Dem
47
GOP
53
CBS News reported that neither Samuel Alito nor Clarence Thomas will retire in June. We had an item on this Monday, noting that one leak does not constitute proof, although we do suspect that Thomas will hang on until Aug. 2028 to break the record for the longest serving justice in history. Democrats are also skeptical of the report. A group called Demand Justice is planning to spend $3 million now to frame the issue in the public mind and another $15 million if someone, probably Alito, actually tosses in his robe.
The ad campaign would focus on whether the nominee was loyal to the Constitution or to Donald Trump. There is not much chance it could swing votes in the Senate, but if the nominee is clearly unfit for the position, having the public understand that the nominee is unfit still has value, even if the Senate votes to confirm. Namely, any senator voting for a nominee who is seen to be a yes-(wo)man for Trump, could be attacked this November or possibly in November 2028 for that vote. For example, if the Bar Association rates the nominee is unfit, then an ad of the form: "The Bar Association stated that [X] was unfit to be on the Supreme Court and Sen. Jones voted for him anyway" could be effective in helping to defeat the senator.
Traditionally Republicans have been better equipped for these fights because they have a coherent framework to rally donors, activists, and voters: originalism. Democrats don't have a clear framework to rally around. Democrats need to start thinking more about their PR campaign should a vacancy arise. Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee should also begin thinking about tough questions they might ask during the confirmation hearing. Of course, this can't be fine-tuned until the nominee is known and his or her background is researched. (V)