Jun. 27 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Obama 317   McCain 194   Ties 27
Senate Dem 55   GOP 45  
House Dem 238   GOP 197  

Senate map and races
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strong Dem Strong Dem (172)
weak Dem Weak Dem (57)
barely Dem Barely Dem (88)
tied Exactly tied (27)
barely GOP Barely GOP (38)
weak GOP Weak GOP (85)
strong GOP Strong GOP (71)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: CO MI MN MS TN TX WI RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IN IA NM OH VA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo SurveyUSA: Obama Just Ahead in Ohio The Political Machine
Get a Political Job! Grand New Party
Turnout is the Recipe for a Landslide Back to Politics as Usual?

News from the Votemaster

Some economists and people who follow business think the economy will get worse. When people feel pain in their wallets, the usual political reaction is "throw the bums out." The effect this year will be magnified because Barack Obama puts the word "change" in every sentence whereas John McCain is running on experience. Oil hit $142 a barrel yesterday before falling back. Not a good sign for a speedy economic recovery.

The Republicans can't seem to find a candidate in NY-13, Vito Fossella's Staten Island-based district. A couple more prospects have bowed out. DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) is playing with their minds there. He just announced a $2.1 million ad buy in New York. (English translation: Hi there, Republicans. Chris here. If you want to run here you'd better have $2 million cash on hand right now before even starting.)

Lots of polls todays. For President, Obama has increased his lead in Colorado to 5 points. This is within the margin of error, but it is also the fourth consecutive poll in which Obama has been leading. If the state were truly a tossup and these polls were like flipping a coin, Obama has gotten 4 heads in a row. The chances of that are 1 in 16. He has solid leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota. The latter could affect McCain's choice of Veep. If Minnesota is tied, Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) could help pull the state over the line. But if McCain is 17 points behind there, Pawlenty won't be of any use.

McCain's lead in Mississippi is only 6 points and could narrow if Obama succeeds in registering thousands of new voters. When a pollster calls up, question 1 is typically: "Are you a registered voter in the state of X?" If the answer is "no" that's probably the end of the interview. Thus as the voter registration drive gets going, the population that is polled will change. About 37% of Mississippi adults are black, and if they all register and vote for Obama, he needs only 25% of the whites. He might be able to find them among young people under 30 and those with college educations. Now Mississippi ranks close to the bottom in terms of number of college degrees per capita, but the number isn't zero. Furthermore, if black turnout is higher than white turnout (historically not true but maybe this year), less than 25% of the whites are needed.

State Obama McCain Start End Pollster
Colorado 49% 44% Jun 17 Jun 24 Quinnipiac U.
Michigan 48% 42% Jun 17 Jun 24 Quinnipiac U.
Minnesota 54% 37% Jun 17 Jun 24 Quinnipiac U.
Mississippi 44% 50% Jun 24 Jun 24 Rasmussen
Tennessee 36% 51% Jun 24 Jun 24 Rasmussen
Texas 38% 43% Jun 12 Jun 20 Texas Lyceum.
Wisconsin 52% 39% Jun 17 Jun 24 Quinnipiac U.

We also have a number of Senate polls. Mark Udall is ahead for the fifth consecutive poll, so he is in good shape in Colorado. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is ahead by double digits so he may survive the expected Democratic wave this year. Probably most interesting is Mississippi where appointed Sen. Roger wicker (R-MS) and former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) are essentially tied. Wicker has never won a statewide election and Musgrove has, so this is backwards from the normal contest. If Obama succeeds in registering thousands of new Democrats--and he is going to try very hard--this will definitely help Musgrove.

State Democrat D-pct Republican R-pct Start End Pollster
Colorado Mark Udall 48% Bob Schaffer 38% Jun 17 Jun 24 Quinnipiac U.
Minnesota Al Franken 41% Norm Coleman* 51% Jun 17 Jun 24 Quinnipiac U.
Mississippi Ronnie Musgrove 47% Roger Wicker 48% Jun 24 Jun 24 Rasmussen
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg* 45% Richard Zimmer 28% Jun 17 Jun 22 Fairleigh Dickinson U.

-- The Votemaster

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