Dem
47
GOP
53
The government will shut down if funding for the new fiscal year is not approved by midnight Sept. 30. Appropriations bills can be filibustered in the Senate, so the Republicans need seven Democratic votes there. The Democratic base wants to use this leverage to force the Republicans to rein in Donald Trump or make structural changes, like making recission bills subject to filibusters. However, the Democratic leadership appears to be caving long before the deadline, in exchange for an extension of health insurance subsidies for 9 months. This is the type of deal the Republicans would never accept—a bit of extra funding but no changes in the rules.
Democratic leaders think that the 20 million people who will benefit from keeping the health insurance subsidies will be eternally grateful to them, and if not eternally, at least until Nov. 3, 2026. However many rank-and-file Democratic House members don't believe this. They believe that since voters won't see any change with current policy, they are not going to suddenly reward the Democrats for keeping the status quo. Voters won't even realize there was a battle and the Democrats got some minor concession in return for their not shutting the government down. This will make the Democratic base even angrier than it already is. Many Democratic representatives have just gotten back from a month of hearing constituents telling them to stand up and fight the Republicans. Caving like this in advance is not exactly what the constituents want.
However, there is no deal yet. The Freedom Caucus does not want to extend the subsidies at all. In fact, they would prefer abolishing all of them. Progressive Democrats who see this as a lost opportunity to force the Republicans to rein in Trump aren't going to like it either. So it is not sure the deal will work. What often happens in this situation is kicking the can down the road with a continuing resolution to continue funding the government at current levels for a few weeks. Of course, that solves nothing, but it takes the pressure off for a short time. (V)