We wanted to send our best wishes on a speedy recovery to Taegan Goddard, of Political Wire, as he recovers from a rather serious surgical situation. If readers would like to send a message directly to him, the correct place to do that is here.

The State of the Union Is Not Good

Tomorrow is the State of the Union speech. The SOTU speech in a midterm year is always tough for the president as it requires him to choose between what he thinks is important and what the voters care about. For Donald Trump it will be especially difficult because he has an extremely short attention span and the Supreme Court just took away his magic Sharpie. The problem here is that Trump loves tariffs because he uses them as a weapon to punish foreign leaders and countries he doesn't like. But voters don't like tariffs because they raise prices. Is he going to use his speech tomorrow to attack the Supreme Court instead of talking about affordability? He will be sorely tempted because all or most of the justices will be in the room.

A lot of other news is also bad. Trump's approval is way down. The midterm forecast for Republicans is grim. ICE is tearing the country apart. Jeffrey Epstein is more alive now than ever, despite being found dead in his cell in 2019. DHS is shut down. The economy is weakening. Some Republican House members are starting to defy him. War is brewing around Iran, something much of his base hates. MAHA is furious with his promoting glyphosate (see next item). How is Trump going to treat all this?

One approach—undoubtedly pushed by Susie Wiles—is to talk about the economy and point out the good parts, like people's 401(k) statements going through the roof and inflation being tamed. The other approach is for Trump to let his id run wild and complain about the Supreme Court, immigrants, Democrats, fake news, hoaxes, and to just give his usual stump speech. He will use a teleprompter, but he could just ignore it and ramble on. In last year's address, which wasn't technically an SOTU, but de facto it was, he completely ignored the prepared speech and rambled on for 99 minutes, praising firefighters and blaming Joe Biden for the price of eggs. Now that he is angry, he could go off script again.

One thing that will be different from last time is how Democrats respond. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will bring Epstein victim Dani Bensky as his guest. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) will bring Epstein victim Haley Robson. Rep. Thomas "Pitbull" Massie (R-KY) estimates that 10-12 Epstein victims will be there. Democrats will put a focus on them in the spin room afterwards. Some Democrats will skip the event and attend an opposing event called the "People's State of the Union" held on the National Mall. Some Democrats may come to the official speech and walk out midway to get attention.

The official response will be from Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), who is pretty good at staying on script, but she will no doubt listen carefully and comment on some of the things Trump said, especially if it is a dark and incoherent speech. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) will also deliver a rebuttal in Spanish.

In the end, Republicans will praise the speech and Democrats will condemn it. How will independents react? It depends on the speech. If it is upbeat and praises his achievements, like getting illegal border crossings down to zero and taming inflation, they will probably like it. But if it is dark and mean and incoherent, probably not. We shall see which Trump strides onto the stage at 9 p.m. EST tomorrow. (V)

MAHA ≠ MAGA

MAHA is very close to MAGA in terms of orthography, but not so close (anymore) politically. When Robert Kennedy Jr. agreed to stop dumping dead bears and support Donald Trump in 2024 in return for a cabinet post, his MAHA Moms followed him, thinking that Kennedy would bring a focus on healthy food to the administration. Instead, they got a measles epidemic. Now they feel betrayed, and there is a genuine rift between the MAHA Moms and the administration. And it is not due to vaccines.

No, it is due to a chemical that is hard to detect and harder to pronounce: the biocide glyphosate, which has neurotoxic effects and probably causes cancer, according to the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Glyphosate is a broad-spectrum herbicide used in the controversial weed killer, Roundup. To say it is widely used misses the mark. It is the most-used weed killer in history. U.S. farmers spray 300 million pounds of it on corn, soybeans, and other crops each year. The moms don't want it in their kids' food.

Roundup works because farmers can buy patented genetically modified seeds for crops that are resistant to Roundup and spray Roundup liberally on the fields. It kills all the other plants except the genetically modified crop. When farmers buy the genetically modified seeds, they have to sign an agreement stating that they won't use the seeds from this year's crop to plant next year, forcing them to buy new seeds from the Monsanto division of Bayer, the German chemical giant, every year. Roundup is available for sale in the U.S. despite its health dangers because farmers love it and the EPA doesn't want to take them on for political reasons.

