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PW logo Romney Wins in Nevada Gingrich Backer Hints He'll Support Romney
Where Do the Anti-Romney Voters Go? How Romney Uses the Mormon Church
Quote of the Day Gingrich Will Hold Press Conference Tonight

News from the Votemaster

Romney Expected to Win Big at Nevada Caucuses Today     Permalink

A small number of Nevadans will caucus today and they are expected to hand Mitt Romney a big win. In 2008, he won 51% of the vote statewide and he will probably do as well today. About 26% of the caucus-goers in 2008 were Mormons and 95% voted for him. Who said identity politics doesn't matter? A PPP poll released yesterday puts Romney ahead with 51% of the vote. Newt Gingrich came in second at 25% and Ron Paul was third at 15%. But Paul's fans are very devoted and if turnout is high among them, he might come in second. Despite having a critically ill daughter and no hopes of winning the Republican nomination, Rick Santorum is still out there campaigning.

Something different about Nevada this time is that each county can set the hours for its caucuses and they are all over the map. In particular, some caucuses will be held in the evening instead of the usual day time. This is to accommodate both casino employees who can't take time off during the day to caucus and orthodox Jews, who consider caucusing forbidden work that cannot be performed on the sabbath.

Maine's week-long caucuses begin today.

Economy is Improving     Permalink

The jobs picture in the country is improving ever so gradually, but it is improving. In January, 243,000 jobs were created. Many observers think that the election will be decided based on job growth, no matter who the Republican nominee is and no matter how much money third parties spend on ads. If people feel the economy is getting better, it will be tough for the Republicans to convince people that Obama is doing a poor job. What matters is not the absolute value of the unemployment number, but its direction. If it is still high but clearly dropping, Obama can, and will, take credit for it. January's report is the fifth consecutive month where the percentage of unemployed people has declined. If this continues all year, it will help Obama and the Democrats enormously.

The stock market reacted sharply to the new jobs number, with the Dow Jones index up 160 points yesterday to 12,862, the highest it has been since May 2008. Historically, the stock market has been a decent indicator of who wins presidential elections. If it is higher on election day than it was at the start of the year (it started 2012 at 12,218), then the incumbent party generally wins. A rough explanation is that a rising stock market usually means the economy is improving and when the economy is improving, the opposition's slogan of "throw the bums out" doesn't get much traction. As a point of reference, the Dow Jones index opened at 8,280 on Jan. 20, 2009, the day of President Obama's inuaguration. So it is up 55% during his term of office. By way of comparison, the net change from George W. Bush's first day in office in 2001 to his last day in 2009, the Dow Jones was down 29%. Expect to hear these numbers all year long.

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Previous headlines

Feb01 Romney Wins Decisively in Florida
Jan31 Romney Set to Win Big in Florida
Jan31 Santorum Faces Easy Choice Tomorrow
Jan31 Prediction: Florida Will Win Today
Jan27 Romney Takes Off the Gloves in Final Florida Debate
Jan27 Romney Failed to List Foreign Investments on Legal Form
Jan25 Obama Lays Groundwork for a Populist Campaign in State-of-the-Union Speech
Jan24 Romney Releases 2010 Tax Return
Jan24 Role Reversal in the Debate: Romney Attacks, Gingrich Plays Defense
Jan24 Fred Thompson Endorses Newt Gingrich
Jan22 Gingrich Crushes Romney in South Carolina
Jan20 Perry Drops Out and Endorses Gingrich
Jan20 Gingrich Surging in South Carolina
Jan20 Gingrich's Second Wife Attacks Him
Jan20 Romney Loses His Win in Iowa
Jan20 Romney Reported to Have Millions of Dollars in the Cayman Islands
Jan20 The Final Four Take Off the Gloves in the Last Debate before the South Carolina Primary
Jan17 Hard-Hitting Debate in South Carolina Changes Nothing
Jan16 Huntsman Expected to Drop Out Today and Endorse Romney
Jan16 Why is the Republican Field So Weak?
Jan16 South Carolina Debate Tonight
Jan15 Social Conservatives Agree to Back Santorum
Jan13 Eleventh Commandment Repealed
Jan11 NH: Romney 39%, Paul 23%, Huntsman 17%, Gingrich 9%, Santorum 9%
Jan11 Charlie Cook: Redistricting is Politically Neutral
Jan10 Romney Leads Going into the New Hampshire Primary Today
Jan10 Gingrich Goes Negative in South Carolina
Jan08 Romney Survives Debate Unscathed
Jan08 Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it
Jan05 Bachmann Drops Out
Jan05 Perry Hesitates, but Stays In
Jan05 Movement Conservatives Attempt to Find a Consensus Candidate
Jan04 Iowa: Romney 24.6%, Santorum 24.6%, Paul 21.4%, Gingrich 13.3%
Jan03 All Eyes on Iowa Today
Jan03 The Horse Race as a Horse Race
Jan01 Happy New Presidential Election Year
Jan01 Iowa Caucuses Are This Tuesday
Jan01 Final Selzer Poll: Romney and Paul on top but Santorum Rising
Dec16 No Fireworks in Final GOP Debate
Dec11 Romney Offers Perry a $10,000 Bet During Debate

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