Dem
47
GOP
53
We wrote up the Illinois primaries last week, of course, because that is what we do. That said, we want to circle back, for a couple of reasons. First, we want to point out again that while it was a good night for Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), it was a mixed result when it comes to progressives vs. centrists, with neither Democratic faction coming out on top. It was also a mixed result for big-spending super PACs, who got their preferred candidates in some races, and wasted a bunch of money in others. Of particular interest going forward is that AIPAC hid its expenditures in some races behind "shell" PACs, like "Elect Chicago Women" and "Affordable Chicago Now!" It would seem that the AIPAC brand is damaged, perhaps permanently. If people are now looking for AIPAC shells, some politicians might be leery of taking that money, for fear of damaging their campaigns.
Second, and more importantly, we got a fair number of comments from readers who know Illinois politics better than we do. We expected to run them over the weekend, but then... the weekend posts didn't happen. So, we're going to share a few of them now:
K.B. in Chicago, IL, writes: You wrote: "On the Democratic side, the voters favored the Pritzker-backed Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton (D), who outdistanced the more lefty Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D), 40.1% to 33.2%."
This is not an accurate characterization of the race. Krishnamoorthi—who represents a somewhat swingy district in the suburbs—is widely considered a moderate. He tried to compete with Stratton with a series of anti-ICE ads, going so far as saying that he supported abolishing "Trump's ICE" (note the way this is worded means that he really wants to reform ICE), but it didn't work. Despite heavily outspending her early on and blanketing the airwaves for months, Krishnamoorthi fell far short. Stratton pulled off a surprisingly strong victory, even as Robin Kelly (who is also Black, and ran as the left-most candidate) took about a fifth of the vote.
Stratton relied on support of Pritzker, who has governed as what you might call a pragmatic progressive. The governor has been a vocal defender of immigrants in Illinois, and his criminal justice reforms have similarly made him quite popular with voters on the left. Pritzker certainly wouldn't be confused with The Squad, but he's far from a centrist.
All of these things being the case, I didn't see this race through the prism of left versus center. All of the major candidates ran pretty clearly to the left on immigration, even if Krishnamoorthi has a more moderate track record in Congress. Just as in Texas, where state Rep. James Talarico (D) won the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate as a soft-spoken white progressive Christian, the result in Illinois appears to be more about identity politics and style than strict ideology.
The same cannot be said for Illinois' 9th District, where progressive candidates took a healthy majority. An AIPAC-backed moderate received only 20% of the vote, despite a roughly $5 million infusion of negative ads against Daniel Biss and Kat Abughazaleh. The AIPAC attack ads—both online and in the mail—were relentless, and they didn't work in the 9th District.
It's also notable that the 9th has a very large Jewish community, which apparently supported pro-Palestinian-statehood Biss (who is Jewish himself) in sufficient numbers for him to win comfortably over the AIPAC-backed moderate Laura Fine. If you want to see this as a referendum on AIPAC, their candidate got 20% versus 80% for everyone else. Again, this is a district with a thriving Jewish community, which goes against the pervasive media narrative of lockstep support for Israel.
That being said, AIPAC did manage to push Melissa Bean (D) over the finish line in Krishnamoorthi's suburban seat, although it was much closer than in the 9th District. If Bean votes in lockstep with AIPAC, I imagine that she will be quite vulnerable in two years. She benefited this time around from a fragmented field, and I wouldn't be surprised if Krishnamoorthi attempts a comeback.
I also wanted to add that it's pretty telling that AIPAC was forced to use shell organizations—concealing its identity with innocuous-sounding names like "Elect Chicago Women" and "Chicago Progressive Partnership"—all but admitting that their organization is toxic. The ads didn't even mention Israel. One of their ads tried to boost a little-known progressive, hoping to siphon votes from Biss and Abughazaleh. They even put out ads accusing Abughazaleh of being insufficiently progressive.
In other words, a dark-money group meddled (and lost) in a Democratic primary using highly misleading messaging and sleazy tactics. AIPAC can't stand on its own two feet in a transparent way. Politics isn't beanball, and I get that, but this crap needs to be called out. It's exactly why voters are so cynical and apathetic. Democratic leaders need to make it clear that undemocratic meddling from right-wing billionaires is unacceptable.
D.S. in Urbana, IL, writes: Begging to differ, there is no way Raja Krishnamoorthi is, as you wrote, "more lefty" than Julianna Stratton. Raja is definitely a centrist in his voting record, refuses to discuss universal healthcare in any meaningful way, voted to fund and thank ICE, and is heavily dependent on funding from AIPAC, AI backers, the health insurance industry, and crypto interests. He would be more conservative than Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL).
Stratton is very supportive of Medicare for All (6 of the 10 Democratic candidates supported universal healthcare), supports abolishing ICE, advocates for criminal justice reform, and is very strong on rights of women, immigrants, disabled, and the LGBTQ community. She is also the only one of the top candidates who unequivocally stated she would not vote for Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as Leader.
I think the final vote shows that Illinois voters saw through Raja's efforts to reframe himself as "progressive light."
A.W. in Pittsburgh, PA, writes: A couple quick comments about the Illinois item: You characterized Raja Krishnamoorthi as "more lefty" than Julianna Stratton, but this is untrue. Krishnamoorthi was, in fact, the most centrist of the three major Democrats running. There are reasons why he drew a lot of support from corporate America and Republican donors, and his voting record in the House is very much that of a centrist Democrat—well to the right of Robin Kelly, the third Dem in the race. (Case in point: Krishnamoorthi, last summer, voted for a resolution "expressing gratitude" to ICE. Kelly voted against.) Meanwhile, Stratton had the endorsement of the very progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).
Also, the Louisiana special election was not a D overperformance. It was a jungle primary, and the combined D and R votes basically matched the presidential result.
Last thing: To call Melissa Bean a moderate is generous. She's moderate in the same way as Joe Manchin or Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME). During her prior stint, she was one of the most conservative Democrats in the House. She will likely be on the right flank of the Democratic caucus, not in the middle.
R.M. in Elgin, IL, writes: As a resident of Illinois I thought I would share my thoughts on the primary results from Illinois.
Lots of money was spent—around $92 million, including a major amount from Pro-Israel aligned PACs. The pro-Israel PACs had a mixed night, going 2 for 4 and losing the higher-profile races. I would get multiple mailings a day from the same candidate—so much money was being spent on TV, social media, mailings, and GOTV. I have never been offered a ride to vote in a primary before.
Good night for J.B. Pritzker, whose endorsements for U.S. senator and state comptroller were important factors in who won.
High turnout for an non-presidential year, with a large turnout of younger voters who voted for the more progressive candidates.
While a lot of emphasis was on Trump's ICE and pushing back on Americans being shot without consequences, the economy is still the number one issue. People saw Democrats bringing electric vehicle plants and jobs to Illinois, while tariffs and international military actions are resulting in everything costing more now, with Donald Trump in charge.
Thanks to everyone who wrote in to help improve on our write-up! (Z)