Dem
47
GOP
53
Most readers will have seen the big news from yesterday by now, namely that "Border Czar" Tom Homan announced that ICE will end its "surge" in Minnesota, and will be drawing down the number of agents on the ground in upcoming weeks.
There is much that is squishy in that announcement, like how long it will take, and how many ICE officers separate "a surge" from "not a surge." That said, while allowing for the fact that Homan is a rather dishonest man who might be lying, it does look like there will be a retreat, at least for now.
The motivation here could not be more plain, particularly given the timing. Yesterday, the last-ditch attempt to resolve the impasse over DHS failed. There is no long-term funding bill, and there is no can-kicking funding bill, and the members left Washington on Thursday night for a weeklong recess. So, DHS will shut down on Saturday, and while ICE will have the money to keep operating for a while, other parts of DHS won't, as we wrote yesterday. And the White House's messaging will be: "Why are the Democrats shutting [TSA/the Coast Guard/etc.] down? ICE isn't in Minnesota anymore."
While the plan here is clear, we don't think it will work very well. At this point, ICE is very unpopular, and the various abuses are well known. Even if a third person is not gunned down in broad daylight, Renee Good and Alex Pretti aren't going to suddenly become distant memories. Indeed, the current administration strategy could ultimately serve as proof-of-concept for the Democrats: "See? We filibustered DHS funding, and now ICE has backed off. We need to keep pushing!"
Both parties expect the funding battle to linger for a long time, because on both sides, the base has drawn a line in the sand. For example, before fleeing Washington yesterday, Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) told reporters: "I can't see the Dems voting for anything because they're not going to get pounded for funding ICE. And the Republicans on my side are not going to get pounded for hurting ICE." Keep in mind that the most recent, record-setting shutdown involved the entire federal government, and lasted 43 days. DHS is just one department, and the Democrats would really like to get to a point where ICE has burned through its rainy-day fund, and has to cease operations for a while. So, the number of days this time around could hit triple digits.
Meanwhile, what is going to happen with ICE going forward (assuming this draw-down is genuine)? Homan called the operation in Minneapolis "a success." Then he appeared on Fox for a nice chat with one of their entertainers, and decreed: "This is like any other surge operation. L.A., it ended. Los Angeles, it ended. Charlotte, it ended. New Orleans, it ended. This is ending the surge, but we're not going away. And let me say this, over 800 flights a day land in St. Paul, Minnesota. If we need to come back, we'll come back."
That does not sound like someone who has "learned a lesson" from the disaster in Minnesota, and who intends to plot a new and different course. Homan knows that what happened in the North Star State was politically very unpopular, and that ICE was rendered much less effective due to mass resistance. However, he also knows that the White House remains eager to go after alleged undocumented immigrants, and that significant elements of the base are pleased as punch with what is going on.
At this point, let us add another piece to the puzzle. The Wall Street Journal ran a piece yesterday full of dirt about DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and her paramour, Corey Lewandowski. Most of it was stuff you would expect from the National Enquirer rather than the WSJ, and we will be honest that we don't really care how often Lewandowski stops by Noem's house for a pickle tickle. But there are two important things that come out of the piece. The first is that Noem and Homan hate each other. The second is that Noem is a show horse, one who loves, loves, loves to be in front of the cameras (to the extent that even the White House is unhappy about it). Homan is much more a below-the-radar operator.
So, with the information currently available, we would guess three things are going to be true: (1) that Noem will remain on the sidelines, and she might even be fired; (2) that Homan will remain in charge of ICE operations for the foreseeable future and (3) that Homan will keep cracking down, but will do so in as low-profile a manner as he can (for example, by raiding private businesses, where camera crews might not be able to follow). Whether this will work, well... we'll have some thoughts in subsequent entries in this series. (Z)