Dem
54
GOP
46
In yet another sign of the Democrats' momentum, the Cook Political Report just moved another batch of 12 House races
toward the Democrats—and zero races toward the Republicans. Last week we had an
item
about how the Cook Political Report is regarded with awe in D.C. because 97% of its "likely" candidates win and 94% of
its "lean" candidates win. This new batch of changes isn't going to bring much joy to Mudville the NRCC
headquarters. Here is the
list:
| District | Incumbent | Old Rating | New Rating |
| OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur (D) | Toss Up | Lean D |
| PA-08 | Rob Bresnahan (R) | Toss Up | Lean D |
| CO-05 | Jeff Crank (R) | Lean R | Toss Up |
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | Lean R | Toss Up |
| SC-01 | OPEN (Was Nancy Mace, R) | Lean R | Toss Up |
| FL-07 | OPEN (Was Cory Mills, R) | Likely R | Lean R |
| FL-09 | Darren Soto (D) | Likely R | Lean R |
| IN-05 | Victoria Spartz (R) | Likely R | Lean R |
| NC-05 | Virginia Foxx (R) | Solid R | Likely R |
| NC-09 | Richard Hudson (R) | Solid R | Likely R |
| NJ-02 | Jeff Van Drew (R) | Solid R | Likely R |
| WA-05 | Michael Baumgartner (R) | Solid R | Likely R |
There are several important changes here. Moving PA-08 to lean D means a Democratic pickup. Moving CO-05, PA-01, and SC-01 to toss-ups probably means 1 or 2 pickups for the Democrats. Together these represent 2-3 flipped seats. The other changes probably won't result in seats flipping.
On Friday, Cook's Dave Wasserman estimated that the Democrats will pick up 12-25 seats tomorrow, giving them a solid majority. He also said that seats that swung hard to Trump recently are the ones most likely to swing hard back the other way, since the voters there are not reliable Republicans who have voted Republican for decades. He notes the Rio Grande Valley and Western Wisconsin as problem areas for the Republicans. Also, the top of the ticket in Ohio is problematic and that could be felt downballot as some Republicans might be disgusted and stay home.
Another factor that could hurt the Republicans is the 42 open seats. Defending an open seat is always harder than beating an incumbent and more Republicans than Democrats are voluntarily retiring this cycle.
Another interesting metric is where the DCCC is dropping money only 4 days from the elections. Much of this new money is part of the $36 million Mike Bloomberg just gave the Democrats, on top of the $80 million he already gave them. The DCCC is making these ad buys because its internal polling shows the Democrat has a chance. It is putting $27,000 in KS-02 (R+10) and $53,000 in AR-02 (R+8). It didn't disclose where else it is buying ads, but it certainly is buying them elsewhere with a fresh $36 million in hand. (V)