This has come to a head now because last week Donald Trump signed an XO promoting the use of glyphosate. The XO invokes the Defense Production Act to spur production of glyphosate and limits the liability of glyphosate's makers. Lawrence Gostin, a public health expert at Georgetown University, said: "Invoking the Defense Production Act to spur the domestic production of glyphosate is a gross abuse of presidential authority. There is scant evidence that the United States' agricultural sector and its ability to ensure a stable food supply is at risk."

Trump signed the XO to placate farmers who use Roundup, and also to try to keep food costs down. After all, many people would prefer cheap, but poisonous, food to expensive, but healthy, food. But not the MAHA Moms, who are not with the program. The official cover story was that the order is really intended to increase the domestic production of phosphorus, which is a component of glyphosate but also used in munitions.

One of the MAHA Moms, health and wellness podcaster for Turning Point USA Alex Clark, said: "How am I supposed to rally these women to vote red in the midterms? How can we win their trust back? I am unsure if we can." Across the country, many other women expressed similar feelings. Healthy eating activist Vani Hari, known as "Food Babe," who has millions of followers, said: "There is a level of anger and frustration like I've never witnessed before."

Some Democrats see potential here. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) said: "The message from this Administration is clear: Chemical company profits are more important than your health." And it is a foreign chemical company, to boot. The whole story is a bit wonky but could be summarized to the voters as: "Trump is encouraging farmers to use a toxic herbicide that causes cancer and brain disorders in children so a German chemical company can make bigger profits." Unfortunately, to make it fit on a bumper sticker, it has to be in 2-point type.

A fundamental dynamic of American politics, particularly presidential politics, is that candidates overpromise and underdeliver. Trump definitely overpromises more aggressively than any president in U.S. history. And there's a pretty good case to be made that he also underdelivers more than any of his predecessors. This is a prime reason that midterms are usually bad for presidents' parties, as people who are disappointed tend to stay home on Election Day (or even to flip to the other side). The MAHA folks are a particular problem, because they are basically single-issue voters, and Trump has just betrayed them on their single issue. (V)

It's Open Season on RINOs

Keeping the MAHA Moms on board isn't Donald Trump's only political problem. He also has to deal with recalcitrant Republican House members. So, he went for his favorite weapon and slapped a 50% tariff on imports into their districts. Oh, wait, the Supreme Court said he can't do that. Consequently, he reached for weapon #2: Endorse a primary opponent. That feels so good, even when it is political malpractice.

Case in point: Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-CO). Hurd is from an R+5 district, CO-03, encompassing Grand Junction and Pueblo, CO. In 2024, he announced a run against Lauren Boebert. When she chickened out and jumped over to CO-04, he campaigned on being as "exciting as a bread sandwich," won the primary and won the general election. Donald Trump endorsed him again this time, not because he is MAGA—he isn't—but because he was likely to win and this would increase Trump's batting average.

Then Hurd voted with the Democrats to cancel the tariffs on Canada. He did this not out of spite, but because his district exports products to Canada, so he was just voting his district. Trump went apesh** and de-endorsed Hurd and endorsed a crazy right-winger, Hope Scheppelman, in the primary instead. She is a former nurse practitioner who is so extreme that the Colorado state Republican Party voted to remove her as vice chair of the party due to some of her stated positions. She has opposed the display of BLM and Pride flags in schools, mocked the Southern Ute Tribe in the district, and more.

This switch by Trump suddenly puts a slightly swingy district, which would probably be in play in a blue wave, very much in danger. Dick Wadhams, a Colorado Republican strategist and former Colorado GOP state chairman, described Scheppelman as "very divisive," saying: "The fact is if she is the Republican nominee in the Third District, Democrats will win that district." Allen Fuller, a Colorado Republican consultant, said Scheppelman was "a limited candidate with a limited base, limited runway, and limited options."

So by switching endorsements, Trump has changed a probable victory for a Republican into a very plausible victory for a Democrat. Two Democrats have filed so far. Alex Kelloff's family has been in Colorado for four generations. He cofounded Armada Skis and has worked for various companies in the state his whole career. The last 6 years he has been with SDC Capital Partners, a global digital infrastructure investment company.

