Dem
47
GOP
53
Important special elections are being held in two states tomorrow. First Maine. The Maine House currently has 74 Democrats, 72 Republicans, three independents, and two vacancies. One vacancy is due to Kristen Cloutier (D) resigning to become chief of staff to the state Senate president. There will be a special election in HD-94 in Androscoggin County for Cloutier's seat tomorrow. The other vacancy is due to the death of state Rep. Kathy Javner (R), who passed away in January. The special election in HD-29 (Penobscot County) will be later in the spring, but the district is so red, some Republican is sure to win it.
In the HD-94 race tomorrow, Democrat Scott Harriman won the primary. He is on the Lewiston school board and on the Lewiston city council, so he is well known in local politics. The Republicans nominated Janet Beaudoin, also on the school board. She achieved some notoriety for trying to prevent schools from displaying Pride flags. Kamala Harris carried HD-94 by just 4 points. If Beaudoin wins, the state House will be 74D, 73R. Then, when a Republican wins HD-29 in a few months, it will be 74D, 74R with three independents (farmer William Pluecker, retired teacher Sharon Frost, and former marketing executive Ed Crockett). Control of the state House could be important if Nebraska switches its electoral votes to winner-take-all. Maine could do likewise to cancel out Nebraska, but only if the Democrats have de facto control of the House. Democrats have a 20-14 advantage in the state Senate, so the House is the key. Gov. Janet Mills is a Democrat.
There is an important U.S. Senate election in Maine this year, and another gigantic Democratic blowout tomorrow, as there have been in several special elections this cycle, might be a clue about November. However, a Republican upset would also be a big hint. It is noteworthy that there was an ICE raid in Lewiston in January and February, cleverly called "Catch of the Day." Might that affect the special election? We'll know more Wednesday morning.
Now on to Pennsylvania. The current partisan breakdown in the state House is 100D, 98R, and five vacancies. Two bluish House seats are up tomorrow. The other three seats, up in the spring, are in deep-red districts, so think of the House as effectively 100D, 101R, and two seats up tomorrow. If the Democrats win both of them, they will have the majority. If the Republicans can flip either one, they get the majority.
HD-22 is around Allentown, in the Lehigh Valley, about 50 miles northwest of Philadelphia. It went for Harris by 17 points. The seat is vacant because former House member Joshua Siegel was elected Lehigh County executive in November. The Democratic candidate is Ana Tiburcio, a local school board member for the past 16 years. She owns A & M Tax & Services. The Republican candidate is Robert Smith, a former school board member. He is a program specialist at New Vitae Wellness and Recovery. The Democrat is favored, but an upset is always possible. In 2022, 70% of the registered voters were Democrats. Now that is 53%, a 17-point drop. HD-22 is about 62% Latino and relatively poor, so this could be a bellwether for how poor Latinos are feeling. If you want a detailed description of this race, here is an article about it in the local paper.
HD-42 is in suburban Allegheny County, which contains Pittsburgh. It is also blue. The vacancy occurred when Dan Miller (D) was elected county judge and resigned. Democrat Jennifer Mazzocco is a teacher, union leader, and a Dormont Borough Councilwoman. She ran in 2024 and lost badly. She is trying again. The Republican is attorney Joseph Leckenby. He ran against Miller and lost in 2024. The big issues are affordability and ICE.
Again, while the races in Maine and Pennsylvania are important in their own right, for control of their respective legislatures, what everyone will be looking at is whether they follow the pattern of huge Democratic blowouts in special elections this cycle.
As long as we are on the subject of special elections for state legislatures, there is another state House special election coming up that will attract a lot of attention. It's complicated. The election is March 24, so this is just a heads up. It is for Florida's HD-87, which runs along the coast for much of Palm Beach County. Only 11,000 people voted in the Jan. 26 primary. We don't know if he voted, but one of the eligible voters is one Donald J. Trump, who lives in Palm Beach, smack in the middle of the district.
The vacancy arose on account of, and the election was delayed by, the same person: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Last August, a vacancy arose for the office of Palm Beach County Clerk. DeSantis plucked Rep. Mike Caruso (R) from the state House and made him county clerk. This was a reward for Caruso supporting him in a messy legislative fight last year. State Republicans are getting tired of DeSantis bossing them around, so when DeSantis supported a bill that would turbocharge Trump's deportation agenda, the legislators rebelled and drew up their own bill, the TRUMP Act, which DeSantis opposed. Caruso was the only Republican to vote against it. Unlike Trump himself, DeSantis actually values loyalty, and rewarded Caruso with the county clerk job.
After appointing Caruso to the clerk's job, DeSantis dragged his feet and finally set the special election for March 24, even though a Republican won the seat last time. Now it is scheduled. Trump carried the district 55-44 in 2024.
The winner of the Democratic primary is Emily Gregory, who runs a fitness business for pregnant and postpartum women. The winner of the Republican primary is Jon Maples, a financial planner and former Councilman in Lake Clarke Shores. Trump has taken quite a bit of interest in the special election and has endorsed Maples, of course. Trump knows that a win by Gregory in his backyard would be a black eye and really wants to avoid it. He might even campaign for Maples, although that could cut both ways. It should be interesting. (V)