Jun. 23 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 317   McCain 194   Ties 27
Senate Dem 56   GOP 44  
House Dem 238   GOP 197  

Senate map and races
Downloadable polling data
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strong Dem Strong Dem (193)
weak Dem Weak Dem (35)
barely Dem Barely Dem (89)
tied Exactly tied (27)
barely GOP Barely GOP (38)
weak GOP Weak GOP (51)
strong GOP Strong GOP (105)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: OR UT WA RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA MO NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

News from the Votemaster

This is not the Republicans' year. There are omens all over the place. Some of them cosmic. As you may recall, Rep. Vito Fossella (R) ran a red light a few weeks ago and was stopped by a policeman who determined that (1) Fosella was drunk and (2) Fosella had a family in Virginia in addition to one on Staten Island. Vito Finito as the tabloids put it. With great difficulty, the Republicans managed to find a candidate to run in NY-13, an evenly split district that is the only Republican-held House seat in New York City. The candidate, Frank Powers, was a rich businessman who could finance the campaign himself, something the cash-strapped NRCC can't do for him. Things were looking rosy for a bit and the Republicans thought they could possibly hold the seat against the Democratic contender, most likely New York City councilman Michael McMahon (Chris Van Hollen's choice) although there is a primary in Sept. Got it so far? Enter the cosmic forces. Powers died of a heart attack yesterday. So it is back to square 1 for the GOP.

Having looked at some of the potential Democratic Veep candidates, now let's look at who is available for John McCain to choose. He is actively trying to woo women distressed by Hillary Clinton's defeat. If Barack Obama picks a man, McCain might try to pick up the former Clinton supporters by putting a woman on the ticket. Suppose he wants to do that. Who's available? Governors and senators are the obvious first choices.

Republican Women Governors

  • Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) is a twice-divorced Jewish woman from a small and very blue state in which Obama lived for a number of years. Doesn't look promising.
  • Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) would drive the media wild. Can you imagine, the elderly McCain paired with a good-looking 44-year-old biker chick? All the reporters would want to go for a ride with her on her motorcycle. She would completely overshadow McCain and make him look very old. She'd be at the center of media attention, but there would be issues whether she is prepared to be commander in chief. She has five children and is strongly anti-abortion, which may help with the base put probably not with independent women.
  • Gov. Jodi Rell (R-CT) is pro choice and too liberal for the Republican party and she is from a small blue state to boot.

Republican Women Senators

  • Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is currently fighting for her political life against Rep. Tom Allen. If she were to be on the national ticket, the Democrats would pick up her Senate seat. Besides, she is from a small blue state.
  • Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) is the wife of former senator and presidential candidate Bob Dole. She has had numerous jobs in the Reagan and Bush 41 administrations. She is definitely a heavyweight with lots of government experience. However, she is locked in a tight reelection battle with Kay Hagan and if she were to drop out of the race, Hagan would probably pick up the Senate seat. That has to be a consideration. Otherwise, Dole would be a solid choice.
  • Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) looks and acts like a southern belle but underneath is a solid conservative and very savvy and experienced politician. She is thinking of running for governor of Texas in 2010, but might be persuaded to take the Veep slot. She would definitely help McCain with women and conservatives. She is not up for reelection this year. Her main downside is that she has close ties to the oil industry. Nevertheless, all in all, she is probably the best choice among the women.
  • Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) will bring up the issue of nepotism very quickly. When Sen. Frank Murkowski was elected governor, he had to appoint someone to his vacant Senate seat. He wanted someone he trusted completely-- so he appointed his daughter, Lisa. She was later elected in her own right, but she has also been involved in a couple of scandals. Seems an unlikely choice.
  • Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) is a moderate from a small blue state. The Base might not like her, but if McCain wants to thumb his nose at them and make a pitch for independents, she might be an option.


  • Carly Fiorina is a name that is often mentioned so we put her on the list. She has a background in business and has been a top McCain advisor on economic policy. She is one of the few women to be CEO of a high tech company, in her case Hewlett Packard. She might be an interesting choice were it not for the minor detail that she was fired by the HP board for incompetence in an extremely visible and public way. If McCain wants to prove that he is just as incompetent as George Bush, picking Fiorina will surely do the job. Oh yeah, and as CEO she fired thousands of HP workers yet when she herself was fired, she got a severance package exceeding $20 million. That's going to go over real big with blue collar workers worried about losing their jobs.
  • Condi Rice has said she doesn't want the job. Besides, she is tied so closely to George Bush that it would make it impossible for McCain to deny that electing him would be Bush's third term. He doesn't need that.
  • Christine Todd Whitman is the former governor of New Jersey and former EPA administrator. She is a moderate and might help bring in women and independents but the Base won't like her.
  • Meg Whitman is the former CEO of E-Bay and sometimes named as a possibility. She is known to have political ambitions and doesn't have the baggage Fiorina has. She's a dark horse though.

Here are today's polls. Nothing really unexpected.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Oregon 48% 45% Jun 17 Jun 19 SurveyUSA
Utah 29% 57% Jun 16 Jun 19 Dan Jones
Washington 55% 40% Jun 17 Jun 19 SurveyUSA

-- The Votemaster

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