Obama 332
image description
   
Romney 206
image description
Senate
Dem 55
image description
   
GOP 45
image description
  • Strongly Dem (191)
  • Likely Dem (72)
  • Barely Dem (69)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (15)
  • Likely GOP (16)
  • Strongly GOP (175)
270 Electoral votes needed to win Map algorithm explained
New polls: (None)
Dem pickups:  
GOP pickups:  

News from the Votemaster

Schatz Holds Small Lead over Hanabusa in Hawaii Democratic Primary

In a rare, bitterly fought Democratic senatorial primary, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) holds a lead of 1788 votes over challenger Colleen Hanabusa, with 8000 voters yet to cast ballots in yesterday's primary on account of a huge storm in the Pacific. Under Hawaii law, elections can be delayed up to 21 days on account of natural disasters. Ballots will be mailed to the 8000 registered voters on Hawaii Island who couldn't vote yesterday at the polling places that were closed because the access roads were damaged by Tropical Storm Iselle. It may be a week or more before the Democratic nominee is known. The Republican nominee is Cam Cavasso, a former member of the Hawaii state legislature. He won his primary easily. However, he is a deep underdog in a state that has elected only one Republican senator in its history, most recently in 1970.

Hawaii politics always have an ethnic undertone. When the late senator Daniel Inouye, a Japanese American, lay on his deathbed in 2012 after having served in Congress since Hawaii was admitted to the union in 1959, he asked Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) to appoint Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI), also a Japanese American, to his seat. Abercrombie ignored him and appointed his own lieutenant governor, Brian Schatz, a Jewish American who was born in Michigan but raised in Hawaii since he was two. Hanabusa promptly announced she would challenge Schatz in a primary and the election is still too close to call. Inouye's widow, also a Japanese American, has supported Hanabusa. Ethnic politics are no stranger to America, and elections like this often play out when a white person runs for, say, Congress in a majority black district.

Update: According to one calculation, Hanabusa would have to get nearly 2/3 of the votes in the precincts that did not vote Saturday due to the storm. This is a higher percentage than she got anywhere in Hawaii on election day. Furthermore, roads are still closed in some areas, meaning that mail trucks may not be able to deliver the absentee ballots and the filled-in ballots may not arrive back in time. Also, under Hawaii law, in order to qualify for a recount, a candidate must have a better reason than "it was close." All these factors increase the chances that Schatz will ultimately win.

Abercrombie Defeated in Gubernatorial Primary in Hawaii

Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) was upset in his bid for reelection yesterday by state senator David Ige, a Japanese American. The lopsided vote was 67% to 32%. Japanese Americans make up 23% of the population in Hawaii but a much larger percentage of them vote than do other ethnic groups in this multicultural state, so their votes are often decisive. It is entirely possible that they wanted to send a message to Abercrombie about his failure to heed Inouye's wish and appoint Hanabusa.

On the other hand, given the vote totals, many people who voted against Abercrombie did not vote against Schatz, so factors other than ethnicity were at play here. One of them may have been the endorsement of Schatz by President Obama. Normally Presidents don't get involved in primaries since it generates bad blood if the endorsee's opponent wins, but Obama owed Schatz one. Early in 2008, when Schatz was chairman of the Hawaii Democratic Party, he endorsed Obama over Hillary Clinton. Obama probably hasn't forgotten, and in the event he did, now-senator Schatz probably reminded him. In any event, Ige will face former lieutenant governor James Aiona (R) in the general election. Although Hawaii always votes for the Democrat in presidential elections, in state elections, Republicans sometimes win. In particular, Aiona served for 8 years under a Republican governor, Linda Lingle (who is Jewish). Complicating the race is the presence of Mufi Hannemann, a Samoan American Mormon running as an independent. Hannemann is very well known in Hawaii since he served two full terms as the mayor of Honolulu, Hawaii's largest city. Hannemann is likely to pull more votes from Ige than from Aiona, so the race is unpredictable.

