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Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     50 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel
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strong Dem Strong Dem (43)
weak Dem Weak Dem (5)
barely Dem Barely Dem (2)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (2)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (46)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Oct. 23 New polls: (None) RSS
  Pickups: Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

Since all readers of this site presumably have at least some minor interest in political polling, let's have our own poll. If this feature proves popular, it could be repeated (daily). Please make your choice below and then click on "Vote" to see the results. For purposes of this poll, please consider Bernie Sanders (I-VT) as a Democrat, but Joe Lieberman (D-CT) as an independent. I know this is backwards, but it gives the least ambiguous results. Multiple votes from the same computer will be rejected; if you want to vote more than once, you'll have to enlist your friends to help out. If you want to speculate with real money in political futures contracts, see the Iowa Electronic Markets.

How many Senate seats will the Democrats have in January?
<47 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 >53   

Senate Polls

No new Senate polls today.

House Polls

We have two House polls, one of them quite surprising. NH-02 is a rematch of the 2004 election, in which Charlie Bass (R) beat Paul Hodes (D) by 20 percentage points. Incumbent Bass has been leading Hodes all year, but now we have a poll by the Becker Institute showing a reversal, with Hodes now ahead 48% to 39%. I think I want to see another poll before I believe this, though. In NH-01, incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley is ahead of insurgent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter 49% to 37%. That is quite believable, although it does show a strong gain for Shea-Porter.

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter Jeb Bradley* Oct 08 3 37% 49%   Becker Institute
NH-02 Paul Hodes Charlie Bass* Oct 08 3 48% 39%   Becker Institute


If you missed the site during the weekend, Saturday I had a story about the open seats in Congress. Sunday I had a story about how peculiarities of the telephone system can give misleading House polls.

The sixth year of an administration has rarely been kind to the party occupying the White House. The President's party has historically been clobbered after 6 consecutive years of power. There are too many accumulated grievances and people tend to blame the President and his party. The table below shows the 6th year of all the two-term administrations since Wilson, counting Harding/Coolidge, Roosevelt/Truman, Kennedy/Johnson, and Nixon/Ford as single administrations (in all cases it was a President/Vice President combo). The Greek letter Δ is used by statisticians to mean "change," in this case since the previous election. The purple columns show the net gain/loss for the White House for both the Senate and House. It is not a zero-sum game due to gains and losses of third parties. The only administration not to lose Senate seats was Clinton in 1998, probably because so many people were angrier with the Republicans for impeaching Clinton than for what Clinton actually did. He even gained 5 seats in the House.

Thus based on historical precedent going back almost 100 years, we should expect the Democrats to pick up six seats in the Senate and 31 in the House, not far at all from what most experts are predicting.

Year President Δ Dem Δ GOP Δ WH Δ Dem Δ GOP Δ WH
1998 Clinton 0 0 0 5 -5 +5
1986 Reagan 8 -8 -8 5 -5 -5
1974 Ford 5 -5 -5 49 -48 -48
1966 Johnson -4 4 -4 -47 47 -47
1958 Eisenhower 15 -13 -13 49 -48 -48
1950 Truman -6 5 -6 -29 28 -29
1938 Roosevelt -6 6 -6 -71 80 -71
1926 Coolidge 7 -6 -6 12 -10 -10
1918 Wilson -6 6 -6 -19 21 -19
Mean       -6     -31

Breakdown of the Senate and House elections by party since 1912 are available in Excel format and csv format.

The mud season has started. Here is an example. Forecast: mud for about two weeks, then sunny.

Projected New House*:     228 Democrats     206 Republicans     1 Tie
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-01 AZ-08 CT-04 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 MN-06 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups: IN-07
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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