Dem
47
GOP
53
As expected, Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) acted quickly to pick a caretaker to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). It's going to be Graham's sister and confidant, Darline Graham Nordone (R). She'll be the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate.
When we wrote up Graham's death on Sunday, we guessed that he'd largely be remembered for his lack of substantive accomplishments and his fecklessness when it came to Donald Trump. We've since read many pieces, from both left- and right-leaning commentators, that make us think we were on the mark.
That said, there is one thing we forgot to include in that piece that we really wish we would have mentioned. Graham was primarily a foreign policy guy, and a war hawk. He wanted money lavished on Ukraine and Israel, and was a big fan of war with Iran and Cuba, and of the invasion of Venezuela. Each of those five positions will please some voters and anger others. Reportedly, Graham was also a Trump whisperer who could sometimes get the president to change course. It is not clear which decisions Graham might have influenced, or in what direction, but in any case, he was one of the few senators Trump listened to. And Ukraine and Israel, in particular, could find their positions weakened by Graham's death.
Graham's departure from the Senate might also have a big effect on committee operations. Nordone has no experience in elective office, and senator is not a job you can learn in a couple of weeks or a month, so she's mostly going to do ceremonial stuff and vote "yes" when Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) tells her to do so. Graham's committee assignments will be divvied up, and the important ones will go to people who are not Nordone. In particular, Graham was chair of the Senate Budget Committee, which is about to do some tricky work, and which is likely to have Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) as its new chair. Johnson is more of a True Believer than Graham, and is less of a savvy operator, so it's possible that he'll try to intermix the SAVE Act with the budget in a way that Graham might not have done.
Graham's preliminary cause of death has also been announced; it was an aortic dissection. In layman's terms, the aorta bulged and burst like a tire that has worn out. A long plane flight can absolutely put additional pressure on the circulatory system, and so it's entirely plausible that the trip to Ukraine was the final straw (though it was just a matter of time, even if Graham hadn't made the trip). The conspiracy theorists think that maybe Russia or Iran slipped Graham some polonium-flavored tea while he was in Ukraine, but there's no reason to doubt the official version of his death.
Trump, for his part, has responded to Graham's passing exactly as you would expect Trump to do. The interviews he's done in the last few days were about 20% saying nice things about the Senator, 20% making jokes at the expense of Graham (especially his golf game) and 60% Trump making things about himself. The President has decided that Graham, though he had no role in drafting the legislation, would love nothing more than to see the pro-crypto Clarity Act passed into law. And so, Trump is telling the members of Congress to "pass it for Lindsey."
Meanwhile, the folks who might like Graham's job have to play things carefully right now. They don't want to appear disrespectful of the dead, but they also don't want their rivals to get a head start. Here's where things stand, as of the moment:
So, it is going to be at least a three- or four- or five-way race, if not larger than that. That, in turn, means two things. The first is that it will be bloody, since the candidates are largely going to run on how right-wing/Trumpy they are, and how horrible all the other candidates are. The second is that it will almost certainly go to a runoff, meaning the bleeding will continue until August 28 while Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Dr. Annie Andrews sits on the sidelines, watching and enjoying her popcorn. (Z)