities to make up any ground on the U.S., which may not have the largest arsenal, but certainly has the most powerful arsenal. For these reasons, one hopes that the Trump tweet was just hot air (radioactive air?) and that he'll quickly return his focus to his ballroom. (Z)