Dem
52
Ties
1
GOP
47
There were a handful of runoffs yesterday, two of which we previewed in detail on Monday. Here are the results:
U.S. Senate, South Carolina: Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) did everything possible to screw this up, including numerous gaffes reminding everyone that she's underqualified for the job (at best), or that she has absolutely no business in the Senate at all (at worst). After all, she's not a lawyer, she's not a military veteran, she's not an experienced politician, and she's never coached a single football game.
Despite this, Graham won her highly compressed primary election, defeating Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) 52.5% to 47.5%. Was this due to having a famous last name (technically, a famous maiden name)? Was it because of Donald Trump's support, including the President cracking open his PAC wallet for a last-minute ad spend? Was it because Norman is kind of unpopular? Probably all three of those things. We will note that when brother Lindsey ran in his primary, before he went the way of all men, he got 56.8% of the vote. That's not especially different, and it suggests to us there's a MAGA cadre among South Carolina Republicans, and a non-MAGA cadre, and it largely doesn't matter who the MAGA candidate is when it comes time to vote. If that is true, and if the MAGA vote is barely above 50% even in a very red state like South Carolina, then it does not bode well for MAGA primary candidates in 2028, when Trump might be even less popular/alive than he is right now.
Graham will likely go on to defeat Democrat Annie Andrews, who is equally inexperienced. That said, we will point out one thing: In the last Andrews vs. Lindsey poll before he died, she only trailed him by 3 points (48% to 45%). And in a PPP poll taken after Lindsey died, but before Darline was appointed as his successor, Andrews was down 1 point to Norman (43% to 42%) and up 1 point on Mark Sanford (41% to 40%). If Black voters in the state are angry and motivated enough, and if their white, Democratic counterparts also get to the polls, and if some number of non-MAGA Republicans take a pass on this one, it's not impossible this seat flips.
Governor, Oklahoma: This one came down to the wire. However, with 95%+ of the vote in, the Donald Trump-endorsed Mike Mazzei (R) has defeated Gentner Drummond (R) for the GOP nod in the race to replace the term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R). As of 1:00 a.m. PT, it's 50.28% to 49.72%, and all the major outlets have called the race for Mazzei.
In case you are wondering, Oklahoma does not have automatic recounts, no matter how close the race. A candidate can ask for a recount, no matter how small/large the margin of defeat, and they can ask for either a statewide recount or a targeted recount focused on particular districts or precincts. The candidate requesting the recount has to pay all the costs, though they do get a refund if the election result changes. Drummond, at the moment, is down 2,047 votes out of 371,309 cast, which is both a pretty small number, and yet an enormous number when it comes to the number of ballots that might plausibly flip in a recount. If Drummond really wants to throw his money away on a long shot, better to take it to Vegas and bet the Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl.
What conclusion can we draw from this election? Well, Oklahoma is the reddest state in the nation, and has not given even so much as a county to a Democrat since Al Gore. And yet, a Republican who did not have Trump's endorsement, and who spent the last day of the campaign criticizing Trump's tariffs, very nearly triumphed. As Trump gets more and more lame ducky, or maybe just less and less popular, his power to move the needle appears to be fading. His two candidates yesterday—again, running in very red states, states that Trump won in 2024 by 18 (SC) and 24 (OK) points—won by a combined 5.56 points.
GA-13: We did not preview this one on Monday, but yesterday Georgia held an election for the right to finish off the term of Rep. David Scott (D), who died back in April. Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) delayed as long as he could, but yesterday former Gwinnett County School Board Chairman Everton Blair (D) defeated Marcye Scott (D, and daughter of David) for the seat, 54% to 46%. The younger Scott outpolled Blair in the original, jungle-style round of voting, 46% to 38%, but clearly did not grow her support in the interim.
Blair is very progressive, and so this is a win for that wing of the party, but it comes with a very big caveat. State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D) took a pass on the special election, but won the regular primary over both Blair and Scott. Since the district is D+21, she is expected to defeat Air Force veteran Jonathan Chavez (R) in what will be a regular, non-jungle-style election. So, Blair will get to spend a couple of months as a member of Congress, during which time the body will largely not be in session, and then will head back home to Georgia.
Once Blair is sworn in, the House will be 218R, 214D, and 1I with two vacancies that will likely not be filled before the end of the term. As Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) tries to deal with the budget, and possibly with some version of the SAVE Act, and a few other things, he will continue to have a tiny margin of error, and will likely only be able to afford two defections at most, assuming the "independent" Kevin Kiley votes like the Republican he really is.
Massachusetts will take its turn next week, and then all that will be left are New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Delaware, in that order. (Z)