Dem
47
GOP
53
When we wrote about how Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) is likely to be expelled from the House, sooner or later (and probably sooner), we did a rundown of the expected changes in membership that are already on the calendar. As part of that, we wrote that the very blue Texas district of the deceased Sylvester Turner would be filled in early March.
As it turns out, we misread the source we used to double-check that. The selection of a replacement took place yesterday; a runoff election in which Democrat Christian Menefee handily defeated Democrat Amanda Edwards, 68.4% to 31.6%, with 87% reporting. Menefee was, until recently, County Attorney for Harris County, TX.
The reason for our error is that there IS an election in the district in March. However, that is the primary for a seat in the 120th Congress, not the runoff for a seat in the 119th. When these same two candidates do battle again in a few weeks, there will be two additional names on the ballot. One of those is an unknown (Gretchen Brown) who has no chance of winning. The other is Rep. Al Green (D-TX), who is a legend in Texas politics.
Green will be shooting for his 12th term, and the reason that he (an incumbent) will be up against Menefee (another incumbent, albeit for only a short time) is because of Texas' redistricting shenanigans. All four candidates are Black, so the election won't be decided by identity politics. It is almost certainly going to come down to Green and Menefee, who are both pretty lefty, so it won't be a Hillary vs. Bernie, Part 238, either. Green's biggest advantage is his stature and sky-high name recognition (and the March primary will have different district lines than yesterday's election, so some voters will not have been targeted during the special-election process, and might not know Menefee all that well). Menefee's biggest advantage is his youth; he's 37, as opposed to 78 for Green. If Menefee wins, the story will be "Democratic voters want to move on to a new generation of leaders." If Green wins, it will be hard to say if it's because he ran a better campaign, or because he's more famous.
Meanwhile, the fact that TX-18 now has a representative puts Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in the one-defection-only condition. Once Menefee is sworn in, it will be 218 R, 214 D. If one Republican defects on an otherwise party-line vote (assuming everyone shows up to work), that's 217 R, 215 D+R, and the Republican position wins. If two Republicans defect, that's 216 R, 216 D+R, and the measure fails. That will remain the case until, at the very earliest, March 10, when an election is held to pick a replacement for Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene. However, since there are 17 Republicans, 3 Democrats, a Libertarian and an independent on the ballot, it is improbable that anyone will claim the required 50% to be elected. More likely, a replacement will have to wait until the runoff on April 7. That will make it 219 R, 214 D until the good people of New Jersey (probably) pick a Democrat to replace the departed-from-Congress Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) 9 days later. No 50% requirement in that one, so by mid-April, the House will likely be 219 R, 215 D, which is again a one-defection-only condition.
Johnson is undoubtedly looking forward to the (likely) day that Cherfilus-McCormick is expelled, and his margin of error expands to TWO defectors. What a luxury! But even if that comes to pass, it will likely be in March. That means the Speaker is going to be dealing with the DHS funding situation without a safety net to speak of. That said, he might not really need it. If the Senate takes care of business first (and remember, they'd have to come up with something that could get 60 votes in that chamber), then Johnson would be presented with something of a fait accompli, a bill that would probably pass his chamber with the Democratic votes, plus some/many Republican votes (particularly from swing-district Republicans). That's surely his best-case scenario, especially if Donald Trump signs off on the bill. Then Johnson can disclaim most/all responsibility, and he won't be at risk of a high-profile cat-herding failure. (Z)