Dem
53
Ties
3
GOP
44
Today, we'll have a few messages from readers in response to things we wrote, and then a few messages beyond that:
D.H. in Durham, NC, writes: As an informed and concerned North Carolina voter, I appreciated your attention to the race for state Supreme Court justice. This is indeed a vitally important race, not only for the state but for the nation.
North Carolina is essentially a very purple state. A very gerrymandered electoral map for the U.S. House was tossed by a democratic-majority state Supreme Court in time for the 2022 election, which resulted in an even split of our U.S. Representatives. However, Democrats in 2022 failed to pay attention to the state Supreme Court races, which resulted in a flip to the current Republican majority. The court revisited the case concerning the U.S. House map and went back to the old one, resulting in the current 3-to-4 seat Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. North Carolina desperately needs to get the court flipped back, for ourselves and for the country, in order to get the balance of U.S. House seats aligned with the actual voter sentiment in our state. Victories for Democratic justices this year and in 2028 would be just in time for the 2030 census. Getting rid of the gerrymandered state legislature seems incredibly difficult at this point, but one can dream.
W.L. in Springfield, MO, writes: You made three references to Missouri ballot measures in "Some Ballot Issues to Watch." Two of them should get some clarification and one is incorrect.
The correction is related to the Missouri house delegation. The post says "In Missouri, voters are being asked to approve a new map that would eliminate the state's only Democratic House district." Missouri currently has two Democrats in the House of Representatives. This measure is to approve the Republican-sponsored mid-census gerrymandering effort Missouri legislators passed at Donald Trump's insistence. That's the one that is pushing Emanuel Cleaver (D) into a R+9 district. Wes Bell (d) would retain his D+29 district.
The clarification is related to the two measures referenced regarding trans rights and abortion. Yes, they have measures for both on the ballot, but Republicans were sneaky and put them into the same ballot measure. They suspected that voters would deny the attempt to re-outlaw abortion and added the trans rights language to that measure to try to persuade anti-trans voters to vote in number and achieve their goal. So while your post is technically correct, as both appear on the ballot, they should reference one another at least in some way since they are tied together at the bodice string.
D.H. in North Branch, MN, writes: Regarding your commentary that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan's (DFL-MN) 14-point lead over Michele Tafoya (R) in the state's U.S. Senate race is "probably just an outlier"—as someone who discovered your site during my undergrad Sociology years at UW-Madison before 2008, I think there is a real local mechanic behind that NYT/Siena number that outside observers are missing.
What happened in early September, when polls showed a dead heat was a massive, three-part wake-up call across the state.
First, in Minneapolis, St. Paul and key inner-ring suburbs, the reaction was immediate. The organic neighborhood safety networks and school coalitions originally formed to protect kids and families during local ICE and DHS deployments didn't wait for national Democratic apparatuses to show up. The moment that tie poll dropped, those hyper-local networks converted straight into an aggressive voter drive with deep community trust. It was a perfect time for it: They were literally practicing what they'd implemented as part of students returning to classes.
Second, out in the agricultural counties, soaring diesel and fertilizer costs hit a breaking point. Angry farmers and rural workers who felt squeezed are quietly turning away from the GOP ticket, re-igniting the traditional "Farmer" half of our DFL coalition. And don't seem so 'quiet' about it these days.
Third, there's a distinct Midwest religious factor at play. Minnesota's heavy Scandinavian Lutheran, Presbyterian and moderate Protestant communities are finding their core moral values far better represented by current DFL candidates than by national GOP rhetoric.
The outer exurbs are still holding firm for Republicans, but this three-front surge following that September alarm bell makes a major Flanagan shift much more grounded in ground-level reality than it looks on paper. That 42%-42% poll SCARED THE FERTILIZER OUT OF US!
J.L. in Chicago, IL, writes: I think you may be falling into a bit of tunnel vision or confirmation bias or some such thing in writing, "We do not know how [the story that former senator Lindsey Graham paid off male escorts] will play in culturally conservative South Carolina, but we do know that it's certainly not going to help [sister and U.S. Senate candidate] Darline."
Your conclusion may turn out to be correct but I think your certainty is off. It is plausible, especially if Darline Graham's campaign pushes this argument, that there could be a backlash against what might be seen as a salacious attack on a recently deceased person, probably still viewed positively by some or many of those voters, who can no longer defend himself.
