Dem
47
GOP
53
...Try, Try Again: The Trump administration has twice tried to bring criminal charges against New York AG Letitia James, and has twice failed in spectacular fashion, unable to even secure a grand jury indictment. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte has come up with a new angle; he's made criminal referrals to the Southern District of Florida and the Northern District of Illinois. Recalling that James is accused of committing fraud in securing a mortgage on a house in Virginia, these two places are where the headquarters of the companies that issued her homeowners' insurance are located.
Our Take: You really have to stand on your head to argue that James' mortgage application, even if it WAS fraudulent (and it wasn't) somehow damaged her insurers. After all, they got their money. It's possible that Pulte is just a nitwit who barely understands how the law works, and thinks that this might fly, if he can get the case in a different venue. It's more likely that Pulte is just trying to find a way to kiss the Trump rump, in hopes of a promotion.
A Monument to Bad Taste: Yesterday, Donald Trump unveiled renderings of what will ostensibly be his presidential library. It looks like a knockoff of One World Trade Center, except with one of those 1960s bomb pops stuck on top:
Our Take: What is less surprising: That it's outsized and sticks out like a sore thumb? Or that it's phallic?
Money Moves: A bunch of people who battled the police on 1/6 have just filed suit seeking damages.
Our Take: Does anyone seriously doubt that their attorneys saw the news of Michael Flynn's $1 million settlement last week, and said "Might as well take a shot!" And the administration might well pay up, since it helps Trump to send the message that violent rebellion on his behalf could make you rich.
Crystal Ball: Yesterday, we had an item about whether special elections or the generic congressional ballot are a better predictor of what will happen in Congress (especially the House) in the general election. There's also another useful indicator, namely retirement, which we track here. Already, House Republicans have 36 retirements, which is tied for the most in more than a century (36 Republicans also retired in 2020, an election that actually went poorly for the Democrats). If you add in the seven Senate retirements, then it's the most Congressional retirements for a single party in U.S. history. And, of course, there's still time.
Our Take: Being the party with the most retirements does not always presage loss of the House, but it does 80% of the time. Democrats thus far have 22 House retirements and 5 Senate retirements, so by this metric, they are looking good. That said, don't forget 2020, where the blue team held onto its majority, but lost 10 seats in the House, despite winning the presidential election.
When You've Lost Them...: Perhaps the three most famous outspoken blond women in the GOP have both come out strongly against the Iran War and the coverage of it on Fox's cable channel. Ann Coulter tweeted "Watching Fox News assure viewers the Iran war is going SUPER well and Trump is a total stud is like watching the same network assure viewers that Dominion Voting Systems rigged the 2020 election and Trump was the winner," while Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted "Fox News is now the fake news. Brainwashing boomers to support what we voted against." Megyn Kelly has complained about Trump constantly changing the goals of the war.
Our Take: We don't know exactly how many Republicans these two speak for these days. But even if they only speak for a small segment of the GOP/MAGA electorate, that is a big problem, because MAGA operates on very thin margins in many places.
From Greene to Black?: Early voting has begun in GA-14, to choose a replacement for Greene. Democrat Shawn Harris, who is Black and is a retired general, is campaigning his heart out this week to try to flip it.
Our Take: We remain skeptical that any Democrat, no matter what their advantages may be, can flip an R+19 district. But if it does somehow happen, two things will be true: (1) this will become the "you never know" example for at least the next 10 years, and (2) Republicans will soil themselves, because if an R+19 district is not safe, no district is safe.
Speaking of Thin Margins: On a related note, in a world where R+19 is not a 100% sure thing, then something like R+10 or R+5 is definitely not a sure thing. Consequently, Florida Republicans have become very nervous about a mid-decade re-gerrymander, for fear it could turn into a dummymander.
Our Take: We suspect this will be enough to kill the Florida re-gerrymander. In the end, the people making the decisions are going to be most interested in saving themselves, and are not going to want to risk losing their jobs. Meanwhile, one wonders if Republicans in Texas are starting to get nervous about the haste with which they proceeded to redraw their maps.
Paul for President: No, not the Beatle. He might actually be viable, if not for the fact that he's not eligible. In this case, it is Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who said this weekend he's pondering a 2028 presidential run.
Our Take: Undoubtedly, he's got the vote of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY). That's one down, 80 million or so to go! And if there's one thing people have been clamoring for, it's a Rand Paul presidential run.
And that's the way it is. We have No Kings photos from readers queued up, but this post already has 8,000 words and a bunch of images, so we'll run them tomorrow. And probably Thursday or Friday, too. (Z)