Sep.18

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

What Is the Future of the GOP?

Making predictions is hard, especially about the future and even more especially about politics, where a week is a long time. Don't believe that? Think about how things were the day before Charlie Kirk was murdered and how it is a week later. Nevertheless, long-time pros Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen have made an attempt to predict the future of the Republican party. Here it is in brief:

• Turning Point USA - MAGA Integration: A top adviser to Donald Trump said: "We have four years to turn Trump voters into Republican voters." That is a very good point, as quite a few of the (young) voters who pulled the lever for Trump last year are not really partisans. They just like Trump's style. The Republican Party is now going to work its short tail off trying to turn Charlie Kirk's fans into loyal Republicans. Having J.D. Vance host the memorial edition of The Charlie Kirk Show was a first step. Expect a second, third, and further steps.
  
  
• J.D. Vance as Heir Apparent: Vance fully understands that his path to the 2028 nomination will be greatly enhanced if he can inherit Kirk's mantle somehow. He also knows that he is no shoo-in. If 70% of the people in 2028 say the country is heading in the wrong direction, which could easily happen if there is a recession, his argument for "more of the same" will be tough when people like Govs. Brian Kemp (R-GA) and Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) are arguing we need an outsider as president, not someone who lives in the belly of the beast. Vance is finance chair of the RNC, which puts him in daily contact with donors. Basically, he is going to spend the next 3 years working on his campaign. Everything he does should be seen in that light.
  
  
• Marco Rubio Wants to Be the Next Veep: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was a lazy senator, must be drinking Red Bull by the gallon. He is the most active SoS since maybe Henry Kissinger. But unlike Kissinger, who wasn't eligible to be president, Rubio is and is working on it. But he seems to realize that 2028 will not be his year. So his goal seems to be #2 on a Vance/Rubio, Kemp/Rubio, Youngkin/Rubio, or other [X]/Rubio ticket.
  
  
• Susie Wiles Keeps Running the Show: She doesn't seem to have any presidential ambitions herself, but likes running things behind the scenes. She knows Vance and Rubio well and would be first in line to be campaign manager for Vance/Rubio '28 and then continue as chief of staff. Wiles is wily.
  
  
• Don Jr. is a J.D. Fan: Donald Trump Jr. was Vance's biggest supporter in the battle to become Trump Sr.'s running mate in 2024. If he decides to forego a run himself, Junior will be out there plugging for Vance. How much that helps is not entirely clear though, since Donald Sr. thinks Junior is kind of dumb and has a tin ear.
  
  
• It's a Family Matter: The little Trumps are not going away. Don Jr. is a potential presidential candidate in 2028. Who could better run in the Trump lane than another Trump? Eric Trump has a book coming out next month. Lara Trump, aka Mrs. Eric Trump, took a pass on the North Carolina Senate race, but she is still very much in the middle of the action.
  
  
• Podcasts Are the Center of Gravity: The traditional media are shrinking and podcasts are growing. This is especially true for young men, many of whom don't consume much, if any, traditional media but do watch Joe Rogan and other podcasters. Any candidate who captures the hearts and minds of the big podcasters will have a real leg up.
  
  
• MAGA Is Getting Even More Combative: Vance seems to want to out-Trump Trump. While guest-hosting Charlie Kirk's show, he called on MAGA supporters to root out liberals who are "celebrating Charlie's murder" and get them fired. There have been virtually no high-profile Democrats who have celebrated his murder, just a handful of self-centered a**holes on social media. But Vance is playing to the base here. He needs to show that even Yale-educated lawyers who were Silicon Valley venture capitalists can be tough guys. It may not be so easy because the base is pretty good at sniffing out phonies, and Vance is phonier than a three-dollar bill.

Again, even though VandeHei and Allen have been insiders since forever, stuff changes and unexpected events can upset the applecart. A war, a recession, a huge 2026 upset, and other things could invalidate some or all of this in a flash. (V)