Mar.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

What Did We Learn from the Primaries?

As we noted yesterday, the polls of the Texas Democratic primary were all over the map and largely wrong, as the majority said Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) had a substantial lead. She lost to a Bible-quoting state Rep. James Talarico (D) by 7 points. What happened?

Well, progressives in general and Crockett in particular, keep saying that there is a vast reserve of young voters who are progressive and who don't vote because (in the words of George Wallace) "there's not a dime's worth difference between the Democrats and Republicans." If this is true, there should have been a massive outpouring of support for Crockett Tuesday. Indeed, 400,000 people who had never voted in a Democratic primary before voted in one on Tuesday, and Talarico won a solid victory. Maybe those nonvoters aren't progressive at all. In 2024, the marginal voters turned out to strongly favor Donald Trump. Crockett is a strong progressive who ran a good campaign not marred by any scandals. She was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and she lost big time, so maybe that theory is simply false. Maybe there are no secret progressives just waiting for the right candidate.

Another observation is that Talarico made a big pitch to win Latino voters, especially in the counties along the Rio Grande. He ran Spanish-language ads during futból matches, during the Premio Lo Nuestro music awards, and on TikTok. In counties with 60% or more Latinos, Talarico outperformed Crockett 62% to 35%. In these ads, Talarico emphasized his deep religious feelings, family values, jobs, and general moderation. He campaigned heavily in person in Latino counties and met the voters where they were and it worked. In contrast, Crockett campaigned on a base-only strategy. She said she was the one who would get great turnout among base voters.

Talarico's emphasis on Latinos and Spanish-language ads might be the key to why the polls were off. It is possible—we don't know—that the polls were only in English and failed to reflect Talarico's enormous support among Spanish speakers, who may have ignored attempts to be polled in English.

One Democratic strategist also noted that Talarico's campaign was modern but also professional. Crockett's campaign was modern but not professional. Talarico listened carefully to the experienced consultants and was very disciplined. He ran carefully designed ads, had many volunteers knocking on doors, sent out flyers, held rallies, was online everywhere, and stayed entirely on message, which was largely about progressive Christianity. In the final 4 days, he held 130 events in 40 cities and had the backing of 30,000 volunteers knocking on doors. He listened to seasoned consultants and ran an extremely traditional campaign.

Crockett didn't pay much attention to consultants and traditional ideas of how to run a campaign, thinking that was all obsolete and being a young progressive was enough. It wasn't. What works in New York City does not necessarily work in Texas. Who knew? There is a lesson there: Tailor your campaign (and your candidate) to your state or district.

Could the Democrats finally, after three decades of fruitlessly trying, finally catch the great white whale—winning a Senate seat in Texas? G. Elliott Morris crunched the numbers and has some thoughts on the subject:

• Paxton: If Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) wins the runoff, it is probably game over for the Democrats. In case, you were thinking of organizing a big ratfu**ing campaign, sorry. People who voted in the Democratic primary may not vote in the Republican runoff. Unless Donald Trump quickly deserts the very MAGAy Ken Paxton and supports the RINO Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Republicans are going to have to spend another $100 million in an attempt to stop Paxton. Every penny nickel they spend on Texas is a nickel they can't spend in Alaska and Ohio, which have critical Senate races. Talarico, with his faith-based message, could do well against the corrupt adulterer Paxton in rural Republican strongholds. He is the first Democrat in memory who could actually peel off rural Republican voters because Paxton is so bad. The model is here is the 2017 Alabama Senate special election in which Doug Jones (D) beat the sex predator Roy Moore (R).
  
  There is one caveat to the ratfu**ing point, however. Anyone who has already cast a ballot is locked in to whatever party they voted for. However, those who have not cast a ballot are still free agents. It is possible that some number of voters who want to see Talarico win, and who did not cast ballots on Tuesday, will sign up as "Republicans" so they can vote for Paxton and try to stick the GOP with the worse candidate.
  
  
• Unfavorability: Recent polls have shown that independents do not like Paxton or Cornyn. Of the five candidates in Tuesday's primaries, Paxton and Cornyn are tied with the highest unfavorable rating at 48%. Talarico is at 23%. He is less well known than Paxton, but he is not offensive and his support has room to grow.
  
