Dem
47
GOP
53
Generally, we do not take too much notice of squabbling over budget proposals during the phase where leaders on both sides are negotiating through the press. Generally, it's not until the actual sausage making gets underway that it's worthwhile to pay attention. However, a government shutdown is looming on September 30, and the current round of bickering looks like it might end up being the basic framework for the next couple of weeks. So, we'll talk about what's going on, at least a little bit.
Yesterday, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) released what he described as a "basically clean" stopgap bill that would fund the government for 7 more weeks, at which point this whole drama would be repeated. The careful reader might notice that there's a fair bit of difference between "clean" and "basically clean." If we add in the fact that the proposed bill is 91 pages, that further illustrates that it's not so "clean," after all.
Broadly speaking, the Republicans are not trying to sneak anything really big through, either in terms of outlays or in terms of policy changes. Much of the 91 pages is devoted to spending more money on security for politicians, and some of the rest is unlocking the Washington, DC, funding that is currently tied up in silly rules and red tape. None of it should be terribly objectionable to Democrats.
What IS objectionable, however, is that the Democrats have not been granted the concession they insisted upon, which is an extension of the healthcare subsidies that are about to expire. And so, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (both D-NY) put up a united front yesterday, and said that without that concession, there will be no deal. Johnson's response to this was: "In exchange for their vote to fund the government, some Democrats said they wanted Republicans to repeal our very popular and very effective reforms to the Medicaid program... Zero chance that we will do that."
How Johnson could possibly know the changes are "effective," at this early date, was not explained. As to "popular," his dictionary must have a different definition of that word than ours does, as poll after poll after poll has shown that voters oppose the "big, beautiful bill" by a margin of about 2-to-1, with the Medicaid portions being among the least-liked parts of the package.
In any event, Schumer and Jeffries know very well that rank-and-file Democratic voters very badly want to see some fight out of the party's leaders, even if that fight is unsuccessful (see below for more). This being the case, and given their tone and their words yesterday, we don't think they will roll over for Johnson. Meanwhile, as is usually the case, the Speaker is taking marching orders directly from Donald Trump, so he's not likely to yield, either. We shall see which side blinks first, though it's very possible neither does, and that October begins with the government putting up the "closed" sign. (Z)