Dem
47
GOP
53
The Texas Republican Party, the RNC, and NRSC are doing everything they can to pull Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) over the finish line in his primary a week from tomorrow. He is running against Texas AG Ken Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House for his unbridled corruption. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) is also in the mix, and although he has no chance, he is likely to pull enough votes to force a runoff on May 26. Here is Cornyn's support over time:
The Republican establishment really, really, really, really, DOES. NOT. WANT. Paxton to win the primary. They have already spent $60 million on ads for Cornyn with another $30 million scheduled for this week. Nevertheless, the trendline for Cornyn is pointing down, not up, despite all this money. Paxton has spent only $2 million but polls show him neck-and-neck with Cornyn, with Hunt far behind. A lot of the money is "dark money," that is, money coming from sources that do not have to identify their donors. It is thought that wealthy Texas oilmen are providing some of it.
If, as seems likely, Cornyn and Paxton advance to the runoff, that doesn't bode well for Cornyn. He has been in statewide elective office for 27 years. Everyone in Texas who has ever read a newspaper or watched a television knows who he is. Other examples of well-known incumbents who were forced into a primary show that most of the votes for minor candidates are from people who know who the incumbent is and don't like him. They are typically quite willing to substitute one non-incumbent for a different one. This pattern suggests that the Hunt voters don't actually support Hunt, but dislike Cornyn, and Hunt is simply less controversial than Paxton. In a runoff, probably the majority of the Hunt vote will go to Paxton. This is making Texas Republicans quake in their seven-league boots. They don't want to have to spend another $100 million in the runoff and maybe still lose. But if Paxton wins the primary and James Talarico wins the Democratic primary, they may have to spend another $100 million to save Paxton in the general election. Everything is bigger in Texas.
There is a chance that Texas Democrats will save the Republican establishment by nominating Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX). If she wins the Democratic primary, then it is all over but the shoutin' and whichever Republican wins the primary will also win the general election, even if that candidate goes on vacation for 6 months and doesn't buy any ads. Even with an ideal candidate, it is very difficult for a Democrat to win statewide in Texas, and Crockett is not exactly the ideal candidate for a state as red as Texas. (V)