Jul.06

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

The Governors' Mansions Most Likely to Flip

There are 35 states with an election for governor in November. Here is a ranked list of states where a flip has a high probability of occurring:

• Kansas (D to R): Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) is an anomaly: A Democrat elected statewide in a deep-red state. She was lucky in her elections that the Republicans fielded weak candidates. She is term-limited so there is a strong chance that Kansas will revert to the mean. In Kansas, that is red, red, red everywhere. Seven Republicans have filed, with Donald Trump endorsing Kansas state Senate President Ty Masterson. Other serious candidates include Kansas SoS Scott Schwab and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt. Businessman Philip Sarnecki is trying to buy the nomination. On the Democratic side, state Sens. Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson are running along with Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog. Corson is the biggest fundraiser, but Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024.
  
  
• Iowa (R to D): Democrats haven't won a gubernatorial race in Iowa in two decades, but the retirement of Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) might give them a shot in a blue wave. They are running state auditor Rob Sand, a down-to-earth Bible-quoting bow hunter. The Republicans rejected Donald Trump's pick of Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA) and went with carpetbagging farmer and businessman Zach Lahn, who actually lives in Kansas to co-parent children from a previous marriage. While it is not a scandal, he has invested $1 million in a company called FirmTech that markets penis rings and female vibrators. The company is the industry leader in the field of logging nocturnal erections and having detailed data about them transmitted (wirelessly) to the user's smartphone. The product is a real boon for men who like accurate recordkeeping. Iowa is pretty straightlaced and not all parents might want to explain to their children what business their choice for governor is in. Sand has a real shot here. Charlie Cook rates it as a toss-up.
  
  
• Nevada (R to D): Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) is running for a second term. He was the only Republican who flipped a governor's seat in 2022. Now he has to defend it. AG Aaron Ford has the Democratic nomination. Nevada's economy is based on hospitality, and Ford is going to blame Lombardo for hard times. A big problem for Lombardo is that 30% of the electorate in Nevada is Latino and Latinos are none too happy about Trump. Also, the state has a highly transient population, so many voters are recent arrivals and don't know much about Lombardo, so the usual value of incumbency is lower here. Charlie Cook rates it as a toss-up.
  
  
• Georgia (R to D): Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) is term limited. This race also features an extremely wealthy right-wing Republican, Rick Jackson, who bought the nomination with $90 million of his own money, defeating Donald Trump's choice. He is very anti-abortion and is trying to run from remarks that he made earlier that he wants to see doctors who perform abortions be indicted. He also wants to tighten the already-tight restrictions on abortion. The Democratic nominee is the former mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms, who, like 33% of the electorate, is Black. Georgia is an emerging swing state so it could be close.
  
  
• Wisconsin (D to R): Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) decided not to run for a third term, even though he could have. In January, Trump endorsed Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI), which cleared the field. Democrats running for the nomination include Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D-WI), former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and Democratic Socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong (D). Polling is scarce, but Undecided has a big lead at 39%. Second is Barnes at 24%. Rodriguez is third at 12%. Charlie Cook rates it as a toss-up. The primary is Aug. 11.

All five of these could be close, but as we have noted before, races are not independent. Often, when the wind is blowing a certain way, it sweeps in all the candidates from the same party. (V)