Jun. 19 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 344   McCain 194  
Senate Dem 56   GOP 44  
House Dem 238   GOP 197  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
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strong Dem Strong Dem (193)
weak Dem Weak Dem (51)
barely Dem Barely Dem (100)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (23)
weak GOP Weak GOP (51)
strong GOP Strong GOP (120)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: AK AR FL ME NH OH PA WI RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO FL IA MO NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

News from the Votemaster

The site was attacked yesterday and we were down for 6 hours. And I was in an airplane much of that time and didn't know until I got to my hotel. None of the other people working on the project were in a position to work on the problem for certain reasons. We're going to spend the next couple of days trying to make things a bit more challenging for future attackers. I'm not going to say "Bring 'em on" like some people have foolishly said, but we're working to improve security a bit. As mentioned yesterday, because I am traveling this week and next, updates may be a bit erratic but in principle the most recent page should always be available, even if it is outdated. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Is Barack Obama a liberal? The National Journal said so based on one metric and the Republicans have been using this in their talking points every since. But there are many ways to measure a senators's voting record. Our measurements, based on what liberal groups like ACLU and NARAL think of him, rank him as 42nd. And what do conservative groups think of him? They don't like him, but there are 30 senators who are even worse, that is, who vote the "wrong way" even more often than Obama. How a senator comes out in the ratings depends on lot of who is doing the rating and what their hobby horses are. Our ratings are based on a wide spectrum of issues so if senator is pro-life that does not necessarily mean he isn't liberal. He might be fantastic on labor issues, gay rights, etc. Ditto for conservatives. A senator who is pro-choice could also be a fanatic tax cutter and fan of small government. Take a look at our ratings but also check out CQ Politics' story on ratings today.

If the election were held today, Obama would beat McCain 48% to 39%--that is, Michelle Obama would beat Cindy McCain. While Sen. Obama's wife has been the subject of vicious attacks about her patriotism, her racism, etc., it hasn't hurt her much according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. Michelle has a huge (65%) lead among black women but also a small (4%) lead among white women. Cindy McCain hasn't been in the news much but she could be in the future. Cindy, who inherited something like $100 million from her beer-distributor father, was addicted to prescription drugs which she later stole. She also had a business relationship with Charles Keating, the crooked banker who swindled thousands of people out of their life savings and went to federal prison for it. Almost nobody knows this but if the Republicans go after Michelle, Democratic 527 groups have plenty of material to work with concerning Cindy.

Here are today's polls. The most notable ones are for Florida. Two pollsters have Obama slightly ahead here although within the margin of error, which is normally 3-4% for state polls. Many observers from both parties have been assuming McCain will win Florida. If he loses it, he's finished. There is no way he can get to 270 electoral votes without Florida. In this light, his new energy plan could be hugely damaging here. He wants to drill for more oil, among other places, off the coast of Florida, something that is very unpopular with Floridians who don't want to see their beautiful beaches (and tourist industry) destroyed by an oil spill. These polls were taken before he announced his energy plan so it could get worse. These results have to be worrisome.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Alaska 41% 45% Jun 16 Jun 16 Rasmussen
Arkansas 41% 45% Jun 16 Jun 16 Rasmussen
Florida 47% 43% Jun 09 Jun 16 Quinnipiac U.
Florida 49% 44% Jun 13 Jun 17 ARG
Maine 55% 33% Jun 16 Jun 16 Rasmussen
New Hampshire 51% 39% Jun 13 Jun 17 ARG
Ohio 43% 44% Jun 17 Jun 17 Rasmussen
Ohio 48% 42% Jun 09 Jun 16 Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania 52% 40% Jun 09 Jun 16 Quinnipiac U.
Wisconsin 52% 43% Jun 13 Jun 16 SurveyUSA

Here are the new Senate polls.

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
Maine Tom Allen 42% Susan Collins* 49% Jun 16 Jun 16 Rasmussen
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 54% John Sununu* 40% Jun 13 Jun 17 ARG

-- The Votemaster

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