  
• Enthusiasm: Democratic enthusiasm is off the charts this year in Texas. In Dallas County, 188,000 Democrats voted early vs. 64,000 Republicans. In El Paso, the number of 18-29 early voters tripled and the number of 30-44 voters doubled. Also, 28% of early Democratic voters had never voted in a primary before. There is a lot of evidence for Democratic enthusiasm. During the runoff election, Paxton and Cornyn will be slinging mud by the barrel, which may cause some Republicans to hate both of them and skip the general election altogether since the reelection of Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) is virtually certain and they may not see any reason to bother voting.
  
  
• Demographics: The Demographic coalition is beginning to look a lot like Texas and Talarico strengthens that. An estimate of the Democratic base in Texas is 40% white, 23% Black, 29% Latino, and 7% other. Talarico pulls from all groups. Paxton does not. Also, Talarico pulls urban voters, suburban voters, and even some rural voters. Paxton does poorly in cities, except for Sodom and Gomorrah.
  
  
• Latinos: Latinos are moving away from Republicans nationwide, but especially in Texas. Might this have something to do with ICE snatching brown people off the streets and locking them in detention camps for deportation? On Jan. 31, there was a special election in Texas SD-09 in which Taylor Rehmet (D) crushed Leigh Wambsganss (R) by 14 points in a district Trump won in 2024 by 17 points. Majority-Latino precincts swung Democratic compared to 2022 by 34 points. Rehmet won 79% of the Latino vote in January, and with his faith-based pitch, Talarico is likely to be a stronger candidate than Rehmet.
  
  
• Trump: Trump is actually underwater in Texas now, 45% to 49%. In Texas! So his endorsement might not mean much anymore. He is especially unpopular with independents and Latinos. Paxton has branded himself as Texas Trumpy, which might not be quite the ticket this time around. Trump has gotten the message that he just HAS to step in, though. Late yesterday he said he will endorse in the runoff. Furthermore, he said he will ask the loser to drop out. He didn't say who he will endorse or when.
  
  Our guess is that he will endorse Cornyn because he really doesn't want to lose the Senate, and he really doesn't want to risk hurting his batting average. It would be unpresidented in the extreme for a sitting Republican president to order a sitting Republican senator to drop out in favor of a challenger, even if the president personally preferred the challenger.
  
  An interesting question is whether Paxton will drop out if he doesn't get Trump's blessing. He has his own base and could argue that Trump now supports Epstein and forever wars and this is not what the base wants. Trump could offer Paxton the ambassadorship to Upper Slobovia, but he wouldn't take it. He might make a counteroffer though: "Fire Pam Bondi and make me attorney general and it is a deal." If Trump refuses, Paxton might well continue anyway, which will force the RNC and NRSC to waste another $100 million because even with Trump's endorsement, Cornyn is not a sure thing. Paxton speaks fluent Evangelical and has his own base.

In short, Talarico vs. Paxton would be a real horse race, with a lot riding on the general mood of the country. Morris says that Talarico vs. Paxton would be a genuine tossup, with the Democrats having better odds than they had during Beto O'Rourke's 2018 run against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).

Two other small notes about the primaries comes from North Carolina. Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC) is leading Nida Allam by 1,202 votes (0.96%) with some overseas ballots yet to be counted. If the final result is under 1% difference, there will be a recount.

Way under the radar are Tuesday's primary elections in the North Carolina legislature. There are 71 Republicans (59%) and 49 Democrats (41%) in the state House. On Tuesday, three young progressive Democrats ousted three older conservative Democrats in blue districts. This matters, because the Republican-controlled legislature keeps passing bills that Gov. Josh Stein (D-NC) keeps vetoing. It takes a three-fifths vote of each chamber to override a veto. That works in the Senate, where there are 30 Republicans and 20 Democrats, but not in the House if everyone votes the party line. However, of the 15 vetoes, the legislature has overridden eight of them with the help of the three conservative Democrats who lost their primaries on Tuesday. Once the three new progressives are seated in January, there will be no more veto overrides and Stein's position will be immeasurably stronger vis-à-vis the legislature. (V)