Dem
51
Ties
1
GOP
48
The trade war between Canada and the United States, which we wrote about yesterday, is ramping up. Yesterday, Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs he plans to impose on Canadian cars and steel. That follows a 50% tariff on many other goods that has already gone into effect. Meanwhile, Canadian PM Mark Carney said Canada would retaliate dollar-for-dollar, and that he will announce his plan for doing so sometime today.
The White House is aggressively trying to spin all of this as no big deal. For example, U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer went on CNBC yesterday to decree:
I know that Canadians use histrionics like "trade war" and all these kinds of terms. We don't do that. I mean, the United States, again, we're set on our trade policy. The Canadians asked to come and negotiate with us a month ago, so of course if people ask, we do. So we don't have any issue proceeding with our trade policy as planned, and I think the market understands that. I think the market knows that at the end of the day, this is 5% of imports from Canada. It's 0.06% of our overall consumption in this economy. So there's no possible way it can really affect U.S. well-being, right?
As a purely factual matter, the Trump administration uses histrionics all the time, including the phrase "trade war." As to the impact of the Canadian tariffs, Greer is either being stupid or disingenuous (probably the latter). As a U.S. trade representative, he either knows, or should know, that retaliatory tariffs are almost always highly targeted, so as to affect a particular place, or group, or industry. For example, tens of thousands of Mainers get their power from New Brunswick. Canada could cut that off, which wouldn't affect folks in California much, but which would certainly be a real problem for a lot of folks in Maine.
There's plenty of evidence that the administration is peddling a bill of goods, and there's even evidence the administration knows it's peddling a bill of goods. J.D. Vance, for example, has been dispatched to Maine to try to shore up the Republican vote there, particularly in the critical ME-02. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), meanwhile, is hopping mad about the trade war, which is certainly not going to help her reelection chances. She issued a statement criticizing the breakdown of talks between Canada and the U.S., and then yesterday told reporters that "imposing new tariffs on Canada is a mistake."
Collins is not the only politician who is in a tight election race right now, and who spoke out against the trade war yesterday. Also on board the anti-trade-war train is Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial candidate Gentner Drummond, whose runoff election is taking place today. In an interview, Drummond told NewsNation that "I think Oklahoma and I are supportive of President Trump and many of his policies. I do think the majority of Oklahomans would agree that the tariffs are too far."
Note that Drummond is not opposed to all tariffs. At nearly the same time that Trump declared (trade) war on Canada, he also announced that he was dropping tariffs on ground beef, in an attempt to lower Americans' grocery bills. Oklahoma is a state that produces a lot of beef, and so Drummond most certainly has a beef with Trump over this decision. In other words, the would-be governor wants high tariffs on beef (Canadian or otherwise) but low tariffs on pretty much everything else. A number of other Republican politicians are also upset about the reduced tariffs on beef. That includes Sens. Deb Fischer (NE), Chuck Grassley (IA), Jerry Moran (KS), Pete Ricketts (NE) and Mike Rounds (SD), all of whom criticized Trump over the decision. Nebraska produces more beef than any other U.S. state, Kansas is second, Iowa is tenth, South Dakota is twelfth and Oklahoma is sixteenth. Probably just a coincidence that those states' senators happen to be the angry ones.
The upshot is that, already facing serious headwinds, Trump is creating another potential anchor around his party's neck. The tariffs Canada announces today are most likely to affect states that border Canada. Among those, Alaska, Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota and Montana have key Senate elections this year, while there are key gubernatorial elections in the same states, except swapping out Montana and swapping in Wisconsin. As to the low-tariff beef, we'll point out that Nebraska has a critical Senate election this year, and so too does #3 beef producer Texas.
The newest wave of Trump tariffs on Canada, the ones he announced yesterday, are not set to kick in until January 1. So, that leaves potential room for negotiation. However, the White House is plenty steamed right now, and so are the Canadians. To speak to the latter part of that, we thought we'd share this letter we got from reader B.S. in Ottawa, ON, Canada:
Thought I'd write in with an update from north of the border.
Donald Trump's previous declaration of a trade war on Canada, combined with 51st state rhetoric, caused significant anger up here. By the middle of this year, the anger had somewhat faded, though many Canadians have avoided, and continue to avoid, usual trips and holidays to America. Most people eschewed American brands to some extent. Some 60,000 Canadians signed a petition to urge the government to recall Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, who has done his best MAGA duty to alienate and anger the people he is supposed to liaise with.
Still, when Justin Trudeau left office and was replaced by Mark Carney, there was an understanding that Carney had some leeway to try to appease Trump. Carney did so, occasionally by sacrificing laws such as the Digital Services Tax; occasionally by ramping up military spending or similarly giving in to various American demands. Regardless, our trade situation and relationship have continued to decline. "Governor" Carney cracks started appearing on MAGA's favorite nine-figure-losing social media platform, the President also derided Canada's ban of American alcohol (forgetting this was done in retaliation for his first round of illegal tariffs), and his whining about Canada not helping him in the war in Iran has shot up even though nobody was asked.
When Trump declined to renew CUSMA, the deal his administration negotiated 8 years ago, the writing was on the wall. We negotiated in good faith, despite all the signs otherwise. The late demands that Trump's team added to the trade negotiations are not only non-starters for Canada, but would be for any sovereign nation. Confirmed by Carney and other members of the negotiating team are the following items:
- Canada's ability to seek trade deals with other nations was to be restricted. Some sources have claimed that the U.S. wanted Canada to align with American international tariffs.
- French language requirements to be weakened or scrapped, which would be constitutionally impossible and would spark a Quebec referendum.
- Canadian content rules to be removed for streamers, denying Canadian artists and creators valuable sources of income.
- Weird exclusions to tariff reductions on automobiles, designed to kill Canadian factories and force jobs back to the U.S.
Once again, Canadians are rallying behind the Prime Minister; most premiers are on the record as supporting the decision to walk away, and Canadians have reacted by booing the American anthem at a soccer game. The boos had mostly died away by the end of the most recent hockey season. My guess is that they will be back soon, louder, and won't go away so easily. Boycotts are back on and in force (r/BuyCanadian has lots of resources for those interested), and Canadians who were tentatively looking at exploring American goods or vacation options are now pulling back faster. Twice bitten, thrice shy, I suppose.
I don't know what Trump is playing at, aside from the usual suspects of distracting from the Epstein files, from his failed war in Iran, from gas prices, from food inflation. There's no chance he wins this trade war. Canada's used the 18-month reprieve to increase our exports to non-American markets, and we have generated jobs at a faster rate than the U.S. While many jobs will be impacted by these tariffs, Canadians are resolute and willing to undergo suffering at a rate Americans are not. $4/gallon gas might undo Trump at the midterms, and we're willing to go a lot farther.
After all, he's only around for 2.5 more years... or less.
Thanks, B.S.! Sorry our president is so full of, well... your initials. We are soon going to learn exactly how much Trump cares about winning these midterm elections. It looks more and more like he cares less about that than he does about: (1) being "right," (2) getting vengeance against those who have "wronged" him, and (3) using today's crisis-du-jour to distract from yesterday's crisis-du-jour. (Z)