Kyle Doster is a barista. Clearly, neither one expected to win against Hurd and filed on a lark. However, now that a complete wingnut might upset Hurd, the whole picture suddenly changes. The filing deadline for the June primary is March 18, so some Democratic state representative, state senator, or mayor in the district might just decide to chance it since the odds of flipping the seat just shot up due to Trump's action. If a Democrat wins, we think he or she should send Trump a thank you card reading: "Without your help, I could never have done this. Thank you so much." Actually, there are probably going to be quite a few Democrats who will need to send a card like that after Election Day. (V)

Money Isn't Everything--Not Even in Texas

The Texas Republican Party, the RNC, and NRSC are doing everything they can to pull Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) over the finish line in his primary a week from tomorrow. He is running against Texas AG Ken Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House for his unbridled corruption. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) is also in the mix, and although he has no chance, he is likely to pull enough votes to force a runoff on May 26. Here is Cornyn's support over time:

The Republican establishment really, really, really, really, DOES. NOT. WANT. Paxton to win the primary. They have already spent $60 million on ads for Cornyn with another $30 million scheduled for this week. Nevertheless, the trendline for Cornyn is pointing down, not up, despite all this money. Paxton has spent only $2 million but polls show him neck-and-neck with Cornyn, with Hunt far behind. A lot of the money is "dark money," that is, money coming from sources that do not have to identify their donors. It is thought that wealthy Texas oilmen are providing some of it.

If, as seems likely, Cornyn and Paxton advance to the runoff, that doesn't bode well for Cornyn. He has been in statewide elective office for 27 years. Everyone in Texas who has ever read a newspaper or watched a television knows who he is. Other examples of well-known incumbents who were forced into a primary show that most of the votes for minor candidates are from people who know who the incumbent is and don't like him. They are typically quite willing to substitute one non-incumbent for a different one. This pattern suggests that the Hunt voters don't actually support Hunt, but dislike Cornyn, and Hunt is simply less controversial than Paxton. In a runoff, probably the majority of the Hunt vote will go to Paxton. This is making Texas Republicans quake in their seven-league boots. They don't want to have to spend another $100 million in the runoff and maybe still lose. But if Paxton wins the primary and James Talarico wins the Democratic primary, they may have to spend another $100 million to save Paxton in the general election. Everything is bigger in Texas.

There is a chance that Texas Democrats will save the Republican establishment by nominating Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX). If she wins the Democratic primary, then it is all over but the shoutin' and whichever Republican wins the primary will also win the general election, even if that candidate goes on vacation for 6 months and doesn't buy any ads. Even with an ideal candidate, it is very difficult for a Democrat to win statewide in Texas, and Crockett is not exactly the ideal candidate for a state as red as Texas. (V)

The Great Epstein Saga Continues

As reporters continue to pick through the (poorly organized) Epstein dump, new facts come out almost daily, with new actors implicated. The most recent company to be ensnared by Epstein is American Express, which runs a travel agency among its businesses. It turns out that when Epstein needed to fly women and girls from Eastern Europe to his private island, he turned to American Express to arrange all the travel.

The company didn't see all this travel as peculiar and so did not warn the FBI about it. Nope, it booked hundreds of flights for women and girls from Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Latvia and Belarus to the U.S. and on to other places. This went on for at least 7 years, from 2012 to 2019, long after Epstein was convicted on charges of procuring a minor for prostitution. Didn't anyone at the company ask: Why is this convicted sex trafficker flying all these girls from Eastern Europe to the U.S. and beyond? Nope. All they asked for was his credit card number.

Actually, they didn't even have to ask. Epstein had an Amex Centurion Card, the most prestigious card out there, which is by invitation only and comes with a $10,000 initiation fee and $5,000 annual fee. Maybe someone low down in the company did ask, but was told by higher ups: "Just shut up and book the flights." This could be something Congress might want to look into.

One person who would definitely know more about this sordid business is Lesley Groff, Epstein's long-time executive assistant. She was the contact between Epstein and American Express and would know who at the company was his account manager and more. Congress might want to invite Groff over for tea and a chat. There are so many leads floating around that an investigation would have many places to start. Leads aren't the problem. Interest in following them is the problem.

