Dem
47
GOP
53
Doomsday is Sept. 30. Today is Sept. 25. You do the math. In order to get a deal through the Senate, the two leaders, Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY), have to agree on the deal. Not only is there no proposed deal and no agreement, but the two gentlemen aren't even talking to each other, despite their having known each other for decades. Each one thinks the other one should take the initiative, even though both of them understand the stakes.
Thune is miffed at Schumer for trying to make an end-run around him. Instead of negotiating with Thune, Schumer tried to arrange a meeting with Thune's boss, Donald J. Trump. Trump said he would do it until he decided not to do it. The meeting never happened. Schumer's view is that Thune needs Democratic votes, so he should reach out. Thune's view is that he offered a clean bill to kick the can down the road for 7 weeks, so Schumer should accept that and they can talk turkey later on. Kick the can is Congress' favorite game, even more popular than the annual congressional baseball game, which raises money for local charities. At least for the baseball games, the players get to wear uniforms of professional or college baseball teams from their home state, so it is fun.
It is not even clear what would happen if they talked, since neither one is budging from his stated position. Thune is accusing Schumer of being hostage to his base. Schumer is accusing Thune of being hostage to Trump and stuck in go-to-hell mode. Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) said: "I don't think they have been sharing hugs." Not only that, but they actually haven't had a meeting since Thune was chosen as majority leader. They don't have a history of a working relationship. In contrast, Schumer and former leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) had a good working relationship. They didn't agree on many issues, but each one respected the other one as doing what his caucus wanted. These days, by contrast, when something absolutely has to be done, Thune and Schumer have their top staffers work it out. Actually, Thune has ceded most of the talks about the required government funding bills to the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Susan Collins (R-ME). She is optimistic that something will be worked out. At least that is better than being concerned.
A key calculation that both leaders have made is who will get the blame if the government shuts down. As long as each one thinks the other party will get blamed, they will continue to play the game of chicken with a steely determination to win at all costs.
Schumer has an additional problem that Thune doesn't have: his own base. The last time this happened, in March, he caved and his base was furious with him for not putting up a fight. He doesn't want a repeat performance. He is also getting a message from Democrats running for the Senate. In Maine, for example, there are seven Democrats running against Collins, the most endangered Republican, and four of them have pledged not to support Schumer as leader if they win. The other three are keeping quiet on this. In Illinois, three Democrats are running for the seat Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) is vacating. None of them are willing to commit to voting for Schumer. In Iowa, where Sen. Joni "Well, we all are going to die" Ernst (R-IA) is retiring to go back to castrating hogs, two of the Democratic hopefuls said they would not support Schumer. One of them, Nathan Sage, even said "Hell, no."
Politico spoke to 18 Democratic challengers in Senate races. Ten said they would not vote for Schumer as leader and eight refused to answer the question. That's not much of a vote of confidence.
Schumer also has to keep in mind his own future. If he blows this one and his base becomes furious with him, the pressure on Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to challenge him in 2028 will be enormous. In one poll, she is leading him 55% to 36% in a theoretical Senate primary. She is a very savvy politician and will very likely get in if he stumbles. Most likely Schumer will then "retire" to avoid an ignominious defeat by a young woman. On the other hand, if he can win the Battle of the Shutdown and force Trump to give him a major policy win on something his base cares about, he might survive in 2028. But Trump hates him and getting a win won't be easy. We think Schumer's days are numbered. (V)