Oct.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 53

Ties 2

GOP 45

Three Election Raters Move Races Mostly Toward the Democrats

Three of the best known election raters are the Cook Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. All three have moved a number of races in the past 24 hours. They use polling data, of course, but also fundraising data, presidential approval ratings, and other data. And they also use their long experience to take into account qualitative factors that are hard to quantify, such as candidate quality and blunders a candidate recently made. Here is a brief rundown:

• The Cook Report has moved three Senate races, as follows:
  
  

  State	Incumbent	Old rating	New rating
  Minnesota	Open; was Tina Smith (DFL)	Likely Democratic	Lean Democratic
  Mississippi	Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
  South Carolina	Darline Graham (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican

  
  Minnesota has been plagued by a $9 billion welfare fraud scandal, with Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) getting the blame. This makes things tougher for his partner, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL-MN). Her opponent, former NFL sportscaster Michele Tafoya, is quite effective at distancing herself from Donald Trump. Polling has been very close. Cook has downgraded Flanagan from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic." This is the only change yesterday, from any of the raters, that favors the GOP.
  
  Cook moved Mississippi from solid Republican to likely Republican. As we discussed on Monday, the Democrats have a strong candidate in DA Scott Colom (and he has Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-GA, campaigning for him). The incumbent, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), is not a great candidate, and the economy has hit poor Mississippi farmers hard. One of the few polls of Mississippi puts Hyde-Smith barely ahead, 47-44. We think that even "Likely Republican" overestimates Hyde-Smith's chances. We think "Lean Republican" is probably more correct.
  
  
• Inside Elections has made substantial changes, moving 5 Senate races, 22 House races and 3 gubernatorial races, all toward the Democrats. Unlike Cook, who uses "Solid," "Likely" and "Lean," Inside Elections has four categories: "Solid," "Likely," "Lean" and "Tilt," for different probabilities. New Hampshire is now "Tilt Democratic" (it was "Toss-up"). Four Republican Senate races that were all "Solid Republican" at the start of the cycle (Alaska, Florida, Kansas and Texas) are now more favorable to the Democrats. Here are yesterday's changes:
  
  

  State	Incumbent	Old rating	New rating
  Florida	Ashley Moody (R)	Solid Republican	Likely Republican
  Kansas	Roger Marshall (R)	Likely Republican	Tilt Republican
  New Hampshire	Open; was Jeanne Shaheen (D)	Toss-up	Tilt Democratic
  South Carolina	Darline Graham (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  Texas	Open; was John Cornyn (R)	Tilt Republican	Toss-up

  
  Alaska, Maine and Ohio are also "Toss-up."
  
  Inside Elections has also moved 22 House seats toward the Democrats. These include 10 GOP-held open seats, nine of which backed Trump in 2024 by 10-20 points. Two important ones are PA-07 (Ryan Mackenzie) and PA-08 (Rob Bresnahan Jr.), which have moved from "Toss-up" to "Tilt Democratic." Here is the full list of changes:
  
  

  District	Incumbent	Old rating	New rating
  AL-02	Shomari Figures (D)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  AZ-01	Open; was David Schweikert (R)	Toss-up	Tilt Democratic
  AR-02	French Hill (R)	Solid Republican	Likely Republican
  IN-05	Victoria Spartz (R)	Solid Republican	Likely Republican
  IA-02	Open; was Ashley Hinson (R)	Tilt Republican	Toss-up
  KY-06	Open; was Andy Barr (R)	Lean Republican	Tilt Republican
  ME-02	Open; was Jared Golden (D)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  MT-01	Open; was Ryan Zinke (R)	Lean Republican	Tilt Republican
  NE-01	Mike Flood (R)	Solid Republican	Likely Republican
  NE-02	Open; was Don Bacon (R)	Tilt Democratic	Lean Democratic
  NV-02	Open; was Mark Amodei (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  NJ-09	Nellie Pou (D)	Likely Democratic	Solid Democratic
  NY-19	Josh Riley (D)	Likely Democratic	Solid Democratic
  NY-21	Open; was Elise Stefanik (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  NC-01	Don Davis (D)	Tilt Republican	Toss-up
  NC-11	Open; was Chuck Edwards (R)	Lean Republican	Toss-up
  OH-09	Marcy Kaptur (D)	Tilt Republican	Toss-up
  PA-07	Ryan Mackenzie (R)	Toss-up	Tilt Democratic
  PA-08	Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R)	Toss-up	Tilt Democratic
  SC-01	Open; was Nancy Mace (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican

  
  Now the three gubernatorial races. All of these are Republican governors who are still the favorite to win, but the chances of an upset are growing:
  
  

  State	Incumbent	Old rating	New rating
  Nebraska	Jim Pillen (R)	Solid Republican	Likely Republican
  Texas	Greg Abbott (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  Vermont	Phil Scott (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican

  
  
• Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved 28 House seats toward the Democrats. This means the number of seats "Leaning" or more to the Democrats is now over 218. In other words, even if the Republicans win every "Toss-up" seat, the Democrats will still get a majority in the House, as far as Sabato is concerned. There are three gradations here: "Safe," "Likely" and "Lean." Here are the changes:
  
  

  District	Incumbent	Old rating	New rating
  IN-05	Victoria Spartz (R)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
  KS-02	Derek Schmidt (R)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
  MD-01	Andy Harris (R)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
  NE-01	Mike Flood (R)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
  NJ-02	Jeff Van Drew (R)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
  WA-05	Michael Baumgartner (R)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
  CO-04	Lauren Boebert (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  MN-01	Brad Finstad (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  NV-02	Open; Amodei (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  NY-21	Open; Stefanik (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  SC-01	Open; Mace (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  TX-23	Vacant; Gonzales (R)	Likely Republican	Lean Republican
  TX-35	New (D)	Lean Republican	Toss-up
  AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani (R)	Toss-up	Lean Democratic
  AZ-01	Open; Schweikert (R)	Toss-up	Lean Democratic
  CO-08	Gabe Evans (R)	Toss-up	Lean Democratic
  IA-03	Zach Nunn (R)	Toss-up	Lean Democratic
  IA-02	Open; Hinson (R)	Toss-up	Lean Democratic
  NC-01	Don Davis (D)	Toss-up	Lean Democratic
  NC-11	Open; Edwards (R)	Toss-up	Lean Democratic
  PA-10	Scott Perry (R)	Toss-up	Lean Democratic
  Wl-03	Derrick Van Orden (R)	Toss-up	Lean Democratic
  CA-13	Adam Gray (D)	Lean Democratic	Likely Democratic
  CA-48	Open; Issa (R)	Lean Democratic	Likely Democratic
  NH-01	Open; Pappas (D)	Lean Democratic	Likely Democratic
  NY-04	Laura Gillen (D)	Lean Democratic	Likely Democratic
  NV-03	Susie Lee (D)	Lean Democratic	Likely Democratic
  OH-01	Greg Landsman (D)	Lean Democratic	Likely Democratic

As you can see, Sabato has moved eight Republican seats that were "Toss-up" to "Lean Democratic." Also, six "Lean Democratic" seats moved to "Likely Democratic," which means they will most likely go blue unless something unexpected happens in the next 2 weeks.

All in all, the picture is increasingly positive for the Democrats. (V)