The Amex connection isn't the only bit of new Epstein news. Instead of hauling the CEO of American Express in front of Congress to answer some tough questions, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) is going to cross examine Bill Clinton later this week. Good luck with that. Clinton has more experience with this than Comer. In 1998, Clinton testified in a lawsuit filed by Arkansas state employee Paula Jones, who accused him of sexually harassing her. Then he testified again in the Monica Lewinsky case. Slick Willy knows how to handle this kind of stuff. He did so well that in the next midterms, the Democrats gained a couple of House seats—the first time since 1934 that the president's party actually won seats instead of losing them. Clinton's tormentors, Speaker Newt Gingrich and later Rep. Bob Livingston, were both forced to resign when their own extramarital affairs "leaked" out. And Clinton's popularity went up. It was at 73% when he was impeached in Dec. 1998 and he was acquitted by the Senate.

Comer also subpoenaed Hillary Clinton. She can also testify with the best of them. In Oct. 2015, she withstood an 11-hour partisan attack in Congress about a terrorist attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya, that she was not involved in personally, although she was secretary of state at the time. In this case, Hillary can simply say: "Bill travels all over the world for the Clinton Foundation. I can't keep track of where he is or what he is up to." Then she can rattle off all the valuable philanthropic projects the Foundation runs. If Comer thinks he has two chickens ready to be plucked, he is likely to be very surprised by their resilience. Neither one is going to be intimidated by a guy with a B.S. in agriculture from Western Kentucky University and no law degree. The whole stunt could easily backfire on him. (V)

The Drums of War Are Beating Loudly

Maybe this is premature, but it could be very important, so it is worth a few words. One of Donald Trump's main campaign themes was no more forever wars. He certainly wasn't going to start any new ones and was even going to end the war in Ukraine on Day 1. We are now on Day 400 and last we heard it was still going strong with no end in sight.

For the America Firsters among his supporters, that's bad enough. Another self-inflicted war would be even worse. Yet Trump seems to be inexorably moving toward starting a new one—with Iran. Americans often love miniwars that can be won in a day or two with no loss of American life. Ronald Reagan knew that, hence his invasion of Lebanon and his bombing of Libya. Secretary of Defense War Pete Hegseth also loves that kind of war so he can cosplay soldier, castigate fat generals, and persuade himself that everyone loves him. Wars that go on and on with many Americans being killed and maimed are much less popular. Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan come to mind here.

Trump's underlings have been negotiating with Iran about having them stop developing nuclear weapons. This has been going on for months, with no progress. Seems Iran wants the bomb and is trying hard to make one. Trump wants to stop them. Deadlock here.

So, Trump has ordered the Navy to send warships to Iran. On the left below is the map as of last week. Additionally, the carrier U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford and its complement of destroyer escorts is on the way. Military experts say that it will be mid-March before all military assets are in place. Trump could pretend to negotiate until then and strike when all the ships and planes are at their destinations.

If war comes, it won't be like Venezuela, where a pinpoint strike grabbed the leader by surprise. Iran has been running military exercises for weeks and expects to be attacked. It is also a much bigger and more powerful country than Venezuela. It has short- and medium-range (conventional) missiles that can hit U.S. bases all over the Middle East. Iran has over 600,000 active-duty military and another 350,000 reservists.

Iran also has an unusual and powerful weapon: the Strait of Hormuz (see above right). That is the region shown in the red oval above in the map on the left. It is not an accident that two destroyers are sitting there. The navigable channel is only two miles wide in each direction, but one-fifth of the world's oil and liquified natural gas passes through the Strait. Iran could close the channel with shore-to-ship missiles—at horrendous environmental cost—by sinking tankers. Oil prices would go through the roof and cause economic chaos in the West, China, and elsewhere. The Iranian navy has been running drills in the Strait of late. Closing the Strait would hurt Iran since its only source of income is oil, but if the ayatollahs felt in danger of being overthrown, they could shut it down. In fact, they could block shipping by merely announcing that they would sink any oil tanker trying to run the blockade. Would Exxon or any other oil company risk losing a $100-million ship, and inflicting the environmental damage a direct missile hit could cause, even with a U.S. Navy escort? Probably not.

