Dem
47
GOP
53
As we noted yesterday, there are primaries today in New York, Maryland and Utah. Readers have written in with a few useful insights about each state:
E.F. in Baltimore, MD: Yes, Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) is a shoo-in for reelection. More interesting to me is the transformation of our local news landscape. The traditionally Democrat-friendly Baltimore Sun has been purchased by Sinclair Broadcasting CEO David Smith, who has turned it into Fox Lite, with an anti-Moore headline 7 days a week.
Apparently, Moore may have exaggerated his military credentials, many years ago. Yup, Real Amurricans could never vote for someone like that. They prefer Cadet Bone Spurs.
Oh, and there's a couple of local races for county government. Unclear which real estate developer's going to get his lapdog elected county exec. Baltimore County hasn't changed very much since Spiro Agnew was in charge. And a state senator currently under federal indictment for blackmailing a former staffer with a sex tape is going to be reelected. It's OK, her brother is a real estate developer.
Our Take: Which state has the longest and deepest history of political corruption? Could be Illinois, but if not, then it's almost certainly a mid-Atlantic state—New York, New Jersey or Maryland. Or one of the Deep Southern states, we suppose. And yet, J.D. Vance is focused on "corruption" in Minnesota and California. Those two states are actually amateurs on the corruption front.
E.B. in Germantown, MD: I was surprised that you called Rep. Steny Hoyer's (D-MD) MD-05 "the only interesting House race" in Maryland. Here in MD-06 we are absolutely bombarded with ads for former Rep. David Trone (D) vs. Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-MD). Trone is trying to recapture his former seat after giving it up last time in order to run in the Senate primary, which he lost in spectacular fashion despite his massive spending. To me it seems completely unnecessary and egotistical to attempt to knock down a perfectly fine Democrat in order to get your old job back. We shall see if he flames out again, like he did in the 2024 primary against Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD).
Our Take: We would guess the anti-rich-politician vote would decide this one, if not for the fact that even the "poorer" candidate is worth $100 million. Plutocracy, anyone?
P.O. in New York City, NY: I'm a resident of the hotly contested NY-12 congressional district. Some things I've observed in the run-up to tomorrow's election:
- Assemblyman Alex Bores (D) has been very present in the district. I started getting mailers from his campaign and, more interestingly, started getting negative ads, texts, and flyers calling out his former work at Palantir as early as January. Bores was already quite visible in the district, as it's also his state assembly district. He shows up regularly at local events, speaks at 5th grade graduation ceremonies and such. In keeping with that, he's had very consistent ground-game presence, with canvassing teams roaming the neighborhood, distributing fliers, door knocking and the like.
- Assemblyman Micah Lasher (D) wasn't out campaigning early as Bores, but has ramped up in the last couple of months. He's clearly the establishment candidate (with ads featuring Gov. Kathy Hochul, D-NY; Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-NY, etc.). He has some presence (I'll often see signs for both him and Bores in the local bodegas), but seems to be relying on digital media like YouTube, along with television ads during the World Cup. My son has asked me about him since he sees so many of his ads on YouTube, if that's any indication.
- George Conway (D?) has had some, but not much, presence. I've run into his canvassers collecting signatures (I may or may not have called him a "carpetbagger" when they asked for my signature). I see the occasional web/YouTube ad but not much in terms of signage.
- Jack Schlossberg (D)... Who? I've seen some signage, and maybe one canvasser near an early voting site, but not much beyond that. A New York Times article from a while back said he was phoning in the campaign and that rings true. The neighborhood has enough young people that his last name and grandfather won't carry him to Congress.
Our Take: We've seen this called "the most inauthentic" and "most uninspiring" primary in America. That tracks.
R.H.D. in Webster, NY: There is a barnburner primary today on both sides in my state Assembly district, the 130th. This is a red district that includes all of Wayne Country, along with my hometown of Webster, which was attached like a panhandle. That's what strange redistricting will do. The incumbent decided not to run again.
I'm a registered independent, and only party members can vote in the primary, so I will wait until November. But I live with my elderly father and he's a registered Republican. So we've been getting lots of mailings from all three GOP candidates, and it's been interesting.
The mailings tout their conservative credentials and how they will stand up to the Democratic majority in Albany. One of the three candidates is from here in Webster, is a career politician, and wants to get back to the Assembly. Oh, he's in his 70s and has called for term limits. Odd choice. The other two are from Wayne County, I've never heard of either. They're younger. One is clearly MAGA and has implied that he has Trump's endorsement. The other is endorsed by the current assemblyman. These two have been at each other, attacking the other's characters and even using AI. It's a sight to see the red team tear each other apart.
The Democratic side has two candidates who will serve as the sacrificial lamb in November, even if there is a blue wave. One, whom I know, lives here in Webster. He's retired from the military, does a lot of civic work, and chairs two town Democratic committees. I'll probably vote for him in the general.
It'll be interesting to see if the Republicans will unite after this primary, or stay divided. This could serve as a microcosm of the Trumplican Party as a whole.
Our Take: Pennsyltucky is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Kentucky between them. Maybe we should start calling it New Yorkalina—a triangle formed by Buffalo, Albany and NYC with South Carolina in the middle.
M.H. in Salt Lake City, UT: After many years of litigation and opposition by the Utah State Legislature, we now have a fair (Democratic) congressional district (UT-01) in Salt Lake County.
Four Democratic candidates are running for this district that Kamala Harris won by over 20 points. The frontrunner is Ben McAdams, a former state legislator, Salt Lake County mayor, and one-term U.S. Congressman who, in 2019, voted to impeach Donald Trump. He claims he lost his seat over that vote. He is the establishment favorite.
The other three candidates will split the progressive vote and hand the seat to McAdams. Nate Blouin is a current state senator who received Bernie Sanders' endorsement. He has been the most vocal opponent of McAdams, repeatedly pointing out the latter's support from the health insurance industry and other sources that are anathema to progressive causes.
Michael Farrell is a tax attorney whose chief platform is "tax the rich." He is not gaining much traction, but his policy ideas are very progressive.
The rising star is Liban Mohammed, the 27-year-old son of Somali immigrants. He is Muslim, but UT-01 is not as heavily LDS as the rest of the state. He worked in Big Tech. He is very articulate, and he won the support of the majority of delegates at the State Democratic Convention in April.
Mohammed and Blouin will receive the majority of the progressive vote, but McAdams will win. The unopposed Republican candidate, Riley Owen, is relatively unknown. The Democrat who wins today will most likely represent the new Utah district.
Our Take: McAdams is an LDS Church member, the other three apparently are not. Hard to win elections in Utah if you're not LDS.
Thanks to everyone who sent in reports in this week. If you have insight into a local election—House, Senate, governor, state legislature, etc.—please do let us know at comments@electoral-vote.com, preferably with subject line "All Politics Is Local." (Z)