Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, the leaders of the executive and legislative branches met, in a sort-of effort to avoid a shutdown. The meeting was... not a success, to say the least.
To the extent that there was any sort of new development, it's that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (both D-NY) were left with the impression that Donald Trump is potentially open to discussing the extension of healthcare subsidies. After all, he surely knows that the Republicans will take it in the teeth if millions of people lose their coverage. However, "maybe the President will talk to us about our key issue" is a far cry from "We've worked out a deal to keep the government open."
After the meeting ended, without much in the way of progress, Trump displayed his gift for being a consensus-builder and a unifier by getting on his brought-to-you-by-the-Saudi-sovereign-wealth-fund social media platform, and posting an AI-generated video that was equal parts racist and bizarre. If you really want to see if for yourself, then you can click on the link. However, here is how Jeffries and Schumer were portrayed:
Here's the complete text of what "Schumer" says in the video:
Look guys, there's no way to sugarcoat it. Nobody likes Democrats anymore. We have no voters left because of all of our woke, trans bullsh**. Not even Black people want to vote for us anymore. Even Latinos hate us. So we need new voters, and if we give all these illegal aliens free healthcare, we might be able to get them on our side so they can vote for us. They can't even speak English so they won't realize we're just a bunch of woke pieces of sh**, you know? At least for a while, until they learn English and they realize they hate us too.
We don't fully understand why Jeffries, who is not Latino, is in a sombrero. Because he is pro-undocumented immigrant, we guess? But if so, how come Schumer doesn't also get a sombrero?
At this point, we don't see how it's possible for the government to avoid a shutdown. Even if all the key players involved somehow had a meeting of the minds (and they do not seem to be remotely close to that), is there really time to get a bill through the House, and through the Senate, and signed by Trump, before 11:59 p.m. tonight? The best-case scenario would seem to be one of those situations where the government technically does shut down, but things get figured out pretty quickly, and the shutdown only lasts a day or two or three.
That said, the hardest part of a shutdown to swallow, for the politicians, is the first minute. Once that Rubicon has been crossed, then it gets easy for it to become an hour, then a day, then a few days, and then a week. Remember that during his first term, Trump oversaw a shutdown of 34 days. And that was with a budget bill having been passed, one that he initially supported. The current situation is much farther from the finish line, while Trump is feeling far more unfettered than he once did.
Meanwhile, it could not be more clear that Democrats in Congress are, on the whole, not interested in playing nice. Schumer (and Jeffries, though perhaps with slightly less enthusiasm) trial-ballooned an idea that the Democrats would agree to kick the can down the road for just 7-10 days; enough to buy some negotiating time. Democrats, at least those in the House, quickly said "No way, José." Well, it's Chuck Schumer, so "No way, Carlos." Of course, it's possible to get a bill through the House without any Democratic votes, so what really matters is whether 13 or so Democrats in the Senate would be OK with a very limited can-kicking. We may find out soon.
No matter what happens, Trump is going to get at least one "win" out of this, because 100,000 federal employees are set to resign today, as part of the program where they get 8 months' salary if they agree to go quietly. The folks who are throwing in the towel say they just can't deal with the "fear and intimidation" coming from the White House, not to mention the uncertainly of whether or not they'll have a job in a week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, etc. This "program" will cost the government nearly $15 billion and will leave many agencies understaffed, but the White House assures everyone it is "worth it."
Assuming a shutdown does happen, and assuming it lasts long enough that people (besides government employees and politics junkies) take notice, then we'll see which side does the best job of selling their version of events to the American people (and, in particular, to swing voters). Our entirely unscientific guess is that, because of the more effective propaganda apparatus, there's around a 35% chance that the MAGA version will prevail. And there's about a 30% chance that the Democratic version of events will prevail. And finally, there's a 35% chance that neither version will prevail, and that people will just reflexively blame the Republicans because they control the White House (and Congress, of course, but the White House is probably the key). Whether or not our percentages are on the mark, we think it's certainly fair to say that there are two ways this could go south for the red team, and only one way it could go south for the blue team.
And finally, we'll note that after the not-successful meeting, J.D. Vance held a press conference on the White House lawn, and shared his opinion that a shutdown cannot be avoided. Our sense of things, from the outside, is that Vance isn't really in the inner circle, and isn't really involved with decision-making. He is just the Trump administration's version of Luca Brasi; they send for him when there's a need for a kneecapping. In any event, we mostly mention Vance because of this picture of him (and Speaker Mike Johnson, R-LA, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-SD) from yesterday's press conference:
It's been a long time since we've seen a picture that so cried out for reader-supplied captions. If you agree, send your suggested caption to comments@electoral-vote.com. If we get good ones, we'll run a selection tomorrow. (Z)