May01

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The 2026 Elections: Janet Mills Throws in the Towel

There have been four polls of the Maine Democratic Senate primary in the past month. Here they are:

Three of those pollsters (all but Emerson) are Democratic houses. So, it is at least possible that the story that the numbers tell is a false one. But it would take an awful lot of squinting to make it so. First of all, even partisan pollsters try to be accurate, particularly in the primaries, because they want to sell their polling services. Second, it would take an unbelievable amount of incompetence and/or manipulation to produce results this lopsided. Third, Emerson is not only NOT a Democratic house, its results lean Republican. And yet, even they see a blowout in the offing.

Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) did not apparently have much enthusiasm about serving in the U.S. Senate, which is why Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) had to twist her arm to get her in. She is also 78, and might just prefer a well-earned retirement, as opposed to participating in the bloodsport that is Washington, DC, until she's in her mid-80s (or 90s). And she can certainly read polls as well as anyone (and so too can her donors). And so, with 5 weeks left until the primary, and with this kind of headwinds, Mills withdrew from the race yesterday.

That means that it's going to be Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) versus oysterman-turned-politician Graham Platner (D). If voters in Maine wanted a choice, well, they've got one. Collins is an establishment Republican, is in her 70s, has vast political experience, and has the kind of "flexibility" that has allowed her to (generally) walk the ultra-fine line between "increasingly blue state" and "party controlled by Donald Trump." Platner is an upstart populist Democrat, is in his 40s, has no political experience, and has both far more principles and far more baggage than Collins. If the story of the 2026 midterms is "throw the Republican bums out" and also "new blood for the Democrats"—and that could very well be the story—then Platner will be the poster child for all of it.

Because Collins vs. Platner was the likely general election matchup, there's actually been a fair bit of polling already. Here are the four conducted in the last month

In contrast to the previous list, we have one Democratic house here (Maine People's Resource Center, again), one nonpartisan house with a Republican-leaning house effect (Emerson) and two Republican houses. Platner is the leader in all four, and the one that's closest is also the one that is oldest. In other words, Platner's lead is real, by all indications. On top of that, by virtue of 30 years in the U.S. Senate, Collins has near-universal recognition. We don't know exactly what the "undecideds" might be waiting for, but whatever it is, it's not "I'd like to learn more about Susan Collins." Given all of this, the Senator is undoubtedly—say it with us—concerned.

We are trying to think of what her best hope is here. Certainly, in Collins' last Senate race, the polls were not good for her, and she still won. So, she might be telling herself that there's nothing to worry about here. However, Maine is bluer than it was 6 years ago, while 2020 was a presidential year with some Donald Trump coattails for Collins to ride, and "throw the bums out" was nowhere as powerful a sentiment as it is now.

We would actually say her best hope is that there's still a long ways to go, and the less-experienced Platner might put his foot in his mouth, or might have another skeleton emerge from his closet (in addition to the Nazi tattoo and the offensive social media postings). This said, we're just spitballing here, and the facts are that: (1) Platner has run a sharp, disciplined campaign, and (2) He's enough a rockstar that his sins seem to be forgiven almost instantly. In several very important ways, Platner is the correct answer to the question: "What would a left-wing version of Donald Trump look like?"

Besides Mills, the other big loser of the day yesterday was Schumer. His handpicked, heavily recruited candidate got run out of the race in humiliating fashion. He's a good party man, so he's already switched his endorsement to Platner (as has his junior colleague, Kirsten Gillibrand). However, if the time has come for the old guard to step aside (or to be pushed aside), well, Schumer is the old guardiest Democrat of all, at least now that Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has stepped down from the speakership. If Platner wins, or even if he keeps it close, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) is coming for Schumer when his seat is up in 2028.

There is one other Democrat—at least, we think he's still a Democrat—who lamented the demise of Mills, albeit for different reasons. We speak, of course, of Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. In an interview yesterday, Fetterman told NOTUS:

Democrats really, really like Platner in Maine, but the Republicans fucking love him. If Maine wants an asshole with a Nazi tattoo on his chest, they get him.

As a reminder, if a public official says something on the record, we do not censor their words.

Fetterman obviously did not intend that as a compliment, but the careful reader will notice that "this guy can keep the Democrats on board AND get Republican votes" is music to most Democrats' ears. In fact, it's hard to imagine a better political argument for supporting Platner. Meanwhile, Platner is undoubtedly devastated that he doesn't have Fetterman's support especially since, last we checked, Pennsylvanians can't vote in Maine.

Too bad a primary that was probably going to be boring will now definitely be boring. But the general election will be a barnburner, so that makes up for it and then some. (Z)