It sets her up to say something along the lines of, "My brother was a good man. I loved him dearly and still feel his loss deeply every day. Like all of us, he had his struggles with sin. If these were among them, I forgive him and I believe that Jesus, with whom he now rests for eternity, forgives him. [Except that she would nail the wording better than a liberal Jew in Chicago.] The good people of South Carolina will see this for what it is, a vile attack on my late brother, whose work on behalf of this state I intend to continue for the next 6 years."
J.A. in Manchester, NH, writes: I watched the debate New Hampshire U.S. Senate debate this week between Rep. Chris Pappas (D) and John Sununu (R). Overall, it was lively, but moderator Adam Sexton is pretty adept at keeping people in line.
It was a fairly typical political debate as these things go, and there wasn't a lot of drama. Pappas was good with his responses and overall, didn't make mistakes, other than being a little wordy with his replies.
One thing that stuck out was Sununu's response to which member of his party he respected most when it came to standing up to the President. He invoked Susan Collins. I'm not sure if he watches the news, and I'd bet some real cash he doesn't read Pro Publica. But invoking the senator who consistently tries to have it both ways and has dirt on her hands doesn't play well in a purple state.
But I digress. As I said, it was a lively affair, but I don't think it will move the needle in either direction.
R.H. in San Antonio, TX, writes: I haven't lived there for many years, but there is an election for County Judge-Executive (which is basically like the Mayor) of Daviess County, KY (pop. 103,312).
Charlie Castlen (R) is an undergrad classmate of mine, and Rod Kuegel (D) is a fourth-or-so generation farmer who is part of a multimillion-dollar family operation.
Charlie accused Rod of being a Communist.
Rod Kuegel a Communist? Every farmer in the county has heard about the Kuegel family for 50 or 60 years, but that's the first time anybody called any of them a Communist. Anybody dumb enough to believe that was already going to vote for Charlie anyway.
In response, Rod called Charlie a fascist.
Charlie's always been a right-wing *****, so yeah, I can see that, but there is no possibility Rod has ever advocated seizing the means of production.
T.H. in Newtown, CT, writes: Jen Tooker is quite interested in my vote for State Comptroller, as evidenced by these three mailers:
A couple things to point out, however:
- All three of these completely different mailers arrived to my house, addressed to my household (or Current Resident) on the same day. As someone interested in controlling (or comptrolling) my state's finances, this doesn't strike me as the best way to spend money.
- Nowhere on any of these three mailers does the candidate mention which political party she represents in the election. Odd! (Note that Tooker has the endorsement of the Republican Party.)
J.M. in Arvada, CO, writes: My wife and I moved to Colorado from Arizona 18 years ago, and bought our current house 17 years ago. This year, for some reason, we've started receiving election flyers in the mail about Arizona candidates and issues. I haven't taken too close of a look at them; the recycle bin is on the way back into the house from the mailbox and they go directly in there, but what I have seen suggests these are from the conservative side of the spectrum. I don't know who sold the Arizona GOP a 2-decade-old mailing list, but I hope they made out like bandits. Wasting money mailing Arizona flyers to a liberal couple in Colorado is a great use of conservative funds from my POV.
J.K. in Boston, MA, writes: Here in Boston, I am working the polls, as I have for the last few years. There's not a tremendous amount of drama in our statewide races here in blue, blue Boston, though there are several (9!) ballot questions that could go either way. One thing that struck me was that we had to have a second mandatory training this year on de-escalation techniques if belligerent poll watchers challenge ballots. We also had training on what to do if ICE tries to set up shop at our polling location.
My takeaways from this work and the reason I'm writing in is to say:
- If you are able, being a poll worker is awesome! I am in my 40s, but there are election inspectors who are still in college and some all the way up through retirement age, and we have such fun hanging out all day. It also takes your mind off of thinking about results or national races.
- It's wonderful to know that in the face of all of the threats of violence and insanity with ICE, our focus is always on de-escalation and taking down the temperature. I feel like I should remember my poll worker training when dealing with my 12- and 14-year-old at home!
That is a good letter to end on, as it sets up the items we have planned for tomorrow. Thanks to everyone for writing in. (Z)