Dem
47
GOP
53
Tomorrow is the State of the Union speech. The SOTU speech in a midterm year is always tough for the president as it requires him to choose between what he thinks is important and what the voters care about. For Donald Trump it will be especially difficult because he has an extremely short attention span and the Supreme Court just took away his magic Sharpie. The problem here is that Trump loves tariffs because he uses them as a weapon to punish foreign leaders and countries he doesn't like. But voters don't like tariffs because they raise prices. Is he going to use his speech tomorrow to attack the Supreme Court instead of talking about affordability? He will be sorely tempted because all or most of the justices will be in the room.
A lot of other news is also bad. Trump's approval is way down. The midterm forecast for Republicans is grim. ICE is tearing the country apart. Jeffrey Epstein is more alive now than ever, despite being found dead in his cell in 2019. DHS is shut down. The economy is weakening. Some Republican House members are starting to defy him. War is brewing around Iran, something much of his base hates. MAHA is furious with his promoting glyphosate (see next item). How is Trump going to treat all this?
One approach—undoubtedly pushed by Susie Wiles—is to talk about the economy and point out the good parts, like people's 401(k) statements going through the roof and inflation being tamed. The other approach is for Trump to let his id run wild and complain about the Supreme Court, immigrants, Democrats, fake news, hoaxes, and to just give his usual stump speech. He will use a teleprompter, but he could just ignore it and ramble on. In last year's address, which wasn't technically an SOTU, but de facto it was, he completely ignored the prepared speech and rambled on for 99 minutes, praising firefighters and blaming Joe Biden for the price of eggs. Now that he is angry, he could go off script again.
One thing that will be different from last time is how Democrats respond. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will bring Epstein victim Dani Bensky as his guest. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) will bring Epstein victim Haley Robson. Rep. Thomas "Pitbull" Massie (R-KY) estimates that 10-12 Epstein victims will be there. Democrats will put a focus on them in the spin room afterwards. Some Democrats will skip the event and attend an opposing event called the "People's State of the Union" held on the National Mall. Some Democrats may come to the official speech and walk out midway to get attention.
The official response will be from Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), who is pretty good at staying on script, but she will no doubt listen carefully and comment on some of the things Trump said, especially if it is a dark and incoherent speech. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) will also deliver a rebuttal in Spanish.
In the end, Republicans will praise the speech and Democrats will condemn it. How will independents react? It depends on the speech. If it is upbeat and praises his achievements, like getting illegal border crossings down to zero and taming inflation, they will probably like it. But if it is dark and mean and incoherent, probably not. We shall see which Trump strides onto the stage at 9 p.m. EST tomorrow. (V)