Dem
47
GOP
53
Former House Speaker Tip O'Neill may have been right in his day when he said "All politics is local." It sure isn't true anymore. The majority of Republicans would vote for Jack the Ripper (R) for Congress and the majority of Democrats would vote for the Boston Strangler (D). All that matters for true partisans, at least in House races, is the party label. For the Senate, it is less so because Senate candidates are much better known than House candidates and quality matters somewhat. When the president is underwater, independents tend to have a "throw the bums out" view and vote for the other party. When most people think the country is on the wrong track, it is the president's party that gets blamed. That is why pollsters ask: "Is the country on the right track or the wrong track?"
In this light, the September Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll does not look good for the Republicans right now. It shows that 28% of adults think the country is on the right track and 60% say it is on the wrong track. That is net -32 points, not a great showing for the party holding the trifecta. On the generic House ballot, among likely voters, the Democrat is ahead 50% to 45%.
On other questions, it is not much brighter for Republicans. Donald Trump's approval is underwater by 13 points, with 42% approve and 55% disapprove. On most issues, Trump is also underwater. A full 73% say law enforcement should not be able to detain people based on race, workplace, or language, with only 19% being fine with those factors. Deployment of the National Guard in cities is 14 points under water, 37% approve to 51% disapprove. Trump's policies are seen to be making the economy worse, with 53% agreeing with that and 24% saying his policies are improving the economy. His tariffs are underwater by 24 points (34% to 58%). If there is a shutdown, 34% will blame the Republicans, 23% the Democrats, and 34% both. Only on border security is Trump above water, 52% to 44%. All in all, if the House election is nationalized, it doesn't look promising for the Republicans. Gerrymandering will help somewhat, but if the electorate is D+5, the gerrymandering probably won't be enough to save the House because there are still swing districts that would go blue (see below).
A new Gallup poll tells a similar story. When asked whether they were satisfied with the nation's direction, 29% said yes and 67% said no, for a net -38%. In June it was only -31%, so the mood is darkening. The partisan breakdown is striking, with 68% of Republicans, 23% of independents, and 1% of Democrats happy with how things are going.
And then there is a new Quinnipiac University poll that says 79% of voters think the U.S. is in a political crisis. Generally, when people think there is a crisis, they tend not to vote for "more of the same."
The Senate is less sensitive to the popular mood than the House, but by a president's second term, enough grievances have accumulated to flip it. The most recent analogy to 2026 is 2014, in Barack Obama's second term. His party lost 9 seats in the Senate then, as shown below:
A flip of nine seats is unthinkable next year. Back in 2014, there were many moderate Democrats in the Senate from red(dish) states. They were all swept away. Now the only incumbent on the ballot who is the "wrong" color state is Susan Collins. Still, if all the stars align absolutely perfectly, the Democrats might be able to flip six states: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. Conceivably even Florida in a blue tsunami, because appointed senators like Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) have a poor track record. But getting even four states to flip (and thus gaining control of the Senate) would require a very big blue wave. That said, these things do correlate with one another, so if, say, Iowa flips, there's a good chance Ohio flips as well. (V)