Dem
47
GOP
53
We don't normally lead with Political Bytes. However, the elections are the big story of the week, and there was a gaggle of interesting pieces about them yesterday. Meanwhile, there wasn't all that much "new" news. So:
Poll Position, Part I: In our election wrap-up yesterday, we noted that the polls of the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary were way off, just like the polls of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary. In both cases, the progressive candidate was projected to win big; in fact, one of them (Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan) won in a squeaker while the other (Francesca Hong in Wisconsin) lost in a squeaker.
We did not have the time to carefully examine the polls (it takes a while to compile those write-ups), but JVL at The Bulwark did. He points out that Hong's actual share of the vote (39%) was about what the polls predicted (roughly 42%). The miss came with ultimate winner David Crowley, whose actual share of the vote (40%) was way higher than the polls predicted (roughly 17%). JVL concludes that the pollsters failed to capture late deciders, nearly all of whom appear to have gone for Crowley. He agrees with something we pointed out, namely that there should have been some polls done in the last week of the race, especially since Mandela Barnes dropped out with 2 weeks to go, and Crowley dropped back in shortly after that. JVL also argues that Black voters, who are the backbone of the Democratic coalition, are being undercounted.
Our Take: We find nothing to disagree with in JVL's analysis. He was only writing about Wisconsin, but the same assessment applies to El-Sayed in Michigan. His actual share of the vote (49%) was also about what the polls predicted (roughly 51%); it was his opponent that was way underestimated. It makes a certain amount of sense that voters who aren't particularly enamored of either candidate, when they finally have to make a choice, would settle on the more moderate candidate. It's also worth considering the possibility that some "undecided" voters aren't really undecided; they may know who they are voting for, but could be using their poll response to signal dissatisfaction with the whole slate of candidates.
Poll Position, Part II: Josh Marshall, at TPM, also took a look at the way-off polling, though what he's interested in is whether the polls should be considered untrustworthy going forward. And his answer is that you should always be a little leery of polls, because of the nature of the beast, but that primaries are strange animals, and the Michigan Senate/Wisconsin governor primaries were particularly strange animals, and that this probably isn't an indictment of all polls.
Our Take: We would agree with this, too. Once we get to the general election, there won't exactly be a choice between the "more moderate" and "less moderate" candidate. So, the potential Michigan/Wisconsin lesson of "you should probably count the great majority of undecideds as votes for the more moderate candidate" won't be transferable to November. However, given that we're in a "throw the bums out" era, and what looks to be a "throw the bums out" election (keep reading), we would speculate that undecided voters, once they have to make a choice, will break for the challengers rather than the incumbents.
Throw the Bums Out: Four Congressional Republicans who were running for reelection have lost their primaries this cycle. They are:
- Sen. Bill Cassidy (LA)
- Sen. John Cornyn (TX)
- Rep. Dan Crenshaw (TX)
- Rep. Thomas Massie (KY)
In addition, seven Congressional Democrats have lost their primaries so far, with #7 joining the list this week. They are:
- Rep. Diana DeGette (TX)
- Rep. Adriano Espaillat (NY)
- Rep. Dan Goldman (NY)
- Rep. Al Green (TX)
- Rep. Julie Johnson (TX)
- Rep. John Larson (CT)
- Rep. Shri Thanedar (MI)
On top of this, there was an unusually high number of retirements this year, as some of the "bums" headed for the exit before they could get tossed out on their bum.
Our Take: There is no reason to think this won't continue in the general election. So, if a race between an incumbent and a challenger is a dead heat, or close to a dead heat, the challenger may be the better bet to win.
Kumbaya: David Crowley very respectfully did not claim victory in the Wisconsin Senate primary until it had been called by all the major media outlets AND Francesca Hong had conceded. Yesterday, in his victory speech, he declared that now is the time for Democrats to come together, and that he hopes to welcome Hong's supporters into the tent.
Our Take: Politicians always give this basic speech after a bitter primary. However, we think Crowley is more likely to get what he's asking for than would usually be the case. The Republican nominee in this race, Rep. Tom Tiffany, is an election denier who voted against certifying the 2020 election results. If he wins, he would become the first state governor to have cast such a vote. It's just too risky to put the mother of all swing states under his control.
