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Projected New Senate:     49 Democrats     49 Republicans     2 ties

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strong Dem Strong Dem (44)
weak Dem Weak Dem (4)
barely Dem Barely Dem (1)
tied Exactly tied (2)
barely GOP Barely GOP (0)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
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Nov. 03 New polls: CT MD MN MO MT NJ OH PA RI TN VA WA RSS
  Pickups: Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

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Senate Polls

We have 19 new Senate polls today listed below, including 10 from Zogby. The strangest one is Zogby's poll in Tennessee, which has Bob Corker ahead of Harold Ford 53% to 43%. This seems way out of line with previous polls that showed a neck-and-neck race.

Missouri and Virginia are still too close to call, as they have been for weeks now. Claire McCaskill is ahead by 3% in Missouri and Jim Webb is ahead by 1% in Virginia, both well inside the margin or error.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Conn. Ned Lamont Alan Schlesinger Oct 30 7 37% 8% 49% Zogby
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Nov 01 1 50% 45%   Rasmussen
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Oct 30 3 49% 43%   Potomac Inc.
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Oct 30 7 49% 44%   Zogby
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Mark Kennedy Oct 27 5 50% 40%   Mason-Dixon
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Oct 30 7 46% 43%   Zogby
Montana Jon Tester Conrad Burns* Nov 01 1 50% 46%   Rasmussen
Montana Jon Tester Conrad Burns* Oct 30 7 47% 46%   Zogby
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 01 1 48% 43%   Rasmussen
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 31 3 46% 42%   Rutgers-Eagleton
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 31 7 45% 36%   FDU
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 30 7 49% 37%   Zogby
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Oct 30 7 49% 42%   Zogby
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Oct 29 10 51% 44%   Opinion Consult.
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Rick Santorum* Oct 30 7 48% 40%   Zogby
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Lincoln Chafee* Oct 30 7 53% 39%   Zogby
Tennessee Harold Ford Bob Corker Oct 30 7 43% 53%   Zogby
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Oct 30 7 45% 44%   Zogby
Washington Maria Cantwell* Mike McGavick Oct 31 7 53% 41%   U. of Washington

House Polls

We also have eight new House polls. The most surprising ones are in NH-02, where Paul Hodes (D) may pull off an upset victory over incumbent Charlie Bass (R-NH), and KY-03 , where publisher John Yarmuth (D) may also pull off an upset over incumbent Anne Northup (R). But all in all, the Democrats seem to be heading towards a massive victory in the House, possibly picking up 35 seats, something nobody thought possible even a month ago.

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
CA-26 Cynthia Matthews David Dreier* Nov 01 3 35% 54%   SurveyUSA
IA-03 Leonard Boswell* Jeff Lamberti Oct 31 2 53% 41%   Research 2000
KY-03 John Yarmuth Anne Northup* Nov 01 3 52% 44%   SurveyUSA
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter Jeb Bradley* Nov 01 4 42% 47%   U. of New Hampshire
NH-02 Paul Hodes Charlie Bass* Nov 01 4 45% 37%   U. of New Hampshire
NV-02 Jill Derby Dean Heller Oct 30 5 39% 47%   Mason-Dixon
NV-03 Tessa Hafen Jon Porter* Oct 30 5 39% 46%   Mason-Dixon
VA-05 Al Weed Virgil Goode* Nov 01 3 35% 61%   SurveyUSA


The final Rothenberg Report prior to the election is out. Rothenberg is predicting a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats in the House, a victory that would rival the Republican tidal wave of 1994. Our best guess is a gain of 38 seats, well within Rothenberg's range. Rothenberg also expects the Democrats to pick up six seats in the Senate and gain control.

Rep. Don Sherwood of PA-10, whose idea of family values is choking his long-term mistress, a Peruvian immigrant 35 years his junior, has agreed to pay her $500,000 to buy her silence, according to an AP report.

In other family-values related news, Ted Haggard, the president of the National Association of Evangelicals, resigned yesterday after a male prostitute said that Haggard had paid him for sex for three years. Haggard has issued the usual pro forma denial, but church officials say the story is basically true. This news item is related to the election because Haggard has campaigned very hard for a proposition on the ballot in Colorado (where Haggard lives) that would ban gay marriages in the state. This seemingly endless series of scandals (Sherwood choking his mistress, Haggard hiring a gay prostitute, Sweeney beating his wife, Foley soliciting teenage boys, etc.) could cause some "family values" voters to stay home Tuesday.

Projected New House*:     241 Democrats     193 Republicans     1 Tie
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-04 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-02 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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