Dem
47
GOP
53
The Democrats are playing a game of chicken with Donald Trump on the government shutdown. Normally, the can gets kicked down the road a few times and then the Democrats give up. This time could possibly be different, though. The Democratic base is urging Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) not to cave this time. OMB Director Russell Vought sees an opportunity to decimate the government here. If each side thinks they have more to gain than the other guys, we could have a shutdown on Wednesday. In preparation for that, the blame game is getting started already. After all, the most important aspect of a shutdown is, of course, who gets blamed for it.
Trump has already blamed the Democrats. He said: "Will there be a shutdown? Yes, because the Democrats are crazed. Well this is all caused by the Democrats." That may or may not work with the voters, since the Democrats are going to point out that the voters last November gave the Republicans the White House, the Senate and the House because the GOPers said they could govern. Now, even though they control everything, they can't even fund the government. Initial polling suggests that the Republicans will get most of the blame. Most people don't understand all the details, but they do know the Republicans control all three branches of government completely and still can't govern.
With Trump, you never know what he is going to do. He is holding a meeting with all four leaders of Congress today, unless he cancels it... again. Is he going to be dealmaker-in-chief or is the goal to embarrass Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) by telling them they have no cards? What the Democrats want is to delay cutting subsidies for health insurance. This might not be a hill Trump wants to die on. Surely he knows (and Susie Wiles could tell him if he doesn't) that the health care subsidies are popular. Republican candidates next year probably don't want to campaign on: "We fought like hell to cut your health insurance and we had to shut down the government to force the Democrats to accept that." It doesn't sound like a great rallying cry to us, but what do we know?
The argument for a shutdown comes from this guy:
Yes, Russell Vought, the main author of Project 2025. He is a policy wonk, not a political strategist. He sees a shutdown as a wonderful opportunity to decimate the government. Instead of temporary layoffs until the shutdown is over, he wants RIFs (Reduction In Force)—that is, to permanently fire people. In some cases that might even be legal, specifically if an agency reorganizes itself due to a shortage of funds and the people being fired are not needed in the new structure. The military, law enforcement, public safety, border security and immigration enforcement would be protected, but programs the Democrats want would be chopped to mincemeat. Vought also envisions spending money that isn't there to keep programs he likes going, even though that is against the law. But who cares about the law? Or, more accurately, who is going to do anything about Trump breaking the law? Certainly not Congress.
Programs likely to be hit hard are those run by the Administration for Children and Families, low-income heating and cooling, preschool development grants, community service grants, and other programs that provide aid to people, especially low- and middle-income people.
As we note above, Vought is not a political strategist. A lot of federal employees live in Virginia. They will notice being temporarily laid off or permanently fired. The top states with federal employees are California, Virginia, Maryland, Texas, and Florida. The top two are having elections in November; California for an initiative to gerrymander their CD map to match Texas and the latter for governor. Federal employees might just express their unhappiness at the polls. A rout would have major political implications, but Vought couldn't care less. Politics is not his department. Destroying the government is his department.
Schumer is aware of all this and has set up his own private war room to strategize with outside groups, including MoveOn, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and unions, as well as other grassroots groups that want him to stand up to Trump and not cave again. One person allied with the progressives is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). If Schumer caves, she is very likely to challenge him in 2028, but she is probably savvy enough to delay her announcement until Nov. 4, 2026.
The war room is producing talking points for outside groups, including "Democrats do NOT want a shutdown." The team is also looking for storytellers who can talk about what the Medicaid cuts mean for real people. In fact, they are treating it like a political campaign, kind of like one to pass an initiative.
But again, we have been here before. The usual playbook is kicking the can down the road a few times until the Democrats cave. It could happen again despite all the threats Trump is issuing. (V)