Dem
47
GOP
53
Democrats realize that if they want to constrain Donald Trump at all, they must capture at least one chamber of Congress next year. The super PAC House Majority Forward, which is aligned with the House Democratic leadership, is on the air already with a $3 million campaign running on TV and the Internet. It is focused on ten especially vulnerable Republicans and is hitting them hard on their failure to lower prices and their votes to make health care more expensive. Here are the target incumbents:
| District | PVI | Incumbent |
| PA-08 | R+4 | Rob Bresnahan (R) |
| IA-01 | R+4 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) |
| PA-10 | R+3 | Scott Perry (R) |
| WI-03 | R+3 | Derrick Van Orden (R) |
| IA-03 | R+2 | Zach Nunn (R) |
| CA-22 | R+1 | David Valadao (R) |
| AZ-06 | EVEN | Juan Ciscomani (R) |
| CO-08 | EVEN | Gabe Evans (R) |
| MI-07 | EVEN | Tom Barrett (R) |
| NY-17 | D+1 | Mike Lawler (R) |
All 10 of these could flip if the wind is blowing the right way. Although it is not emotionally satisfying to attack Republicans on the price of eggs (going after their support for ending democracy would feel much better), polls show that the voters would happily give up democracy to get the price of eggs down a dollar. So the ads are all about Donald Trump's promise to lower prices, his failure to do so, and the potential for his tariffs to raise them even more. That is what the voters care about. And you go to elections with the electorate you have, not the electorate you might want or wish to have at a later time.
The ads vary by district. The one in Wisconsin going after Van Orden features Wisconsin-based influencer Kate Duffy. It is designed to look like a social media post, even though it is airing on TV. Here it is:
The point will have to be hammered on. Even though voters don't like Trump on tariffs and know he promised and failed to lower prices, some polls show Republicans are preferred to Democrats on the economy. This could be because while voters dislike Trump's policies, they hate the Democrats' policies even more. (V)