The U.S. has far more firepower than Iran, but Iran's strategy would not be to kill more Americans than America could kill Iranians. That's impossible. Its strategy would be to make the war so painful for Trump (dead soldiers, an economy in tatters, the prospect of Democrats winning 50 House seats and 5 Senate seats, etc.) that Trump would be forced to stop the war and accept a nuclear Iran. The Joint Chiefs know all this of course, but since when does Trump listen to experts when his gut is available for advice?

On the other hand, Trump is so unpredictable that Iran has to take into account the possibility that he would pull the trigger and launch a full-blown war, with the goal of killing millions of Iranians, destroying Iran as a functioning country, and causing regime change, something many Iranians would welcome. This is a game of chicken on a previously unimaginable scale.

It is also a political gamble on an unimaginable scale. If Trump could pull it off, permanently destroying Iran as a (nuclear) power, and doing it all without losing many American lives or creating many terrorist attacks, he would be a hero and Republicans would probably win the midterms. On the other hand, if it all went south with plenty of damage to Iran but at the price of multiple Navy ships being sunk with thousands of sailors dying, the economy in chaos, and the Dow down 20,000 points, Republicans in R+10 districts would go down to defeat in droves and Trump would be impeached and maybe even convicted in Jan. 2027. Either of these scenarios, and maybe some others, are possible. (V)

Nate Silver Is Losing It

Statistician Nate Silver and two of his former colleagues at 538, Galen Druke and Clare Malone, have ranked 18 Democrats in order of the probability of their getting the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. We present his rankings as evidence that Silver is losing his touch and substituting attention and current popularity for data and insight into the electorate.

Our guess is that Democrats are so desperate to win and defeat Trumpism that the majority of them will put aside ideology and all other factors and pick a candidate they think can beat J.D. Vance, SoS Marco Rubio, Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA), or whoever the Republicans pick. The Democrat is likely to be a straight, white, centrist, Christian man who has proven his ability to win elections in a swing state or red state. We allow that the right Jewish candidate could make it work, and, as several readers wrote in to point out, that EpsteinYZ might open a lane for a woman candidate. But we think that if you're going to bet, bet on a straight, white, centrist, Christian man.

What is surprising is how few of Silver's candidates pass that test and how low on the list they are. Here is his list and some of our notes about each one. We are starting from the premise that there is still a lot of prejudice in America and that matters. We tell it like it is here, even if it makes some people uncomfortable:

Rank	Candidate	Notes
1	Gavin Newsom	Perfect on paper but a political chameleon desperately trying to erase years of being very woke
2	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Too young, too female, too brown, not enough gravitas, and will probably run for the Senate
3	Pete Buttigieg	If he were straight, he would be JFK II, but he is married to a man.
4	Gretchen Whitmer	Might be a good vice president since she is from a key swing state
5	Ruben Gallego	Finally! A Latino Marine Corps combat veteran from a swing state
6	Josh Shapiro	Jewish, but would easily win the biggest swing state and probably Wisconsin and Michigan, too
7	Wes Moore	Black. Not all Black people are Barack Obama, a truly brilliant politician.
8	Kamala Harris	She already lost once and hasn't gotten more popular since then.
9	Cory Booker	See Moore.
10	Raphael Warnock	See Booker.
11	Jon Ossoff	He's Jewish, but if he wins Georgia in a landslide in November, he's a maybe.
12	Mark Kelly	Perfect on paper but he might not run because he needs to care for his wife, Gabby Giffords.
13	Jon Stewart	Has Nate started smoking something and inhaling while at work?
14	J.B. Pritzker	An old heavyset Jewish strongly pro-Israel billionaire is not what the kids are looking for.
15	Andy Beshear	Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were southern governors; Beshear should be in the top three.
16	Ro Khanna	A very, very progressive brown guy from Silicon Valley will not play in Peoria.
17	Amy Klobuchar	She tried in 2020 and got nowhere.
18	Chris Murphy	On paper, good, but he is kind of low-key and probably won't run.

