Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 310   Bush 217

Data in Excel format
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dark blue Strong Kerry (189)
light blue Weak Kerry (33)
white and blue Barely Kerry (88)
white Exactly tied (11)
white and red Barely Bush (33)
light red Weak Bush (59)
dark red Strong Bush (125)
July 24 New polls: GA IA NV NH OH OR

News from the Votemaster

Six new polls today, four of them in battleground states. The biggest news is that a new American Research Group poll in Ohio puts Kerry ahead again 47% to 45%, with Nader at a critical 3%. This poll puts Ohio back in the "Barely Kerry" category, where it was until yesterday's Strategic Vision poll gave Bush a 5% lead. The difference between the Strategic Vision poll and the ARG poll of 7% is just with the margin of error and could be due to chance.

The other major news is that Kerry is now 4% ahead in Nevada for the first time in weeks. The other four polls confirm their predecessors.

I am looking for a volunteer to help out with a small chore I don't have time for. On July 8, the format of the Excel spreadsheet was changed in three ways.

(1) The column headings were changed
(2) A new column (J) was introduced for ties
(3) The order of the Bush columns (were J, K, L, now K, L, M) was reversed

I would like to to find someone who is willing and able to convert the 45 spreadsheets from May 24 to July 7 (or a subset therof) to the new format and save them in Excel 97 format (which virtually everyone with Excel can read). These spreadsheets have been zipped here. Once these are available in the new format, I can run Eric Paulson's map-making software and get all the maps on the site in the new "mouseover" format. Also, I have some other ideas for extracting useful information from the data, but these require the data to be in the same format. First person to do the job correctly gets his or her name on the site, sort of like a video game at an amusement arcade.

To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right. To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. To help publicize this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.

-- The votemaster Electoral college

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