Sep.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

A Look at the 2028 Democratic Field

Yesterday, we gave a summary of The Hill's ranking of the 2028 Republican presidential field, along with [our comments]. They followed that up with their rundown of the 2028 Democratic field, so let's do what we do, again:

1. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA): He's getting a lot of earned media right now, but he might be too much a "liberal Californian" stereotype to get support in places like the Midwest and the South, which dominate the early part of the primary process. [A fair assessment; it's also not easy to keep your name in the headlines for multiple years on end, particularly if you won't be in office anymore as of January 2027.]
   
   
2. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): She's charismatic, courageous, knows social media, and can win over young voters, and has a platform that might just energize the Democratic base, even though it (and she) will enrage conservatives. [We don't disagree with any of this, but this list is ranked, and we just don't see AOC as the second-most-probable Democratic candidate in 2028, especially since going directly from the House to the White House has only happened once, and that was 145 years ago. She undoubtedly knows that her best move is running for the Senate in 2028.].
   
   
3. Kamala Harris: She's got name recognition and a lot of experience, the question is whether Democrats will see her as someone who did very well under tough circumstances in 2024, or someone who just can't close the deal. [We think she's got a big advantage in that she'll be taken seriously no matter when she declares, and so she doesn't have to worry about keeping her name in the headlines, or her shtick potentially getting stale.]
   
   
4. Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD): He's 50% Gavin Newsom lite (social media trolling of Trump, executive experience) and 50% AOC lite (young, Brown, fairly lefty). [Moore was obviously someone to keep an eye on when he was elected, but he's been pretty quiet since then. That said, he may just be biding his time, and if Donald Trump sends the National Guard to Baltimore, Moore will suddenly become a national figure. Moore is Black and 2028 probably isn't the year for a Black candidate.]
   
   
5. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL): He's also done some sparring with Trump, and Illinois Democrats apparently love him for it. However, a billionaire candidate may be more than some Democratic/working-class voters can swallow. [Maybe it's just our gut feel, but when Pritzker shreds Trump, he seems to be more genuine and less calculated than Newsom. And while we know that "ultra-rich-guys can't be president" was the standard political wisdom for many years, one might want to take note of the fellow who is currently in the White House... substantially on the strength of working-class votes.]
   
   
6. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): She's charismatic and engaging, and has won statewide twice in a purple state. However, she's been rather more cooperative with the Trump administration than the other Democratic governors, in the name of doing what is best for Michigan, and that may come back to haunt her. [If Democratic voters are out for blood, and we think they will be in 2028, her careful dance with the Trump White House really could be a serious problem. Also, like Newsom, she will be out of office as of January 2027.]
   
   
7. Pete Buttigieg: He's good on TV, and educated Democrats love him. [The problem here is that the Democrats don't have to worry about the votes of educated people, and Buttigieg has not shown any particular ability to connect with the other groups the Party is trying to hold on to, or to win back. In particular, Black voters and working-class voters don't like him.]
   
   
8. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA): He is "polished and ambitious," but could be done in by the Gaza issue. [Isn't "polished" just a nice word for "phony"? Shapiro joins Newsom as the two people on this list who strike us as being least genuine. Voters like "authentic." On the other hand, he would carry Pennsylvania and likely Michigan and Wisconsin.]
   
   
9. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT): He's an outspoken Trump critic, but he's also very conventional, and so won't scare off independent/moderate voters. [Please. We don't think Murphy is in the 20 most likely Democratic candidates, much less the Top 10. We don't think The Hill thinks he's Top 10, either. They just needed one milquetoast, Biden-style Democrat for their list.]
   
   
10. Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY): He's won twice in a very red state, the last of those by 5 points. And he's a centrist on most issues, but a lefty on the litmus-testiest issue of them all, abortion. [Some of these folks are, in our view, way too high on the list. Beshear, by contrast, is way too low. Beshear is "safe" like Murphy, he's young like AOC, and he's got a record of winning tough elections like Whitmer. That's quite a package, and we foresee a lot of interest from Democratic primary voters. Could a moderate southern Democratic governor be elected president? Someone should ask Bill Clinton because Jimmy Carter is not available. Besides there have been more Andrews elected president than Gavins, Alexandrias, and Kamalas combined.]

It's an interesting list, but mostly just fat to chew for now. There's an awful lot of time between now and the real start of the 2028 cycle (mid-2027, give or take a couple of months). It is mostly a list of well-known Democrats, but often candidates who are unknown 3 years before the election pop up. (Z)