What surprises us is that six of the candidates are people of color and three are women. Yes, Barack Obama won, but he was a brilliant once-in-a-generation politician. The question Silver, et al., should be asking is: "Can this person win white working-class voters in Pennsylvania and Georgia?" Asking: "Who makes progressive kids swoon?" is probably the wrong question. Only half the people on the list are straight white men and of those, four are Jewish, which could be a problem, depending on what is going on in the Middle East in 2028. However, two of them have something special (Shapiro brings in the biggest swing state and Ossoff brings in the second biggest swing state and a lot of young voters). All in all, we think Silver has been blinded by how much attention some candidates are getting this far out and how fervent their supporters are, not how many of them there are. If being the front runner this far in advance mattered, President Giuliani would have been elected in 2008 in a landslide. (V)

Key State House Elections Coming Up

Important special elections are being held in two states tomorrow. First Maine. The Maine House currently has 74 Democrats, 72 Republicans, three independents, and two vacancies. One vacancy is due to Kristen Cloutier (D) resigning to become chief of staff to the state Senate president. There will be a special election in HD-94 in Androscoggin County for Cloutier's seat tomorrow. The other vacancy is due to the death of state Rep. Kathy Javner (R), who passed away in January. The special election in HD-29 (Penobscot County) will be later in the spring, but the district is so red, some Republican is sure to win it.

In the HD-94 race tomorrow, Democrat Scott Harriman won the primary. He is on the Lewiston school board and on the Lewiston city council, so he is well known in local politics. The Republicans nominated Janet Beaudoin, also on the school board. She achieved some notoriety for trying to prevent schools from displaying Pride flags. Kamala Harris carried HD-94 by just 4 points. If Beaudoin wins, the state House will be 74D, 73R. Then, when a Republican wins HD-29 in a few months, it will be 74D, 74R with three independents (farmer William Pluecker, retired teacher Sharon Frost, and former marketing executive Ed Crockett). Control of the state House could be important if Nebraska switches its electoral votes to winner-take-all. Maine could do likewise to cancel out Nebraska, but only if the Democrats have de facto control of the House. Democrats have a 20-14 advantage in the state Senate, so the House is the key. Gov. Janet Mills is a Democrat.

There is an important U.S. Senate election in Maine this year, and another gigantic Democratic blowout tomorrow, as there have been in several special elections this cycle, might be a clue about November. However, a Republican upset would also be a big hint. It is noteworthy that there was an ICE raid in Lewiston in January and February, cleverly called "Catch of the Day." Might that affect the special election? We'll know more Wednesday morning.

Now on to Pennsylvania. The current partisan breakdown in the state House is 100D, 98R, and five vacancies. Two bluish House seats are up tomorrow. The other three seats, up in the spring, are in deep-red districts, so think of the House as effectively 100D, 101R, and two seats up tomorrow. If the Democrats win both of them, they will have the majority. If the Republicans can flip either one, they get the majority.

HD-22 is around Allentown, in the Lehigh Valley, about 50 miles northwest of Philadelphia. It went for Harris by 17 points. The seat is vacant because former House member Joshua Siegel was elected Lehigh County executive in November. The Democratic candidate is Ana Tiburcio, a local school board member for the past 16 years. She owns A & M Tax & Services. The Republican candidate is Robert Smith, a former school board member. He is a program specialist at New Vitae Wellness and Recovery. The Democrat is favored, but an upset is always possible. In 2022, 70% of the registered voters were Democrats. Now that is 53%, a 17-point drop. HD-22 is about 62% Latino and relatively poor, so this could be a bellwether for how poor Latinos are feeling. If you want a detailed description of this race, here is an article about it in the local paper.

HD-42 is in suburban Allegheny County, which contains Pittsburgh. It is also blue. The vacancy occurred when Dan Miller (D) was elected county judge and resigned. Democrat Jennifer Mazzocco is a teacher, union leader, and a Dormont Borough Councilwoman. She ran in 2024 and lost badly. She is trying again. The Republican is attorney Joseph Leckenby. He ran against Miller and lost in 2024. The big issues are affordability and ICE.

Again, while the races in Maine and Pennsylvania are important in their own right, for control of their respective legislatures, what everyone will be looking at is whether they follow the pattern of huge Democratic blowouts in special elections this cycle.

As long as we are on the subject of special elections for state legislatures, there is another state House special election coming up that will attract a lot of attention. It's complicated. The election is March 24, so this is just a heads up. It is for Florida's HD-87, which runs along the coast for much of Palm Beach County. Only 11,000 people voted in the Jan. 26 primary. We don't know if he voted, but one of the eligible voters is one Donald J. Trump, who lives in Palm Beach, smack in the middle of the district.

