Dem
53
Ties
2
GOP
45
A week ago, we compared the current Senate map with the one on that day during the previous (2022) midterms. Now we will compare today's map with the one on Sept. 28, 2020, the last time the Class II senators were up, so this is a true pineapples-to-pineapples comparison. Here are the maps:
This year the Democrats are doing better in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia and North Carolina. But they are doing worse in Montana, Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire and South Carolina. We think that Minnesota and Michigan aren't really worse, just that the recent polls there are outliers.
The comparison with 2024 looked better for the Democrats than the comparison with 2020. Which is a better indicator? Hard to say, so we won't say. However, other factors, like a D+9 generic House poll suggest this will be a good year for Democrats. (V)