Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump's 2024 win was powered in no small part by Latino men, who like his macho style and thought he would fix the economy for them. They are rapidly souring on him. A poll of Latino small business owners shows that 42% say their economic situation has gotten worse under Trump and only 24% say it is getting better. Their top issue is cost of living, double that of any other issue.
This poll is striking because before the election, two-thirds said they trusted Trump more than Kamala Harris to handle the economy. This is a huge hit from a group (small business owners) that normally skews heavily Republican. Although the pollster didn't ask about Venezuela, Iran, or Greenland, we strongly suspect if that had been asked, many respondents would have replied: "Why is he spending all his time picking fights with other countries instead of fixing the economy at home?" Among Latinos as a whole, and not just small business owners, 68% say their situation is worse than it was a year ago and just 9% say it is better.
The CEO of the Arizona Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, Monica Villalobos, said: "We certainly do sense that our members—our clients in Arizona and across the country—feel a sense of betrayal by this administration, given its excessive overreach. Now that we've had a taste of [the Trump administration], I think you're going to see a big shift [in the vote]."
All these data points are omens that the Latinos who voted for Trump en masse in 2024 are not going to vote for Republicans this year. The best the GOP can hope for is that they all stay home, but probably a fair number will decide to send Trump a message and vote Democratic. It is hard to see how Trump can reverse this in only 10 months, especially if all his attention is going to be on foreign policy. (V)