The vacancy arose on account of, and the election was delayed by, the same person: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Last August, a vacancy arose for the office of Palm Beach County Clerk. DeSantis plucked Rep. Mike Caruso (R) from the state House and made him county clerk. This was a reward for Caruso supporting him in a messy legislative fight last year. State Republicans are getting tired of DeSantis bossing them around, so when DeSantis supported a bill that would turbocharge Trump's deportation agenda, the legislators rebelled and drew up their own bill, the TRUMP Act, which DeSantis opposed. Caruso was the only Republican to vote against it. Unlike Trump himself, DeSantis actually values loyalty, and rewarded Caruso with the county clerk job.

After appointing Caruso to the clerk's job, DeSantis dragged his feet and finally set the special election for March 24, even though a Republican won the seat last time. Now it is scheduled. Trump carried the district 55-44 in 2024.

The winner of the Democratic primary is Emily Gregory, who runs a fitness business for pregnant and postpartum women. The winner of the Republican primary is Jon Maples, a financial planner and former Councilman in Lake Clarke Shores. Trump has taken quite a bit of interest in the special election and has endorsed Maples, of course. Trump knows that a win by Gregory in his backyard would be a black eye and really wants to avoid it. He might even campaign for Maples, although that could cut both ways. It should be interesting. (V)

Dutch Minority Cabinet Formed after Only 4 Months

We often get mail from readers who moan that they don't like either the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for some office and wish they had more choices. For them, the Dutch election of Oct. 2025 would seem like nirvana, with 27 parties on the ballot in most provinces. That certainly gave voters plenty of choice. For example, there were two different animal rights parties. If that isn't enough, it is relatively easy to start a new party. Very roughly, you need to file a form and pay a fee of about $500 and get 30 signatures per election district (of which there are 20) where you want your party on the ballot.

Not surprisingly, the October election results were very fragmented, with 15 parties represented in the 150-seat lower chamber, which has most of the real power. The upper chamber, the Senate, is kind of vestigial (vaguely like the House of Lords in the U.K.) and cannot initiate or amend legislation. The two biggest parties (D66 and PVV) each won 26 seats (17%) in the lower chamber (although the PVV split in two recently).

After the election, the hard part starts—cobbling together a majority. Excluding the PVV, an anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant party nobody else wants to work with, if the four biggest parties had formed a coalition together, they would have had a majority. However, they disagree on so many issues that this was impossible. After four months of squabbling, the first, third, and fifth biggest parties by votes (D66, VVD, and CDA) agreed to form a coalition government. The new prime minister, Rob Jetten, is gay, but nobody cares about that. The problem is that they have only 66 seats combined, 11 short of a majority. This means they will need the tacit support of one or more other parties for every bill and the government can fall at any moment if a majority of the MPs decide they have had enough. That would force a new election. It is going to be very difficult to govern like this.

There are many contentious issues facing the new government (and every government in Europe). Migration is one. Nobody wants poor immigrants from Africa and the Middle East, but some companies want skilled immigrants from India, China, and elsewhere.

Another huge issue is defense. Every government has gotten the message that the U.S. is now somewhere between an unreliable partner and an outright enemy. As one politician put it: "Our 80-year vacation from world history is now over." In other words, it is back to the regular order of kings, dictators, and territorial wars. This means a much stronger European defense is needed, potentially with a European Army in the future. But for now, defense spending must be ramped up and that money has to come from somewhere. The European Central Bank is not going to just start printing money because that would make inflation skyrocket. To raise more money for defense, the choices are increasing taxes (not popular) or lowering social spending (also not popular). Whatever choices the minority government makes is going to upset a lot of people and some of the other parties.

We have often written about how Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has trouble herding the cats, even though he has an actual majority (218-214 at the moment). Imagine that his party had only 74 seats (17%) in the House and together with his partners had only 191 seats and needed 218 votes to get anything through. Are you still sure you want more parties? Of course, the upside of an unstable minority government that can't do anything is that it is not generally a good basis for a wannabe dictator to get launched. There are a few exceptions, of course—Germany circa 1933 leaps to mind. (V)

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