Jul. 07 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Senate Dem 59   GOP 41  
House Dem 255   GOP 177  

2010 Senate Races (colors are from 2004 races for the time being)
 
Downloadable polling data
Previous report
Next report


strong Dem Strong Dem
weak Dem Weak Dem
barely Dem Barely Dem
tied Exactly tied
barely GOP Barely GOP
weak GOP Weak GOP
strong GOP Strong GOP
Map algorithm explained
Senate polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): PA GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA


PW logo How New Media Has Spooked Politicians Nixon Had Plans for Atomic Strike
Political Wire Everywhere Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
Angle Threatens Lawsuit Over Her Website Burr Holds Double Digit Lead

News from the Votemaster            

Poll: Tea Party Supporters Are Conservative Republicans     Permalink

While the media have given the impression that tea party supporters are angry independents who are very unhappy with the health care bill and the Obama administration generally, a new Gallup poll shows otherwise. The poll shows that 80% of the tea partiers are conservative Republicans, 15% are Democrats, and only 6% are independents. This is not entirely surprising since the initial organization and funding for the tea party rallies came from FreedomWorks, a group run by former House majority leader Dick Armey (R). In particular, comparisons between the tea partiers now and Ross Perot's supporters in the 1990s have no validity since Perot really did draw from supporters of both parties. It is probably a given that nearly all tea partiers will vote for Republican candidates in November, but that's hardly a surprise if they are indeed nearly all Republicans.

Buck Leads Norton in Colorado     Permalink

Speaking of FreedomWorks, it has just endorsed insurgent Ken Buck over the establishment favorite, former lieutenant governor Jane Norton, in the Colorado Republican senatorial primary. This race could easily be a replay of Kentucky, where Rand Paul defeated the establishment favorite and Nevada, where Sharron Angle did the same thing. The latest poll in Colorado puts Buck ahead of Norton 53% to 37%. As in the other two races, a Buck win would mean a far-right, inexperienced candidate would be the Republican nominee, generally not as good a prospect as someone with experience running statewide campaigns. The primary is August 10.

Bill Clinton Endorses Romanoff in Colorado     Permalink

If Buck wins his primary, it is not yet sure which Democrat he will face in November. The Democrats are also having a primary, albeit a bit unconventional one. The establishment favorite, backed by Obama and most other party bigwigs is appointed senator Michael Bennet (D-CO). Bennet is probably a fairly weak candidate who has never run for any public office until now and hasn't had a high profile as a senator, either. His challenger, Andrew Romanoff, is an experienced politician who was the former speaker of the state house. So the race is not at all the mirror of the Republican battle with a far-left insurgent Democrat battling a mainstream politician. Polling has been scarce in this race and much of what there is comes from either partisan pollsters or the now-discredited Research 2000. Clinton's endorsement could help Romanoff, although it will be widely seen as a thank you for Romanoff endorsing Hillary Clinton in 2008 than genuine support for Romanoff. More important here is that the left is not actively opposing Bennet, as it did Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. While Bennet hasn't made a name for himself, he has voted as a relatively loyal Democrat and generally incumbent senators are not defeated in primaries unless they have really ticked off a major chunk of their base.

McCain Probably Leads Hayworth in Arizona     Permalink

Again, polling has been very scarce in the Arizona Republican senatorial primary, which will be held Aug. 24, and much of what there is again comes from Research 2000. Here is situation is more like Kentucky, Nevada, and Colorado, with a far-right insurgent, J.D. Hayworth, challenging an incumbent, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). But McCain is a far stronger candidate than the other establishment favorites, having already been elected to the Senate four times. Furthermore, he was his party's nominee for President only 2 years ago. That gives him a much deeper pool of support, than Trey Grayson, Kentucky's Secretary of state or Sue Lowden in Nevada, who has never held public office and made some huge blunders during the campaign. Finally, Hayworth is much more bombastic than the Kentucky winner, Rand Paul or the Nevada winner, Sharron Angle. Most likely McCain will survive this one, but without any serious polling data, it is just a guess.


If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button  

-- The Votemaster







Google
WWW www.electoral-vote.com

Recent Headlines (clickable)

Jun30 Research 2000 Called into Question
Jun28 Sen. Byrd Dies at 92
Jun28 Kagan Hearings Begin Today
Jun28 Buck Leads Norton in Colorado
Jun23 Haley Wins in South Carolina
Jun23 Marshall to Face Burr in North Carolina
Jun23 Lee Wins in Utah
Jun22 Republican Gubernatorial Runoff in South Carolina Today
Jun22 Democratic Senatorial Runoff in North Carolina Today
Jun22 Utah Senatorial Runoff Today for the Republicans
Jun22 Runoffs in South Dakota and Mississippi Today
Jun09 Californians Approve Jungle Primary
Jun09 Lincoln Beats Halter in Arkansas
Jun09 Angle Wins in Nevada
Jun09 Rich Women Clean Up in California
Jun09 Haley Forced into Runoff in South Carolina
Jun09 Total Unknown Chosen to Face DeMint
Jun09 Anti-Incumbent Wave Stopped in Its Tracks
Jun07 Halter Leading Lincoln in Arkansas Primary Tomorrow
Jun07 Whitman and Fiorina Leading in California
Jun07 Angle Getting Traction in Nevada
Jun02 Sparks Beats Davis in Alabama Democratic Primary
Jun02 Party Switcher, Parker Griffith, Loses Republican Primary
Jun02 Nunnelee to Take on Childers in November
Jun02 Martinez vs. Denish for Governor of New Mexico