Dem
47
GOP
53
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) would love to pass another big bill using the budget reconciliation process, but Republican members are skeptical that the votes are there. Republicans currently have a 218-213 majority in the lower chamber, but if one is in the hospital, as Rep. Jim Baird (R-IN) was recently, and can't vote, and when, on Jan. 31, one of two Democrats will win a special election to fill the seat of the late Sylvester Turner, it will make a party line vote 217-214. It would take only two defectors to kill any bill and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is always a wild card.
The chief architect of the first reconciliation bill, Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO), said that a second bill is impossible. That is why he put so many goodies in the first one: He knew there would not be a second one. But Johnson is not convinced. When Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), who represents a D+1 district in the Hudson Valley, said: "We are never getting a second reconciliation bill," Johnson replied: "Take those words out of your mouth." On the other hand, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said: "A lot of members have an interest in doing something. Question is, can we all come together behind the same thing?"
Some members other than Johnson do want a second bill. The Republican Study Group, the largest ideological caucus in Congress, came out with a 10-page plan. It cuts the government budget by $1.6 trillion over 10 years (including cuts to health care and welfare), deregulates the energy industry, and somehow magically creates low down payments for prospective homeowners. The hard-right chairman of the caucus, Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX), said: "The only way forward in this fight, unfortunately, is without Democrats. They refuse to work across the aisle, even at the expense of their own constituents." For moderate Republicans in swing districts, this plan is not going to fly, and without those swing seats, Republicans will be in the minority come Jan. 3, 2027. (V)