Dem
47
GOP
53
There have been a few interesting polls in the last week or so, polls interesting enough to be at least worthy of a mention.
We'll start with the poll that is probably the most relevant of the three, and that comes from The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project. Their finding is that Texas AG Ken Paxton (R), who is in the midst of an attempt to primary Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), has an approval rating of 55% among Texas Republican voters. Cornyn, by contrast, has an approval rating of just 42% among those same voters.
That certainly says something... remarkable about Texas MAGA voters. Paxton is a crook and a sleazeball who cheated on his wife left, right and sideways, and who makes a mockery of something like 80% of the Ten Commandments on a regular basis. Cornyn is a normal Republican and a basically decent fellow, and one who has dedicated decades to public service. And yet, 58% of Texas GOPers don't approve. At this point, it's hard to see how Paxton doesn't take Cornyn down. Sometimes, as with the Boston mayoral race above, we add the caveat "unless there's a scandal." But Paxton has had more scandals than he has fingers, and he's bulletproof.
At the same time, while "55% among Republican voters" is certainly better than "42% among Republican voters," it's actually pretty poor overall. Recall that Donald Trump, for example, is at 94% among Republicans, and yet is around 40% with the general electorate. The point here is that the evidence is mounting that this seat really will be in play. It seemed impossible that the Texas GOP could come up with a worse candidate than Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and yet, here we are.
Now, let's jump to the other end of the political spectrum. The latest New York Times/Siena poll gives Zohran Mamdani a commanding lead in a four-way mayoral election; he's the pick of 46% of respondents, as compared to 24% for former governor Andrew Cuomo, 15% for vigilante-lite Curtis Sliwa, and 9% for current mayor Eric Adams. If respondents are given only Cuomo and Mamdani as choices, Mamdani is still on top, 48% to 44%.
On the whole, Mamdani's numbers keep creeping upward. Part of that is presumably that New Yorkers are getting to know him, and some doubters like what they see. But we suspect also that part of it is that Donald Trump has come out strongly against Mamdani, and has floated various schemes for putting the presidential thumb on the scale. We think it is very plausible that some New Yorkers would say "If Trump hates Mamdani, Mamdani must be doing something right" and that others would say "I don't care about the candidates, I just want an opportunity to poke Trump in the eye." If Trump was smart (he isn't), he would shut his mouth and stay out of it. Or he could quietly ask some big Republican donors to quietly toss some money in a super PAC that supports Cuomo. Anyhow, it sure looks like Mamdani is going to cruise to victory.
And finally, there is also a new poll, from St. Anselm, of the 2028 New Hampshire primaries. On the Republican side, J.D. Vance is dominating all comers. He's got the backing of 56% of New Hampshire Republicans, and nobody else breaks double digits. On the Democratic side, Pete Buttigieg and and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) were each the choice of 23% of respondents, followed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois (9%), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York (7%), and Kamala Harris (6%).
It's interesting that Harris, who clearly has wide name recognition, is not doing too well. Beyond that, undoubtedly Buttigieg and Newsom are both happy to hear they're doing well in a key early state. That said, don't read too much into that. New Hampshire is the fifth-most educated state and the fourth whitest state. These are Buttigieg's voters (and, to a large extent, Newsom's voters, too). Buttigieg has to show he can break through with voters who are not white and educated; Newsom has to show he can break through with voters who are not coastal and well-to-do. Until one or the other provides those proofs of concept, we would not want to wager money that they will be the 2028 nominee. Also, it is all about name recognition so far. Only political junkies in the Granite State know who Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) or Gov Andy Beshear (D-KY) are. (Z)