Federal Judge Upholds North Carolina Law Restricting Voting

On Friday, a federal judge, Thomas D. Schroeder, upheld. a controversial North Carolina voting law and said it can be applied in the 2014 midterm elections. The law was passed by the Republican-dominated state legislature last year. It requires voters to present official identification to vote as well as shortening the early voting period from 17 days to 10 days, ending same-day registration, removing limits on campaign contributions, and ending straight party-line voting, which has been in effect for 90 years. Supporters of the law claim that it will reduce undetected voter fraud. The law specifically states that college ID cards, even those issued by state universities, do not count as valid IDs for voting purposes. Opponents call it a naked attempt to reduce turnout among minorities and young people, blocs that vote heavily Democratic. There will certainly be appeals and the case may well wind up in the U.S. Supreme Court, possibly before the 2016 elections. Judge Schroeder was appointed to the bench by President George W. Bush.

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster
Aug08 Alexander Easily Defeats Tea Party Challenger in Tennessee Republican Senate Primary
Aug08 Walsh Drops out of Montana Senate Race
Aug06 Roberts Beats Tea Party Challenger in Kansas Senate Primary
Aug06 Peters and Land to Face Each Other in November in Michigan
Aug06 Rand Paul is Already Campaigning in Iowa against Hillary Clinton
Jul23 Perdue Wins Georgia Republican Senatorial Primary
Jul23 Supreme Court Will Probably Get to Rule on the ACA (Again)
Jul23 Fiery Pastor Jody Hice Wins Runoff for Broun's Seat
Jul09 2016 Republican National Convention Will Be in Cleveland
Jun25 Cochran Beats McDaniel in Mississippi
Jun25 Establishment Candidate Beauprez Wins Colorado Gubernatorial Nomination
Jun11 House Majority Leader Eric Cantor Defeated in Primary
Jun04 Independent Gums Up the Works in Mississippi
Jun04 Joni Ernst to Face Bruce Braley in Iowa
Jun04 Independent Gums Up the Works in Mississippi
May28 Democrats Escape Disaster in Texas
May28 Republicans Court Disaster in Texas
May21 Perdue and Kingston Advance to Runoff in Georgia Senate Race
May21 McConnell Whips Bevin in Kentucky
May21 Wehby Beats Conger in Oregon
May21 Chelsea Clinton's Mother-in-law Loses in Pennsylvania
May18 How Republican is the South?
May07 Tillis Wins North Carolina Primary
May07 Boehner Renominated Easily
May07 Long View of the Senate
May07 Future Voters May Use iPads
Apr23 Summary of the Prognosticators on the 2014 Senate Races
Apr23 North Carolina Primary is Next
Apr23 Other Southern Races Tight
Apr07 Scott Brown Makes Freudian Slip
Apr07 Republican Poll Shows Landrieu Ahead in Louisiana
Mar24 Methodology Matters
Mar24 Rand Paul May Have to Make a Choice in 2016
Mar11 Version 1.0 of the 2016 Republican Presidential Primaries
Mar11 Tier 1 Candidates
Mar11 Tier 2 Candidates
Mar11 Tier 3 Candidates
Mar11 Hotly Contested Special Election in Florida Today to Fill GOP House Seat
Mar05 Cornyn Renominated in Texas
Mar03 Ohio Eliminates Early Voting on Sundays
Mar03 Travis Childers to Run for the Senate in Mississippi
Feb26 Primary Season Begins Next Week
Feb08 Lt. Gov. John Walsh Appointed to Replace Baucus in the Senate
Feb03 Christie and 2016
Feb03 Update on the Key 2014 Senate Races
Dec19 Obama Names Max Baucus as Ambassador to China
Dec19 Democrats Sweep Virginia Statewide Offices
Nov23 The Senate Did Not Really Abolish the Filibuster
Nov06 Virginia is for Democrats
Nov06 Christie Wins Big in New Jersey