Some People Are Upset About Hong's Loss...: There was a lot of unhappiness yesterday about Francesca Hong's narrow defeat. And the majority of it seemed to be coming from... Republicans. For example, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) appeared on one of the panoply of Fox stations yesterday to describe Hong's loss as "concerning," and to observe that Tom Tiffany is now going to have "a more formidable opponent."
Our Take: Republicans were absolutely drooling over the chance to run against Hong. Not only did they like their chances of winning the Wisconsin governorship, but they also wanted to make her the face of the Democratic Party (or one of them, at least, alongside Abdul El-Sayed). Now, those dreams are up in smoke.
...Others, Not So Much: We speculated this would be the case in our item yesterday, and now several reports confirm that many progressives breathed a small sigh of relief when Francesca Hong lost. Yes, the lefties want progressive candidates, but progressive candidates who are also savvy politicians. If Hong had gone on to lose the general election due to her many unforced errors, which was a very real possibility, that would get pinned on the progressive wing of the party in general and the Democratic Socialists in particular. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), among others, were so leery of that they declined to endorse Hong.
Our Take: This is why AOC has an excellent chance of being elected senator, and may one day be a serious contender for the presidency. She's plenty lefty, but she's also plenty savvy, and doesn't make a lot of big mistakes.
Self-Parody, Part I: Royce White, the former NBA player who just announced his "eligibility" for the WNBA draft, was absolutely crushed in the Minnesota GOP U.S.Senate primary. He finished a distant third to Michele Tafoya, taking just 11.2% of the vote. From this result, he concluded that the logical next step is to run for President of the United States. Yesterday, he announced his bid on eX-Twitter.
Our Take: Is it ego? A desperate need for attention? Stupidity? Could be all of these things. The world is full of fringy candidates these days, given how many people are saying, "If Trump can do it, why not me?" We think White will find that there is far, far less interest in his "campaign" than he thinks there is.
Self-Parody, Part II: Mike Lindell, the MyPillow guy, also got crushed in Minnesota. He finished in second, which is better than Royce White did, but still trailed the winner, Speaker of the Minnesota House Lisa Demuth, by 11 points (43.4% to 32.5%). Lindell has taken a long, careful look at things, and has figured out why he lost: massive vote fraud.
Our Take: Is there anything more on-brand for Lindell than a response like this? It's interesting that the perpetrators of voter fraud are all Democrats right until he loses a primary, at which point the Republicans are doing it, too.
Oh! Darline!: The Republican establishment is lining up behind Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC), in hopes of propelling her to the win in her upcoming August 25 GOP U.S. Senate runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.
Our Take: We are not sure what the motivation is here. It's South Carolina; either one of the two Republicans will win in the general. Maybe the goal is to protect Donald Trump's batting average/ego, since he endorsed Graham. Maybe the GOP thinks that if they can elect another woman or two to the Senate, they can argue the party is "diverse." Maybe they think Norman is a loose cannon and is likely to say stupid and unhelpful things when and if he gets the platform afforded by a seat in the Senate.
The Lesson?: Politico's Jonathan Martin had a piece yesterday headlined "Democrats Got Lucky in Wisconsin. They Should Learn From It." And what, exactly, should they learn from it? Here is the answer, in Martin's own words:
Wisconsin showed how easily a divided party can sleepwalk toward a nominee its own leaders believe cannot win—and how little time they may have to stop it once they wake up. This time, Democrats escaped that fate. In 2028, if they fail to absorb the lessons of this primary, they may not be so fortunate.We saw several other pieces along these lines yesterday, but Martin's was the highest profile.
Our Take: This analysis is... just terrible. What, exactly, should the Democrats have done? For at least 2 months, the party's leaders have been scared witless about a potential win by Francesca Hong. This was not a secret. Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI), DNC Chair Ken Martin and other pooh-bahs pushed the flawed Mandela Barnes out of the race, and then pushed the less flawed David Crowley back in. And they did all of this with at least some subtlety, because if their thumbs are too obviously on the scale, some progressives could rebel and take a pass on the general election (think Hillary vs. Bernie in 2016). Crummy pieces like this are why it is hard to take "Democrats in disarray" pieces seriously.
That's 10 storylines. Hope that's enough for ya. (Z & A)