Dem
47
GOP
53
When it comes to military conflict, governments have been downplaying the bad, and exaggerating the good, since at least the Napoleonic period. The Trump administration is pleased to continue that "proud" tradition, as much as it can. How viable that is—in a world with the Internet, social media, and a huge number of people who would like to embarrass and undermine this administration—is an open question.
We suspect the war is going poorly, considerably more so than most Americans know at the moment. Here are the reasons for our supposition:
Those, then, are the latest developments on the warfront.
Also, since we are on the subject, we had a piece last week in which we included this comment: "Iran wants to go back to the 7th century and Trump is willing to meet them about halfway. Siege warfare, which is what he is aiming at, went out of style in the 15th century when the widespread availability of gunpowder made it possible for the attackers to blow up a castle's walls rather than waiting until the residents starved to death." We've written variants of that comment a few times; it's meant to be a quick and at least moderately clever way of reminding readers that this is a fundamentalist and theocratic nation that aspires to do things as they were done in the time of Muhammad (who lived from c.570 - 632).
Still, some readers were not happy. For example, D.G. in Sandwich, NH:
I was very disappointed to read your comments about Iran. You parrot the Trump Administration's propaganda to a 'T.' To wit: You imply that there's a rift between the ayatollahs and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This is unproven. You state that 30,000 rioters were killed this past winter. This is an unproven exaggeration. You state that Iran is operating with a 7th century mindset. Iran/Persia is an extremely sophisticated society which has been around for millennia.
Or S.A.K. in Karnataka, India:
I've seen (V) claim repeatedly over the past few weeks that Iran wants to go back to the 7th century. However, that claim, on closer inspection, is nothing more than a condescending trope. A few points to dispel it:
- Women in Iran aren't mandated to wear the traditional head to toe covering (the burqa) in public (though they are required to cover their head with a hijaab).
- There is no law that stops them from driving cars. Many actually do in the bigger cities.
- As far as jobs are concerned, again, nothing in the law prevents women from being able to work except in certain areas. Societal norms limit their participation in the organized workforce. One area where they are doing surprisingly well is the tech space.
- They are active in STEM fields, among them research in nuclear medicine, especially in the field of oncology.
All this (and much more) despite the crippling American sanctions, which are essentially organized looting.
Normally, we would have run these letters in the Sunday mailbag. But there is another letter that we wanted to pass along, from someone who clearly knows this subject better than we do, that is too long for the mailbag. So, we present it here. The floor is yours, D.S. in London, England, UK:
I'm a long-time reader, but couldn't in my wildest dreams believe that this is the subject that has finally pushed me to write in.
I did enjoy your zinger (Zenger?), when you said that "Iran wants to go back to the 7th century and Trump is willing to meet them about half way." However, since I've spotted this "joke" about Iran on a number of previous occasions, that don't appear to be intended as a friendly running joke (like the ones about the Canadian invasion), I think I should ever so politely object.
I should note for the record that I care nothing for the Iranian regime, I've no ties, never been there—and any regime that ruthless deserves no friends.
However, I think it's an utter misunderstanding of Iran to believe even for a second that the ayatollahs want to return the country to the 7th century. This is a vivid formulation, but a trope that continues the general Western misunderstanding of several centuries of modernization/reform in the Islamic world (see, for example, Christopher de Bellaigue's The Islamic Enlightenment: The Modern Struggle Between Faith and Reason).
It also ignores what the Islamic Republic itself says that it is trying to achieve and what its formal policy documents commit it to. Whatever one thinks of the regime's politics, repression, or regional behavior, its own strategic texts are quite explicit that the ideological project is modernization without Westernization, rather than any rejection of modernity, per se. By way of illustration:
- Iran's 20-Year National Vision (Vision 1404/2025), adopted in 2005 and repeatedly reaffirmed since, sets out an ambition for Iran to become the leading country in its region in economy, science, and technology. This is reaffirmed in the latest 5-year plan. The English text emphasizes knowledge production, technological capability, full employment, public health and welfare systems, environmental protection, and sustained economic growth. It explicitly frames these aims as those of a developed society, while insisting that they be pursued "with an Islamic and revolutionary identity," rather than through cultural or political Westernization.
- Iran consistently ranks among the top 5-10 nations globally in nanotechnology research and publications—and through the Iran Nanotechnology Innovation Council, the government invests in commercializing nanoproducts in medicine, water purification and construction. Iran now produces 95% of its domestic medicine needs (which it has to, due to Western sanctions), and is a regional leader in stem cell research and the production of biosimilar drugs. There are 40 science/tech parks across the country, which offer tax breaks and infrastructure for startups. The Iranian space/satellite industry is explicitly intended to pursue civilian (as well as military) goals, such as tracking drought/desertification.
- U.N. Development Programme documents for 2023-27 note that it is "aligned with the 20 Year National Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the country's Five-Year Development Plan as well as the UNDP Strategic Plan. It derives its priorities directly from the UNSDCF, which stresses the need to achieve more sustainable and equitable economic growth, while addressing issues creating vulnerability and risk." While the UNDP makes no comment on the capacity of Iran's government to achieve these goals (which are no doubt lower now than they were at the time the document was written), these clearly support a contention that the government intends to improve (not abandon) modern state capacity.
- The late and unlamented Supreme Leader made a declaration in 2014 on the "General Policies of the Resistance Economy" which has been caricatured as calling for a sort of medieval autarchy, but on closer reading actually reads as a form of modern, state-led economic nationalism. It places heavy emphasis on science and technology, entrepreneurship, value-added industry, a knowledge-based economy, reduced reliance on raw-oil exports, banking and fiscal reform and outward-looking economic engagement on Iran's own terms.
This is what the Islamic Republic's leaders said they wanted. It is, of course, quite another thing to believe that they are capable of achieving meaningful economy-wide modernization and reform. By the end of 2025 (i.e., well before this current war), Iran's position was already lamentable; and since much of this was due to mismanagement, they only have themselves to blame. More than 80% of the country faces water stress (including Tehran itself), mostly due to awful policies on water use and mismanagement of dam projects. Despite holding the world's second-largest gas and third-largest oil reserves, Iran has seen chronic electricity and gas shortages and rolling blackouts since 2024-25. This is largely due to underinvestment in infrastructure and rent-seeking behavior by the IRGC. The economy remains utterly dependent on hydrocarbon exports—which are now blockaded.
As I said, I hold no candle for the current Iranian regime. Their coercive social controls, diabolical human-rights record, and their propensity for making friends with militias, terrorists and hostile state actors (from Russia to Yemen) is all awful. But it cheapens debate if we caricature the ayatollahs as simply aspiring to the 7th century, or for "72 virgins."
I greatly appreciated your corrective posts about Chinese technological progress over the past few months—perhaps it's also worth something similar re: Iran. After all, it's a country of nearly 100m people, almost none of whom want to live in the past.
We thank everyone who wrote in to enlighten us. At least we (and the readers) can try to understand, even if certain fellows in not-quite-round offices have no interest in doing so. (Z)