Aug. 08 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Kerry 252   Bush 286  
Senate: Dem 51   GOP 49  
House: Dem 233   GOP 202  

 
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strong Dem Strong Dem (146)
weak Dem Weak Dem (37)
barely Dem Barely Dem (69)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (37)
weak GOP Weak GOP (66)
strong GOP Strong GOP (183)
  Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  


News from the Votemaster

Here is more data from CQ Politics on how well the 42 new House freshmen Democrats are doing at fundraising. Since they were swept in in the 2006 tidal wave, they could be vulnerable in 2008. All of these Democrats either defeated an incumbent Republican or won an open seat in 2006. No Republican challenger defeated a Democratic incumbent in 2006.

This chart gives a first clue to where the House action will be in 2008. Any Democrat with oodles of money is going to (1) be tough to beat and (2) scare off top-tier Republican challengers. For example, Kirsten Gillibrand is in a Republican district, but with so much money in the bank, any Republican will think twice about taking her on, especially if this means giving up a safe seat in the state legislature.

On the other hand, Yvette Clark has under 50,000 in the bank. But she got 90% of the vote in 2006 and Kerry carried her district by 73% in 2004. She doesn't need any money. She just has to show up.

In the table below, the blue lines are districts that Kerry won in 2004; the red lines are districts that Bush won. The blue lines near the top of the table are probably safe for the incumbent (Democratic district and rich incumbent Democrat). The red lines near the bottom of the table (Republican district and a poor Democratic incumbent) are going to be the Republicans' top targets. These include Charlie Wilson (OH-06), Carol Shea-Porter ( NH-01 ), Michael Arcuri ( NY-24 ), and Steve Kagen ( WI-08 ). For comparison purposes, the median receipts for the first half of 2007 for all House members was about $250,000. Of the new freshmen Democrats, only Charlie Wilson is below that.

The third column shows what fraction of the vote the incumbent representative got in 2006 and the fourth column shows which party won the district in 2004, so R+8 means Bush won by 8% in 2004.

Representative CD 2006 House Kerry-Bush Receipts Spending Cash June 30
Kirsten Gillibrand NY-20 53% R+8 $1,387,705 $302,162 $1,129,507
Joe Sestak PA-07 56% D+6 $976,107 $114,456 $1,072,436
Ron Klein FL-22 51% D+2 $1,258,093 $244,116 $1,014,964
Patrick Murphy PA-08 50% D+3 $1,127,818 $180,719 $964,821
Gabrielle Giffords AZ-08 54% R+7 $908,494 $108,685 $941,489
Christopher Murphy CT-05 56% D+0 $834,272 $104,328 $780,646
Tim Mahoney FL-16 50% R+10 $867,405 $159,558 $763,336
John Hall NY-19 51% R+8 $769,633 $166,493 $665,931
Jerry McNerney CA-11 53% R+9 $823,293 $209,070 $662,545
Joe Courtney CT-02 50% D+10 $626,044 $123,106 $558,706
Ciro Rodriguez TX-23 54% R+14 $473,168 $122,827 $549,371
Baron Hill IN-09 50% R+19 $631,902 $122,995 $543,989
Harry Mitchell AZ-05 50% R+9 $590,603 $80,918 $530,680
Jason Altmire PA-04 52% R+9 $615,010 $155,730 $514,110
Tim Walz MN-01 53% R+4 $635,545 $211,048 $502,601
Heath Shuler NC-11 54% R+14 $524,122 $98,467 $470,108
John Yarmuth KY-03 51% D+2 $552,538 $122,608 $455,979
Peter Welch VT-AL 53% D+20 $179,886 $56,249 $451,987
Christopher Carney PA-10 53% R+20 $535,608 $108,075 $445,060
Nick Lampson TX-22 52% R+29 $507,927 $223,210 $441,049
Zack Space OH-18 62% R+15 $542,363 $130,672 $439,148
Brad Ellsworth IN-08 61% R+24 $499,360 $94,558 $432,418
Joe Donnelly IN-02 54% R+13 $646,255 $236,622 $411,327
Paul Hodes NH-02 53% D+5 $550,254 $170,134 $391,813
John Sarbanes MD-03 64% D+9 $474,297 $152,552 $388,736
Nancy Boyda KS-02 51% R+20 $374,471 $62,100 $346,903
Ed Perlmutter CO-07 55% D+3 $473,741 $186,433 $338,309
Steve Kagen WI-08 51% R+11 $372,165 $87,841 $336,725
Michael Arcuri NY-24 54% R+6 $418,208 $128,426 $325,289
Mazie Hirono HI-02 61% D+12 $366,388 $127,461 $295,701
Carol Shea-Porter NH-01 51% R+3 $262,541 $75,744 $255,511
Steve Cohen TN-09 60% D+41 $136,674 $10,703 $254,910
Dave Loebsack IA-02 51% D+11 $293,945 $75,544 $251,654
Bruce Braley IA-01 55% D+7 $212,874 $104,723 $220,445
Charlie Wilson OH-06 62% R+1 $227,637 $80,956 $206,364
Kathy Castor FL-11 70% D+20 $136,849 $93,309 $194,987
Keith Ellison MN-05 56% D+43 $216,450 $45,506 $179,865
Phil Hare IL-17 57% D+3 $220,837 $126,477 $150,485
Betty Sutton OH-13 61% D+12 $141,470 $84,307 $63,622
Albio Sires NJ-13 79% D+37 $226,874 $186,535 $57,464
Yvette Clarke NY-11 90% D+73 $105,617 $98,816 $49,027
Hank Johnson GA-04 75% D+44 $110,335 $100,248 $21,926

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

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