Dem
47
GOP
53
In a result that should surprise absolutely nobody, Adelita Grijalva (D), daughter of the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ), won the right to replace her father in the House yesterday. Even by the standards of a D+13 district, the result was a laugher, with Grijalva beating her Republican opponent by nearly 39 points, 68.5% to 29.8%.
With such a closely divided House, the most important implication of this election would usually be its impact on the very thin Republican majority. Certainly that IS important; Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is now down to a 219-214 majority, which means he can afford just two defections (assuming every member votes, and every Democrat votes along party lines). Three Republicans plus the Democrats means a 217-216 loss for whatever bill is under consideration. Things will not improve for the Speaker anytime soon; when an election is held on Nov. 4 to replace the deceased Sylvester Turner in the D+21 TX-18, it will be 219-215, which will push Johnson's margin to one defection. On Dec. 2, if the Democrats don't pull an upset in the R+10 TN-07, which Mark Green vacated in order to pursue some wacky financial scheme, the partisan balance will be 220-215, and the margin will be back up to two. So, Johnson's going to be working without much of a net for a long time, and very likely the rest of this Congress.
Still, the most important storyline here isn't the change in partisan balance in the House. It's the Jeffrey Epstein discharge petition that has been jointly filed by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Ro Khanna (D-CA). Grijalva, who has already said she will sign, will be the magic 218th signature, clearing the way for the measure to be brought to the floor of the House.
Needless to say, House Republicans do not want to cast votes on whether or not to demand the Epstein files from the Department of Justice. If they vote in favor of the measure, they aggravate a president who bears grudges and likes to punish his "enemies" with primary challenges. If they vote against the measure, they will aggravate many voters (including many Republicans) who want the files released. They will also give ammunition to their 2026 opponents, who will say: Why do you want to protect a disgusting pedophile like Jeffrey Epstein? Are you part of the Epstein conspiracy?
There are ways that Trump and/or Johnson could try to head this off at the pass. First, if they can persuade at least one of the 218 people to withdraw their signatures, or to vote against the measure when it comes to the floor, then that would be the easiest option. However, the 214 Democrats are firm, and so is Massie. That leaves Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Nancy Mace (R-SC). Of those three, Mace is probably the only potential defector; she's running for governor in South Carolina right now, and if Trump threatened to endorse one of her primary opponents, Mace might fold. That said, Massie has insisted that all of the Republican signatories are not backing down. Also, if Mace (or one of the others) does defect, he might be able to find another signer, particularly among members who are leaving the House anyhow (Chip Roy?).
If the 218 votes remain solid, and Johnson/Trump cannot make a dent, then Johnson has a couple of procedural tricks he could try to pull out of his sleeve. The House Committee on Rules could vote to table the matter, which would stop it from coming to the floor. However, that Committee has been bucking Johnson's wishes on a regular basis, and Chair Virginia Foxx (R-NC) already said she's not going to bail Johnson out here.
The other procedural trick would be to attach a rider linking the discharge petition to some other piece of must-pass Republican legislation. Johnson used the maneuver a couple of months ago to try to kill the discharge petition brought by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), regarding proxy voting. The Speaker was partly successful, as his maneuvering bought him some time to negotiate a compromise. However, this trickery angered many Republicans, who did not like being effectively blackmailed into supporting Johnson's position.
If Trump and Johnson are not able to pull a rabbit out of their hair, then privileged-motion votes usually happen on the second and fourth Monday evenings of the month. It will take a few days for Grijalva's certification of election to be completed, and for her to be formally sworn in and seated. However, she will certainly be in place by early October. What it boils down to is: You might want to tune in to C-SPAN around 6:00 p.m. ET on Monday, October 13.
Truth be told, if we were Johnson, we would think seriously about trying to arrange for a vote by acclamation. If the measure is going to pass anyhow, that would allow the Republicans to avoid casting individual votes. It would aggravate Trump, but he's much better at going after a handful of targets, as opposed to 219 of them.
Assuming the measure passes the House, then it will head to the Senate, where the 53 Republican senators will face the same dilemma as their House colleagues. Most of them are not up for reelection next year, so that might make them more willing to buck Trump, but it might also make them more willing to tell their voters "tough luck." Nobody's really been asking the senators how they might vote, so we just don't know. The filibuster is also in play, of course, though it's very possible there are 13 Republican votes to go with the 47 Democrats and independents to defeat such a measure.
Should the measure pass the Senate, that's the ballgame—no need for a presidential signature for this kind of measure. At that point, we would guess the Department of Justice would stonewall, and then it would be up to Congress to decide whether or not to do something about that. Either way, this drama is far from over, and the EpsteinYZ Affair is not going away.
On that point, someone put up a statue on the National Mall yesterday:
It shows Trump and Epstein, and the title (as indicated by the plaque) is "Friends Forever." This sort of thing enrages Trump and also damages him politically, so it's going to continue for the foreseeable future, no matter what Congress does, or does not do. (Z)